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3 - Assignment Example

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Summary
According to the Hydrogen Now (2014), Scientists believe that the “Runaway Methane Global Warming” will occur because there is an accelerated global warming and it may destabilize the released methane that is currently trapped in the Arctic. This released methane is trapped…
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Assignment 3
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Assignment 3 a) Year Temp 1950 51.43 1951 51.15 1952 52.33 1953 53.39 1954 53.34 1955 51.72 1956 52.35 1957
52.1
Mean
52.08769
1958
51.97
Standard Deviation
0.66706
1959
52.13
Standardized random variable
51.97
1960
51.45
1961
51.88
1962
51.9
z-test = (Standardized Random variable-Mean)/Standard deviation
= (51.97-52.08769)/0.66706
-0.1764
Year
Temp
1970
51.64
53.15
1971
51.71
52.58
1972
51.39
52.41
1973
52.31
52.31
1974
52.3
52.3
1975
51.53
51.71
1976
51.51
51.64
1977
52.58
51.53
1978
51.07
51.51
1979
50.92
51.39
1980
52.41
51.37
1981
53.15
51.07
1982
51.37
50.92
Mean
51.83769
Standard Deviation
0.65483
Standardized random variable
51.71
z-test = (Standardized Random variable-Mean)/Standard deviation
= (51.71-51.83769)/0.65483
-0.195
Year
Temp
2000
53.27
2001
53.67
2002
53.21
Mean
53.21
2003
53.3
Standard Deviation
0.781979
2004
53.12
Standardized Random variable
53.3
2005
53.64
2006
54.32
2007
53.67
2008
52.31
z-test = (Standardized Random variable-Mean)/Standard deviation
2009
52.39
= (53.3-53.21)/0.781979
2010
53.02
0.11509
2011
53.21
2012
55.34
Comparing the two 1st Z-tests of years 1950-1962 and 1970-1982 with that of years 2000-2012 depicts a great difference because the former or earlier years bear a negative value.
b)
Yes, for it contributes to the positivity of the data, hence giving a 0.11509.
c)
Based on these results -0.1764, -0.195 & 0.11509 obtained that shows shifting from negative values to positive confirm the increment of temperatures.
2)
According to the Hydrogen Now (2014), Scientists believe that the “Runaway Methane Global Warming” will occur because there is an accelerated global warming and it may destabilize the released methane that is currently trapped in the Arctic. This released methane is trapped in the methane hydrate deposits, which are very unstable. Past geological evidence shows that there is a huge layer of methane hydrate & permafrost in the universe. Because of fossil fuel burning, there has been persistent build up of c02 that brings about global warming. According to the research on the effects of global warming by computer modeling incorporation, it is evident that we may not have conferring benefits on the carbon sink from Amazon rain forest. Thus by 2100 it will cause an increase of around 5-8 degrees centigrade. Based on the research, it is a serious concern because once the methane release starts, due to the global warming, it would be impossible to stop the runaway methane global warming.
3) A little reported but quite serious global infrastructure problem is the current rate of iron ore/steel usage. Research and report the growth of Chinas use of steel (since the year 2000) and the implication that this growth rate has on the exhaustion timescale of the worlds steel supply. Find data to compare the growth rates from 2000 to 2008 to those for 2009-2012. Comment on whether or not this is the silver lining associated with global economic meltdown.
4) a) Which county is growing fastest and what is that growth rate? (attach a screen shoot of your result); If new schools are built for every new 5000 people, how many new schools would need to be built in this county by the year 2050?
Washington is the county with the greatest growth rate at around 5%
Washington
POP future = POP present * (1 + i) n
= 533, 000 * (1 + 0.05)n
533,000 * 1.054
= 647, 865 (population in 2050)
647, 865 - 533,000 = 114,865 new population
Therefore, 114,865/ 5000 = 23 new schools.
b) Enter the data for Lane country into the tool and attach a screen shoot of it.
Lane County
What do you think the best growth rate would be for the data?
Best growth rate is 2.7 % as shown in the screen shot below
What is the growth rate that you get if you just use the 1950-1980 data?
Growth rate between 1950 and 1980 is 2.65%
In 1980 a standard emerged that there should be 1 county sheriff for every 3000 citizens of any county. Based on the 1950-1980 growth rates, what would be the population of Lane County in 2010 and how many county sheriffs should we have? Bonus point* Find the actual size of the Lane County Sheriff’s department.
POP 2010 = POP 1980 * (1 + i) n
POP 1980 * (1 + i) n
275,000 * (1 + 0.0265)3
Population in 2010 would be 297,447.
1 sheriff = 3000 citizens
? = 297,447 citizens
297,447 / 3000 = 99 sheriffs.
What event or events do you think happened (do some actual research here) on to cause a lower growth rate.
When a country is at the pre-industrial stage, the population grows slowly because the death and birth rates are quite high. During industrialization stage, the food increases, medical care improves, sanitation improves and the death rate increases. At this stage, the population grows rapidly. After the living conditions have improved, the birth rate decreases, which in turn cause the population rate to decrease. After the industrial stage has kicked in fully, the population will grow at a very slow rate (Russell, Herz & McMillan, 2011).
C) Now derive the growth rate for the 1990-2010 data for Lane County. Make a prediction for the population in the year 2040 for Lane county and state how reliable you feel that prediction is.

POP 2040 = POP 2010 * (1 + i) n
POP 2010 * (1 + i) n
349,000 * (1 + 0.0105)3
= 360,109 (population in 2040)
This is a general estimate based on the growth rate from 1990 to 2012. It might not be that reliable as the growth rate may increase or decrease based on factors not included in the calculation.
References
Top of Form
Russell, P. J., Herz, P. E., & McMillan, B. (2011). Biology: The dynamic science. Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole, Cengage Learning.
Hydrogen Now! (2014). Web. 31 July 2014. Retrieved from http://www.hydrogen.co.uk/h2_now/journal/articles/3_Methane.htmBottom of Form Read More
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