Energy for Transport in the Year 2035 - Assignment Example

Energy for Transport in the Year 2035 The concept that the world’s production and usage of energy sources for transport will appear quite differently in the year 2035 than it is today is not simply conjecture, it is a fact. Oil had been relatively plentiful and thus inexpensive during the 1900’s which created a global dependency on a non-renewable resource. In addition, if the earth is to avoid further affects of global warming, the societies of the world must vastly reduce collective emissions of carbon dioxide gas. In much of the previous century, oil was largely viewed worldwide as an economic asset and ever-expanding tool for increasing mobility needs. The dependence on oil now threatens many national economies, their security and the environment as well. Not only can the world not endure fossil fuels being pumped into the atmosphere at the current rate for the next 30 years, most experts agree that by then, the world’s supply of oil will be largely depleted. Many forces will act to shape the future of energy as it relates to transportation. This discussion will examine how population growth and urbanisation affects energy consumption and what impact affluence and technological advances such as telecommuting plays on the redistribution of peoples. It will also examine in some depth what influence heightened amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) have on the environment and the practicality of regulations that attempt to curb this output. The use of alternative energy sources in the form of hydrogen and bio-fuels will also be discussed including an overview of each along with their respective advantages and disadvantages. Precisely what types of energy will be produced in the not-to-distant future as well as where, to whom, at what cost and the degree of benefit of every alternative avenue is open to speculation. What is not is the fact that the era of fossil-based energy that allows for mass mobility and fuels the world’s economy is coming to quick and certain end. Energy analysts worldwide cannot agree on the date that the production of oil will reach its peak. Some argue that the world is already at its peak production, others postulate this date to be no later than 10 years from now. The most optimistic of predictions give 2035 as the height of production followed by a steady decline from that point onward. To the ardently optimistic who believe that a problem that won’t occur for 20 years does not need to be addressed yet, industrialised countries are now using more oil per year than can be supplied and is somewhat unnoticeably operating by utilizing a small percentage of its reserves. If the supply has peaked and is on a steadily decline, as some evidence suggests, most all of the world’s economies will be depressed (Drum, 2005). In this event, countries such as Brazil and China will not be affected to the same extent and will likely prosper as these societies have made great strides in converting to alternative energy. Brazil began its conversion to bio-fuels 30 years ago and today imports no foreign oil. In other countries, the U.S. for example, “petroleum supplies more than 95 percent of the energy used in transportation and has done so for the past 40 years. Transportation has remained nearly totally dependent on petroleum, despite significant efforts to promote alternative fuels” (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2000). One of the most important factors when determining future energy consumption is the growth of population which is associated with a rising necessitation for travel and other energy usages. Economic and technological growth has also been shown to increase energy consumption. “Energy consumption per capita grows faster than it has in recent history, as a result of continued growth in disposable income” (“Annual Energy Outlook”, 2006). If a nation’s economy is robust, the people make more money and can afford more children and the government can provide better medical facilities which results in an improved survival rate. “Contrary to the common idea that increased prosperity results in a reduction in birth rate and population growth. Economic development may spur population growth” (Abernethy, 1993). This point of view is corroborated by the upsurge of populations in nations that became wealthy in a relatively short amount of time by means of oil discovery. The Arab nations have experienced a population explosion in the last 30 years and as a result of this elevated growth, “about half the population of the Arab world is now under the age of 15, portending a continued and perhaps even an increase in the population growth rate over the next two decades” (Fernea, 1998). In addition this new, more affluent generation of Arabs represents the first generation to reside principally in urban areas. This was also the case in Britain and in the U.S. when industrialisation brought the farmers into the city for more lucrative employment. Economic expansion is associated with modernisation and industrialization which furthers a nation’s need for energy. “Not surprisingly, per capita energy consumption in the developed world is six times greater than it is in the developing countries” (“World Energy Use”, 2003). The population of the world will maintain its current growth pattern for at least another generation but then, as has been projected, it will begin to lessen. “Increasingly population growth will be the function of population momentum inherent in the age structure, a legacy of previous high fertility, rather than due to underlying differences between mortality and fertility schedules” (Rindfuss & Adamo, 2004). The rate of population growth will slow down as the population’s age increases. In 2035, the population may actually begin declining. If this occurs, the world economy could experience the same concerns that Japan and various European countries are facing at present. In these countries, the government is encouraging couples to have more children so as to not ‘deplete the tax base.’ What will have the most affect to the individual is not the growth or decline of the population as a whole but the migration of peoples from one region to another. “To the extent that the world’s economies continue towards globalization and that rates of population growth continue to vary across nations, we can expect increases in international population movement” (Rindfuss & Adamo, 2004). Urbanisation is a prime example of the pattern in which population dynamics will follow 30 years from now. Whether the population grows, declines, or shifts from place to place, however, one constant remains. The collective societies of the earth beginning with three main economies of the world, Britain, the U.S., and Japan, must wean itself from an oil dependency that is choking the economy as its by-product (CO2) chokes the atmosphere. Conservation practices such as telecommuting and the use of hybrid or alternatively-fueled vehicles, while novelties at present, is projected to grow at phenomenal rates over the coming decades because there is little choice but to do so given the current energy and environmental crisis. Telecommuting is as yet a minor player in the total employment arena though the technological capability is not a barrier, nor is it a question of being most employees’ preferred option. Because of this, the impact that telecommuting might have on a wide-scale is difficult to gauge. As petrol becomes less and less available and increasingly expensive, this high-tech work-from-home strategy will be a necessity, not a luxury. This was evidenced during the British fuel crisis when a sizable number albeit small percentage of people went to work from their home computer (Mandil, 2005). Telecommuting reduces the varied costs of petrol usage including air pollution and traffic congestion and is another situation where the choice to conserve will become a necessity. Energy from hydrogen, an environmentally friendly gas is a much discussed energy source. Iceland is already well on its way to becoming the first nation to generate its power needs by means of hydrogen fuel-cells. A fuel cell is a silently running battery that is continually refilling while generating an electrical current by introducing hydrogen to oxygen, a combination that produces energy. Though hydrogen powered means of transport are not accessible to the public as yet, they are past the initial research and development phase and are presently being demonstrated for both heavy and light-duty load applications. Hydrogen, the ‘H’ in H2O, is, not surprisingly, found in water. The resource is boundless and instead of emitting CO2, hydrogen emits only water vapor. Extracting hydrogen, however, is a costly undertaking at present and is flammable giving concern to safety during transport. “The more widely used method is to split the hydrocarbons in fossil fuels into hydrogen and carbon. This is much cheaper but it defeats the point somewhat as it still uses fossil fuels and creates carbon dioxide as a by-product” (“Alternatives to Oil”, 2002). The use of hydrogen-powered transports would effectively ease air pollution including the manufacturing the gas by this method. This argument can also be used in the case of bio-fuels. “The Energy White Paper (EWP) identifies liquid bio-fuels and hydrogen as the most promising candidates for tomorrow’s low carbon transport fuels” (“Towards a UK Strategy”, 2004). Bio-fuels are derived from an easily replenished source and emit no pollutants into the air. The most common type, Ethanol, has the ability to be mixed with petrol and bio-diesel, a vegetable oil, can be burned in diesel engines without engine modification. This type of ‘green’ fuel can at least be a bridge to the future of energy production and consumption as it can, unlike hydrogen, be used in existing engines. Another benefit of bio-fuels is the peripheral advancement of the agricultural industry (“Towards a UK Strategy”, 2004). Unfortunately, it takes considerably more energy (from high-grade petrol) to create ethanol than it produces. It takes about 70 percent more energy to make a liter of ethanol than is contained in a liter of ethanol. In addition, fossil fuel is used in the production of corn or any crop used for ethanol and by “increasing ethanol production will increase degradation of vital agricultural and water resources and will seriously contribute to the pollution of the environment. In U.S. corn production, soil erodes some 20-times faster than soil is formed” (Pimentel, 1998, p. 5). CO2 is a naturally produced gas but the excess amount that is produced by industrial and transport emissions have become a significant threat to the environment. The technology for producing fuel that emits no toxic gases is a reality, not some futuristic idea, much the same as the overwhelming scientifically-based concerns regarding climate changes due to global warming. The issue is not if global warning is occurring but how fast or how to avoid it because the answers are available and ready to market. The issue revolves around governmental policy, or lack of it. Left to their own devices, energy producers will only act to reduce carbon dioxide emissions when forced by financial considerations. The European Union has introduced a system to reduce carbon emissions but in the U.S., by far the biggest producer of pollutants in the world including CO2 emissions, regulations on industry and vehicles will not likely be forthcoming any time in the near future. The state of California is attempting to regulate CO2 emissions but the legislation is being held up by a seemingly endless number of challenges in court from the automobile industry. While the technology is available that can alleviate CO2 emissions, this is not sufficient on its own to solve the problem. “People think you can do this without the policy, and that’s a myth. Without public policy that imposes a cost on carbon emissions, it’s always going to be cheaper to put it in the atmosphere than to do capture and storage” (Talbot, 2006). Carbon sequestration, the ‘process by which CO2 is separated and captured from energy systems, terrestrial ecosystems (soil, plants) and geological formations (oceans)’ is a method that could significantly reduce CO2 in fossil fuels thereby expanding the opportunity for decreasing greenhouse-effect causing gases. “Many carbon sequestration options are particularly amenable to improving existing activities such as CO2 injection during secondary oil recovery and often provide important secondary benefits, such as improving ecosystems during reforestation” (Wilson, 1999). Carbon sequestration from the land can be practiced now and other methods have great potential to offer long-term solutions for the reduction of CO2. The greenhouse effect occurs naturally acting as a blanket of gas (mainly water vapor) to warm the earth by trapping sunlight that would otherwise have hit the earth then bounced back into space. Since the industrial age began, humans have contributed to these gases through the generation of energy which has contributed to a considerable escalation in the quantity of these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, mainly by the emissions of CO2, which had greatly accelerated the greenhouse effect. “It is feared that this continuing change will lead to a major shift in global climate” (Kelly, 2000). Carbon dioxide emissions are produced by the burning of oil, coal and natural gas, all fossil fuels. The deforestation of the planet is another significant contributor to the greenhouse effect. “CO2 is responsible for up to 70 percent of enhanced greenhouse effect and has a lifetime in the atmosphere of about 100 years.  The amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere has increased by 30 percent since 1750” (“Cause & Effect”, 2006). By the year 2035, CO2 levels will be twice what they were prior to the industrial age, barely a century ago.  Alterations of solar energy discharge are a principal explanation for the variations of earth climate. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere permit solar energy to reach and warm the earth. A balance is obtained between energy that is absorbed and that which is released back into space. If this balance is upset, the temperature of earth will not remain constant and the slightest of variations in temperature makes an immense impact in the survivability of all species on the planet. Regionally, there are several dynamics that could possibly cause climate alterations. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation affects the winter weather patterns in Europe. The occurrence known as the Southern Oscillation including El Niño and La Niña have had a much greater impact on the weather system of the earth than all others. “The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one of the best-defined modes of so-called internal climate variability. It has an oceanic El Niño and La Niña and an atmospheric the Southern Oscillation component” (Kelly, 2000). The ocean experiences discernable temperature changes near the equator. With its origins in the eastern and central pacific, El Niño is the warming effect, La Niña, the cooling. This naturally occurring event disrupts the balance of energy and its effects extend far into latitudes north and south of the equatorial region. “The atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation, is a see-saw in pressure between the eastern and western Pacific, accompanied by a change in the strength of the winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean” (Kelly, 2000). When the pressure drops in the sea-level of the eastern Pacific and therefore increases in the west, prevailing easterly trade-winds grow weaker during this warming event (ENSO) creating devastating weather patterns far away. While Australia and southeast Asia experience severe drought, South America is engulfed in heavier than usual rainfall. “The duration of warm and cold events is about a year and the switch between El Niño and La Niña conditions occurs every four to seven years” (Kelly, 2000). Other than the changes in climate due to variations in the sun’s energy and naturally occurring oceanic conditions, the actions by volcanoes and the effects generated by man have had the most serious impact on the greenhouse effect. Volcanic eruptions shoot tons of rock-like and gaseous matter high into the atmosphere shielding the sun’s energy, creating a greenhouse effect much the same as the human factor which has introduced carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by means of producing and utilizing fossil fuels and a myriad of other toxic substances (Bradley, 2000). “There are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine and bromine-containing substances. Besides CO2, N2O, and CH4, greenhouse gases (include) sulfur hexafluoride, hydro-fluorocarbons and per-fluorocarbons” (“Climate Change”, 2001). Carbon dioxide is not simply defined as a man-made substance that pollutes the air. The gas is naturally produced by many methods such as the decay of animal and plant matter, respiration and from forest fires. These processes though, are natural and have acted in balance with the earth for millennia whereas man-made sources are not and act to upset the delicate balance of nature. Levels of CO2 content in the atmosphere has fluctuated throughout history but many scientists hypothesize that the influx of unnatural CO2 has lessened the atmosphere’s ability to absorb the natural causes of CO2. During Europe’s summer of 2003, excessively strong and frequent hurricanes and the melting of glaciers may very well be the result of excessive CO2 (“Sharp CO2 Rise”, 2004). It bears repeating that the major contributor (70 percent) of man-generated CO2 release is the emission from those transport vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels. Given the fact that fossil fuels are finite and its emissions are threatening every living thing on earth, why have most nations been slow in efforts to reduce the use of oil in favor of more viable energy sources? Oil and coal have served mankind well. Without these resources, the industrial age would not have happened and the economies of the world would be a mere fragment of their present condition. Until recently, they have provided inexpensive energy and only lately have been proven to cause cataclysmic economic and environmental occurrences. To expedite the process of weaning the world from oil, a novel idea has been put forward. The industrialised nations, those who have profited the most by fossil fuel use, should take the lead in the conversion by enacting worldwide pacts and treaties. Less developed regions would be completely exempt from environmental regulation. As the developed nations are responsible for more than 90 percent of CO2 emissions, this method would serve to balance the earth on an environmental and economical level. The emerging nations would make the change as production and global usage of alternative fuels increased. “If the more efficient and cleaner alternative technologies become available at a low enough price, it may prove far easier for developing nations to switch quickly to other fuels” (Rockwell, 1998). A responsible community of nations would have seriously reacted to the energy dilemma 30 years ago. What we face 30 years hence is uncertain but what we do know it will be a world vastly devoid of petrol. References Abernethy, V. D. (1993). Population Politics: The Choices that Shape our Future. New York: Plenum Press. “Alternatives to Oil.” (2002). Disposable Planet? BBC News UK. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from “Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030.” (February 2006). Washington D.C.: Energy Information Administration. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from Bradley, Ray. (2002). “What Causes Climate Change?” Science Alberta Foundation. University of Massachusetts. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from < http://www.sciencealberta.org/html/RLRS_09/main.cfm> Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (2000). “Chapter 5: People, Energy and the Environment.” The Changing Face of Transportation. Washington D.C.: United States Department of Transportation. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from “Cause & Effect: What is Climate Change?” (2001). RisingTide Climate Justice Network. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from < http://www.risingtide.nl/greenpepper/climate/causeandeffect.html> “Climate Change.” (2001). Clean Air Initiative. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from < http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/article-60029.html> Drum, Kevin. (2 June, 2005). “Political Animal.” Washington Monthly. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from Fernea, E. W. (January/February 1998). “A New Generation in the Middle East.” Aramco World. Pp. 24-31. Kelly, Mick. (2000). “The Causes of Climate Change.” Climatic Research Unit. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from < http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/causecc/> Mandil, Claude. (28 February 2005). “Saving Oil in a Hurry: Measures for Rapid Demand Restraint in Transport.” International Energy Agency. UK. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from Pimentel, D. (1998). “Energy and Dollar Costs of Ethanol Production with Corn.” Hubbert Center Newsletter. Vol. 98, I. 2. M, King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies. Rindfuss, Ronald & Adamo, Susana. (January 2004). “Population Trends: Implications for Global Environmental Change.” IHDP Update. Bonn, Germany: International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change. Rockwell, Richard, C. (1998). “From A Carbon Economy To A Mixed Economy: A Global Opportunity.” Consequences. Vol. 4, N. 1. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from “Sharp CO2 Rise Divides Opinions.” (11 October 2004). BBC News International Version. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from Talbot, David. (July 2006). “The Dirty Secret.” Technology Review. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from “Towards a UK Strategy for Biofuels – Public Consultation.” (2004). Department for Transport UK. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from World Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1980-2001. (2003). Washington D.C.: Energy Information Administration. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from < http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/introduction.html> Wilson, John. (February 1999). Sequestration State of the Science: A Working Paper for Road-Mapping Future Carbon Sequestration R&D. Virginia Tech Research Division. Retrieved 31 July 2006 from Read More