Population and the Property in Australia - Essay Example

Assessment Task 2 QUESTION 1 [5 marks] For the following argument, identify the sample, population and the property being extended from the sample to the population. Then evaluate the argument, considering relevant issues such as the adequacy of the sample and the research methods used. Conclude your evaluation with a statement as to whether the overall conclusion drawn from the survey is justified. Young Australians are becoming increasingly disenchanted with Australia's role in the war in Iraq, a new study has found. The researchers interviewed 2,000 students at three universities in Sydney, from a range of disciplines. The students were presented with a set of propositions expressing different views of the war in Iraq, and asked to select the response which best reflected their own views. Over 70% agreed either with the proposition that "Australia should never have been involved in the US-led war in Iraq" or "Australia should no longer be involved in the US-led war in Iraq". This contrasts with surveys of young Australians conducted in early 2004, which showed a much higher level of support for Australian involvement in the war. A: Sample here is the student community whose views are being collected. Population is depicted as the overall population of Australia. Property is the personal views of Australians regarding the govt involvement in War in Iraq. Argument can be evaluated on the basis of certain factors. First of all, the sample case of students being extended to total population is not totally adequate because of the age factor. Students of university who are not experienced in international affairs and the government working are presenting their personal views which are themselves based upon what their peers think. This age factor cannot be extended on to the overall population as there are middle aged men and women and the older generations who are more mature and experienced. The research methods used are also not considering the viewpoint of people other than young students. Conclusion about the evaluation is deduced as not justified because the views of people more experienced and strong view point is not considered. QUESTION 2 [4 marks] In causal research, why is it important for test group and control group to be similar? What method of test group/ control group selection is most likely to result in the test group and control group being similar? Why? Explain, using an example, why it is not always appropriate to use that more reliable form of test group/control group selection. A: The purpose of keeping the test and control groups same is to keep the variable factors involved in the argument strictly relevant to the conclusion. Our approach is to keep the conditions of test and control group as same as possible. If both are the same (the only difference being the causal factor) then the causal research will lead to most accurate causal argument. The ACTIVE method of test group selection has most control over the condition of test and control group conditions. The reason is that there is greater control in the hands of researchers to select the test and control group hence resulting in the most appropriate selection (in which the test and control groups are most similar). QUESTION 3 [5 marks] In the following argument identify, where possible, the following features: the causal claim being tested; the sample, the population; the test group and the control group; whether these groups were actively or passively selected. Then evaluate the argument. Is the overall conclusion justified? Research conducted by the Drivers' Association shows what a lot of drivers already suspect: speed cameras actually make the roads more dangerous. The researchers identified 20 major roads in Sydney that have speed cameras. They compared the number of reported collisions in the years 2003-5 in the stretches of road covered by the speed cameras with the number of collisions in nearby stretches of the same roads that were not covered by speed cameras. They found that the number of reported accidents in speed camera zones outnumbered the number of accidents in the other zones by two to one. A: The causal claim is that the speed cameras influence the number of collisions over a period of time. The sample here is the 20 major roads being tested for the research. The population here is the all other roads for which the claim is being extended. Test group was the stretch which was covered by speed cameras. The control group was the uncovered stretch. The groups were actively selected. The overall conclusion that the speed cameras are responsible for the more number of collisions isnot justified because the conditions of the stretch were not considered. The case may have been that the stretch might have had some blind turns etc. QUESTION 4 [4 marks] Give your own example of an analogical argument in which the similarities between the subject and analogical argument are relevant, but in which they are outweighed by negatively relevant differences.  Explain your answer. Twin children have same face, same height and colour. Hence, if Jill follows a given list of hobbies then the twin bill other will also follow the same hobby. The positively relevant similarities are evident from theit physical make and the characteristics of being a twin. Meanwhile, as the human nature is, no two people living under same natural conditions think alike. The negatively relevant difference hence can be the thinking styles which influence our personal traits and behaviour to the outside conditions. QUESTION 5 [3 marks] Why is sample size important? Why, nevertheless, does being large not ensure that a sample is a good one? Give an example and explain your answer. In case of inductive generalisation, the sample size has got more importance in terms of providing more clarifications and similarities of the positively relevant factors. However, in case of presence of large sample size, it is not ensured that it will be good one. Because the sample being large also should be able to support the conclusion deduced. The relevancy of the sample can be judged by the inference of the best explanation. And also the more larger the sample size, lesser will be the impact of analogical argument because the large sample incorporates the probability of introducing more negatively relevant differences between the subject and analogue. QUESTION 6 [4 marks] What is stratified sampling? Give your own example of a statistical generalisation that might be drawn from a piece of research that used stratified sampling, and give examples of some of the things that could be taken into account in the stratification of the sample in that piece of research. A: Stratified sampling is the classification of properties of a sample case into individual groups which can be easily read and from which the conclusions can be generated by applying the same sample case to the population (because the factors that have been considered in the sampling are exponentially ascended to suit the population and hence a generalisation can be made through it). For example: A study has shown that 90% of all human beings are positively motivated by music. The above study shows the percentage of people influenced by music. However, we cannot say anything about the rest of the population because they may be motivated other factors like self-motivation, self help books, life situations etc. as in the case with music, there can be generalisation based upon the genre of music, and also whether the music is strictly devotional, or for that matter rap. Hence when this type of research is given regarding the differing tastes of people with the type of music they are exposed to have been listening, the statistical generalisation depends upon the altogether factor of music and subsequently the effect of individual music genre. QUESTION 7 [5 marks] Identify an analogical argument in the following passage. Identify the primary subject and analogue, the stated similarities between them and the conclusion drawn on the basis of that similarity. Evaluate the analogical argument. Is it descriptive or normative? Why? Although nuclear power, like coal-generated electricity, would be capable of meeting Australia's energy needs, many people are concerned about the dangers of nuclear energy. They worry, for example, about the possibility of accidents, and about what would happen if terrorists were able to get control of nuclear reactors. Similar concerns could be raised about the electricity we currently use, though: we know that electrical accidents can be very dangerous, and terrorists could cause massive problems if they gained control of the electricity grid. Yet no-one thinks of these potential dangers as a reason for abandoning coal-generated electricity. Nor, therefore, should they be so willing to reject nuclear power. A: The analogical argument in above paragraph is the “analogy is presented between nuclear power and coal generated electricity. And the people are being more sceptical about nuclear power than the coal generated electricity”. Primary subject is the coal generated electricity and the Analogue is the nuclear powered electricity. The similarities being cited in the paragraph as a basis for analogical argument are 1) the possibility of accidents leading to destruction and 2) the occupancy of the plants by terrorists. The conclusion drawn is that if we are not sceptical about the coal generated electricity from such a long time of its use, then why the nuclear power should be treated differently. Evaluation can be carried out on the basis of relevancy of the inferences from the similarities. For example: the similarity cited between coal-generated electricity and nuclear power based upon the extent of damage due to accidents in both king of plants lacks the appreciation of “quality” and “quantity” of destruction intensity of nuclear power (nuclear power is underestimated in order to compare both). The analogical argument is “normative” in nature, since it persuades us to think on the lines of what should be the case. Read More