Risks Associated with Surf Holidays Tourism Project - Research Paper Example

Topic:  project management part A and part B scenario of case study is given Part A Risks associated with surf holidays tourism project The surfing industry has become popular not only in many Western beaches but also in other parts of the world due to link on economic growth and progress, especially in particular areas potential for surfing activities. Though surfing contributes multi-billion dollar in the economy of a certain place, it is expected that surf tourism project carries many risks, not only for the facility provider, but also for the surfers and the local environment. Surfers look for swell height, fetch and wavelength; seabed profile and near shore seafloor shape and structure; tide and wind regimes and good weather (Buckley, 2002). As it is, there are many risks associated with surf tourism are many. The plan to incorporate weather to the increase or decrease of rate using website booking may require a highly technical system that incorporates accurate weather forecasting, projection and prediction at the earliest possible time. This will be linked to the rating changes in the website and any slight mistake or change of weather reflected on the site will cause unprecedented damages that will not only remain local but international due to the character of the activity. The risks in employing this system are as follows: Unavailable model or system that accurately forecasts weather. The current models for weather forecasting use computer programs that produce meteorological information for certain locations and altitude for future times (such as the one below) using set of equations to predict the future of the atmosphere. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (2007) suggested that data collected in spaced observations are assimilated to provide objective analysis methods used for forecasting and this is called primitive equations. It was noted that time step for global climate models require an order of tens of minutes while regional models require a few seconds to a few minutes (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2007). WRF Modelling System Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2007 The marine forecast or MAFOR is the closes that the project manager will consider on this instance as wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides and precipitation may be predicted (Great Lakes and Seaway Shipping, 2008). High risk of weather change – Despite the presence of various models, the atmosphere will remain chaotic and that minimal changes of its present state impacts change of the atmospheric future (Direct and Inverse Modelling in Environmental End-to-end Prediction, 2011). Even the perfect forecasting models indicate chaos so that prediction of weather remains elusive at much beyond few days. This means that the project will have to adopt the “seasonal forecasting” where typical rainy, stormy, windy, or calm days will be used by the system. Inter-annual variations (DIME, 2011) shall be used with a lead time of about 3 months, and it will be the most realistic and disclaimer for weather changes would have to be posted in the website. Top Ten Steps to Deliver the Project 1. Research and plan for the project as required by the operator (client). At this stage, it is important to gather information and data where the project is planned to be established in order to forecast the growth, needs and wants of the customers and other stakeholders such as the community for the immediate and long term future. This includes on-site inspection and surveys. Surveys may include: survey on natural features such as landform, slope, climate, geology, soils, hydrology, vegetation, wildlife, visual landscape in order to mitigate further environmental degradation. It also includes surveys of built features available in the area. The project developer might take advantage to preserve or use the existing facility as part of the new project. 2. Identify the risks associated with linking online booking rates at the resort to the weather. Risk Management Tasks: Source: NR, 2009 The importance of this system is paramount to the requirement of the tourism operator. Weather is very volatile and remains very unpredictable until now which has left many sectors including many governments helpless. 3. Scout for a possible system or weather forecasting model that will be linked or will appear in the website for users to rely on when booking. This will reduce the responsibility of the operator for weather changes. The weather forecasting system will also come with a disclaimer about weather changes during the exact date of the booking. 4. Inform all stakeholders from the operator, suppliers, marketing team, partners, the IT team which will develop the website, and the project staff about the risks of the adopted system, the options available, and present a recommendation on how to properly address them. 5. Application and implementation of the weather forecasting system in the web design. This entails a close collaboration of the IT, supplier and project management teams to ensure that the integrated system will work. Since rate will also be included in this stage, payment system needs to be encompassed as well for a smoother transaction on the end of the clients. This will also include a refund or discount system that will be provided for clients whose booking for a good weather will turn out into a wrong forecast. 6. Test and validate the system to determine loopholes, synchronisation, and other problems that will need to be addressed. 7. Address any and all issues that are experienced during the test and validation period. 8. Inform all stakeholders of their roles, specially a disaster or first-aid team for any possible occurrence for weather-change related accidents or events. 9. Ensure that the online booking system and its contents reflect the true condition as well as available precautionary measures for clients when they arrive at the surfing resort. 10. Implement the online booking system with a rate that is linked with the weather using the forecasting model / system chosen. Part B In gathering information about private businesses’ economic activities, the various stakeholders are mainly the government department that requires the information, the management team that will gather the information, and the 100 private enterprises that will be involved in the provision of information. Gathering of information is not as easy as it seems. Many private entities hold their operational data sacred and often resort to maintenance of double bookkeeping practices in order to protect their management and stakeholders. In managing the design, inception, scope agreement, delivery, review and completion of data, it is necessary to include an agent to collect hidden data which are at times relevant for the accuracy and applicability of purposes for the information gathered. False or wrong information usually leads to unmitigated risks and problems that occur during the planning and implementation of projects (Nokes, 2007). The process also involves careful planning (Kerzner, 2003). Actual implementation will include dissemination of information in the most time and cost-effective manner in consideration of the limited resources. Use of internet communication and other electronic means where data can be spread the fastest at least cost will be used although back-up processes such as use of facsimile, phone calls, and personal follow-ups may be necessary. The project design will involve the following processes: planning, identification of challenges and how to address them, gathering of information, validation of information, and finalization of data. In the planning stage, it is important that a design for information gathering be utilized. All stakeholders are also informed at this stage in order to prepare for the actual collection of information process. The business entities will be provided a formal letter requesting for needed data as well as consent and contact persons. This will provide a systematic approach for the team in order to avoid complications and challenges that may arise during the implementation. The next step will be to identify possible challenges that the team may encounter. It is important that each team member is aware of various methods in addressing challenges such as uncooperative information sources. Third is the gathering of data where field, intelligence and the online team members will collect all available information from various manners. Upon receiving permission from the 100 companies, the field staff may start working. Field staff will go directly to the various companies, gather available data from the company management and staff. The intelligence staff will be involved in external location of data such as the community, suppliers, customers, and other stakeholders. The third staff which will gather information online will collate all web-sourced materials about the 100 companies and start and labeling the data. Upon finishing the collection process, collating and validation will follow. After which, a final presentation will commence. GANTT Chart of Activities Activities 1st – 2nd Week 3rd-4th week 5th=6th week 7[8th week Planning and Information Dissemination Agent & Internet Research on the 100 companies Field Research and Data Gathering Collate All Data Review & Validation Finalization References: Bentley, T.A, Page, S.J. and Macky, K.A. (2011) Adventure tourism and adventure sports injury: The New Zealand experience. Available at https://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/671/1/injury%20risk%20in%20adveture%20tourism%20and%20adventure%20sports%20the%20nz%20experience%20as%20resubmitted%20to%20applied%20ergs%20for%20SPage.pdf [Accessed July, 2011). Booth,G.J. (1998) Drafting Successful Planning Schemes under Queensland’s Integrated Planning Act, 1997, International Business Conferences, Brisbane. Brown & Shepard (1969) Introduction to Town and Country Planning, 2nd ed., Angus & Robertson Ltd, Sydney. Buckley, R. (2002) Surf Tourism and Sustainable Development in Indo-Pacific Islands. Vol 10. No. 5. Direct and Inverse Modelling in Environmental End-to-end Prediction (DIME). (2011). How far into the future can the weather be predicted?. Accessed July 2011 from http://dime.lse.ac.uk/faq_leadtime.html Great Lakes and Seaway Shipping. (2008). MAFOR Weather Code. Accessed from http://www.boatnerd.com/facts-figures/mafor.htm Kerzner, H. (2003). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling (8th Ed. ed.). Wiley. Nokes, S. (2007). The Definitive Guide to Project Management. 2nd Ed. London (Financial Times / Prentice Hall). Network Rail (NR). (2009). Guide to Investment Projects. Rajdeep Grewal & Patriya Tansuhaj (2001). Building Organizational Capabilities for Managing Economic Crisis: The Role of Market Orientation and Strategic Flexibility. Available at http://www.atypon-link.com/AMA/doi/abs/10.1509/jmkg.65.2.67.18259 [Accessed July, 2011]. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (2007). The WRF Variational Data Assimilation System (WRF-Var). Accessed July 2011 from http://web.archive.org/web/20070814044336/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/WG4/wrfvar/wrfvar-tutorial.htm Read More