Environmental Policy and Energy in the Next 30 Years - Research Paper Example

?Running head: ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Environmental Policy and Energy in the Next 30 Years Insert Insert Grade Insert Submission Date Introduction Global economic growth especially in the new emerging economic giants such as India and China has led to increased demand for energy (WEC, 2008; Churchill, 1993). The production, transportation, and consumption of energy have an impact on environmental sustainability. Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar and bio fuels are the main sources of energy. As demand for energy increases we are not only concerned about the availability but also the reliability of these energy sources. The policies that are adopted should be geared towards invention of new energy sources to support those that are being depleted and the production, transportation and usage must ensure environmental sustainability. This paper examines the trend in the production, transportation, and usage of energy in the next thirty years, and secondly, the environmental impact due the forecasted trends. Trends in the Production, Transportation, and Consumption of Energy in the next 30 years Energy policy is the way in which the government or an entity decides to address energy, production, distribution, and consumption. The components of such a policy may include international treaties, legislations, offering incentives to investment, taxation and other public policies (AuthorStream, 2012). Consumption The global energy demands are expected to rise by 30 percent from 2010 to 2040 (ExonMobil, 2013). This calls for diversification of energy sources, seeking reliable and affordable sources of energy. It is only through this mix that energy can promote economic growth and social advancement. The world is changing with improved standards of life; introduction of modern appliances and fuel efficient vehicles coupled with limitations of greenhouse gas emissions defines our energy usage in future (Gigaom, 2013). It is projected that up to the year 2020 fossil fuels will still largely dominate the energy use. Oil demand will increase due to transportation needs and will fill the gap where other energy sources are not available. Usage of gas for process, heating, and power generation where available, will be on the rise. Oil is expected to remain the major source of energy up to 2040, recording a growth of about 25 percent. Natural gas is expected to replace coal as the second largest source of energy by the year 2025. Gas demand is expected to grow by 60 percent by the year 2040 (ExonMobil, 2013). Its growth is expected to surpass any other energy source. This may be influenced by gas being economical, clean, and efficient source of energy. Gas production pollutes less and meets the world’s future energy needs better. Coal, natural gas, and oil will remain to be the major sources of energy and they are estimated to account for 80 percent of energy by the year 2040(ExonMobil, 2013). Nuclear energy use is also expected to grow because of the rising need for electricity and the desire to reduce CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy usage is expected to double between 2010 and 2040. There is also an expectation in the growth of use of solar, wind and bio-fuels energy. These fuels are expected to have a demand five times that of 2010 in 2040. However, in 2040 they will only account for 3-4 percent of the total world energy (ExonMobil, 2013). This is because greater technological advancement is required in order to harness this energy source. This leads to higher costs of production and hence preference is given to other more economical sources (Lahidji et al, 1999). Production and Transportation Policies in the next 30 years Fossil fuels as earlier stated are expected to remain the most dominant energy source in the next 30 years. Advanced and more efficient technologies are expected to be developed in the production of fossil fuels in the next 30 years. Coal has normally been criticized for polluting the environment, the next 30 years may see introduction of new technologies such as gasification and liquefaction to increase efficiency and environmental sustainability in the production. More inventions in exploration, drilling, and production will be essential in the production and transportation of gas and oil. Remote natural gas reserves may also be exploited due to advancement in transport and the chemical conversion of gas. The exploitation of remote reserves might also be necessitated by the depletion of other sources of energy leading to venturing into untapped energy sources. There will also be need to provide a technical breakthrough in order to exploit non-conventional oil. However, this should be exercised with care in that they should not increase green house emissions. Nuclear energy could play a major role in the sustainable energy sources. However, policies should be adopted to enhance its acceptability; such as environmentally sustainable nuclear waste management systems, developing nuclear reactors with advanced economic and safety performance, and setting out safe sites for disposal of nuclear wastes. The next 30 years will see renewable energy sources gaining more usage and replacing the other sources. High quality energy transportation such as electricity and methanol will be greatly employed. Biomass and wind energy production technologies will be enhanced to become more cost effective. The technical viability of the solar energy production will also need to be improved. However, increase in fossil fuel prices could affect the balance in production, distribution, and consumption of these sources. Most of the energy sources production and transportation largely depend on the fossil fuel and an increase in price might discourage production. Several pollution reduction methods such as carbon capture and disposal will be fully developed in the next 30 years. This will be essential for environmental sustainability. An increase in fuel prices, focus on environmental impact and heavy investment requirements will challenge the generation of electricity in the future. To counter this, several measures will need to be adopted. These include upgrading of old plants to modern standards, enhanced unit modularity, fuel flexibility, and diversification of the energy source and adoption of better pollution control mechanisms. Environmental Impact of the Trends Predicted The trends in the energy use is likely to have an impact on the global warming caused by greenhouse gas emission, mainly carbon dioxide from burning fuels (Ruiter, 2011). The poorest countries despite producing less energy, suffer the most. Climate change can reduce the development gains, cause migration, and conflict. As the energy usage increases, it is important to consider their environmental impact. Green house gas emissions due to production of energy are projected to increase by 57 percent in the next 20 years. Patterns of energy production and usage are normally unsustainable and are a threat to the environment globally. CO2 emissions from burning fuels are a major contributor of pollution. The use of biomass can lead to deforestation (UN energy, 2008). Technological advancement, use of alternative energy sources and proper disposal mechanisms play a vital role in reduction of negative effects associated with increased demand for energy (Watanabe, 1999). The next section discusses the various energy options and their environmental impact. Fossil Fuel Energy It is projected that the ever increasing emission of CO2 will level off and then starts to reduce to a low level. However, there is no accepted time when such decrease will begin and the eventual total emissions. The fossil fuel will continue to play a vital role as an energy source. Pollution caused by these fuels will need to be brought down by reducing the burning of fossil fuels. This will be achieved by increase in usage of other energy sources such as gas and the adoption of economically sustainable means of production such as gasification (Imboden and Jaeger, 1999). The Gas Option Shifting towards the natural gas will not only benefit consumers but will also conserve the environment. Natural gas is readily available, economical, and efficient source of energy. It emits less CO2 than the other major sources of energy. It emits 60 percent less carbon dioxide than coal in the production of electricity (ExonMobil, 2013). In the next thirty years it is expected to play a vital role as an energy source. This will see the reduction in the usage of carbon intensive energy source options. CO2 emission has been blamed for pollution of environment for several decades and its reduction will be geared towards environmental sustainability. The Nuclear Option If the nuclear energy usage was to increase the production of radioactive wastes will increase. Radioactive wastes have very long life spans and are harmful to living things. If proper measures are not put in place this source might cause negative impact to the environment than other sources of energy. The production of nuclear energy might also encourage manufacture of nuclear bombs. However, proper regulations will be put in place to avoid these harmful environmental effects. Examples include agreement on the site for disposal of these radioactive wastes. The Solar Option This option in all ways has more public expectation. It comprises bio fuel, solar cells, and solar collectors. Solar energy globally is seen to a sustainable source of energy. Most solar energy applications have no negative environmental impacts. However, solar production is very expensive and is not likely to play a major role in the next 30 years. Conclusion Local and global energy consumption is likely to increase in future. It is seen that fossil fuels are likely to continue to remain a major energy source. However, the pollution associated with fossil fuel energies is likely to cause more acceptance of gas energy source. This is more environmentally sustainable. The production, transportation, and consumption of energy have environmental impacts. Since the usage of energy is likely to increase, the negative environmental effects are also likely to increase. This is mitigated by proper policies such as more efficient technologies and proper disposal measures. Reference List AuthorStream (2012). Energy Policy of Japan for next 30 years. Retrieved January 22, 2013 from Churchill, A. A. (1993). Energy Demand and Supply in the Developing World 1990-2020: Three Decades of Explosive Growth. Annual Bank Conference of Development Economics. Washington, D.C.: World Bank ExonMobil (2013). The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Retrieved January 22, 2013 from < www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_eo2013.pdf> Gigaom (2013). Energy Policy Trends, 30 Years in the Making. Retrieved January 22, 2013 from Imboden, M. D. & Jaeger, C. C. (1999) .Towards a Sustainable Energy Future in ‘Energy: The Next Fifty Years’. Paris: Organization for Economic Corporation and Development Lahidji, R et al. (1999). The Long-term Future for Energy: An Assessment of Key Trends and Challenges in ‘Energy: The Next Fifty Years’. Paris: Organization for Economic Corporation and Development Ruiter, T. (2011). Home Grown Fuel for America’s Future. New York: National Data Centre Journal. UN Energy (2008). Energy, Development and Security: Energy issues in the current macroeconomic context. New York: United Nations. Watanabe, C. (1999). Systems Options for Sustainable Development. in ‘Energy: The Next Fifty Years’. Paris: Organization for Economic Corporation and Development World Energy Council (2008). The Energy Industry View: Responsible Growth for A Sustainable Future. Retrieved January 22, 2013 from Read More