Environmental policy and energy in the next 30 years - Research Paper Example

It is forecast that by 2025 natural gas will occupy the second position among all energy sources to be used worldwide. Much of the natural gas demand will be met by supplies from unconventional sources such as shale and rock formulations and it is estimated that its contribution will be almost 30 percent of total global production and the gas from shale and rock can meet world demand for next 250 years based on the current demand levels. China will witness the largest growth in gas consumption through 2040 amounting to nearly half of Asia pacific non-OECD consumption growth.

Oil and natural gas together will meet 60 percent of the world energy needs. Demand for coal will reach at its pinnacle around 2025 and then will continue to decline due to shift toward non-polluting or lesser carbon emitting energies. Overall, oil, gas, and coal together will account for almost 80 percent of the energy needs of the world. Renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind and bio-fuels will register strong growth and likely to meet around 4 percent global energy demand by 2040.

Hydropower and wind energy will show the fastest growth among the renewable energy sources – likely to register 8 percent a year growth. . Nuclear energy is likely to grow at 2.2 percent a year worldwide and will have a checkered growth after Fukushima mishap in Japan (ExxonMobil, 2012). Below mentioned graph shows world energy consumption pattern between OECD and non-OECD countries. Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm In 2008, transportation sector consumed 27 percent of the total world energy demand and will grow at the rate of 1.

4 percent until 2040. Major consumption or increase in demand will be from non-OECD countries as more and more people are adopting personal mode of transportation. Lesser population and economic growth in the OECD nations through 2040 will restrict the energy growth in the transportation sector at lowly 0.3 percent against likely growth of 2.6 percent per year in the non-OECD countries. Over the next 30 years, hybrid vehicles will become the mainstream vehicles for transportation needs and it is expected that by 2040, hybrid and other fuel efficient vehicles will constitute 50 percent of all light duty vehicles plying on the road.

Commercial transportation energy needs through 2040 will also rise by 45 percent (ExxonMobil, 2012). Below mentioned chart shows likely consumption of energy in the transportation sector in OECD and non-OECD countries from 2008 through 2035. Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm Environmental Impact Burning of fossil fuels release huge amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that lead to the greenhouse effect in which, gases such as carbon-dioxide, methane etc. absorb the heat and then release it back to the earth atmosphere (International energy agency, 2012).

Due to higher consumption of fossil fuel (coal, oil, and gas) in next 30 years, the levels of global