Eco-tourism in China and France - Research Paper Example

? Tourism Demand Modeling and Management: Eco-tourism in China and France Table of Contents Introduction 3 Characteristics and Modeling of Tourism Demand 4 Growth of the Tourist Industry 6 Tourism Growth in China 6 Growth of Tourism in France 8 Eco-tourism 8 Characteristics of Eco-tourism 8 Effects and Considerations of Eco-tourism 9 Energizers of Demand for Eco-tourism 11 Management of Eco-tourism Demand 12 Managing Demand for Eco-tourism in China 12 Managing Demand for Eco-tourism in France 13 General Management Strategies 14 Conclusions 16 References 19 Tourism Demand Modeling and Management: Eco-tourism in China and France Introduction Tourism is a rapidly growing industry in most countries in the world, including both developing and developed countries (Eijgelaar, Peeters, & Piket, 2008; Euromonitor International, 2011). Tourism as a business has grown approximately ten percent per year since the end of World War Two. (Matias, Nijkamp, & Sarmento, 2009) Much of that business is in the form of domestic tourism, but international pleasure travel does capture a significant portion of that market (Lohmann, 2004). The needs of the international tourist differ from the needs of the domestic tourist. Monitoring and forecasting the international tourism demand independently of the domestic tourism demand is vital in proper demand management. The analysis of tourism demand is the measurement of this growth; forecasting this demand is vital in managing it and profiting from it. However, an analysis of the tourism industry across the entire world is too large and is outside the scope of this research; instead, the focus is on one example of a developing nation though with a thriving tourist industry, China, and one example of a developed nation also with a very well-established tourist industry, France. A type of tourism common to both of these nations is eco-tourism, and so eco-tourism will be used as the model to compare management strategies between the two nations. Characteristics and Modeling of Tourism Demand Tourism demand can be measured in a variety of ways. The most commonly used benchmark for tourism demand is the number of tourists arriving in the country or to the location Chan, Lim, & McAleer, 2005). Another method, which is generally used for economic models, is the income receipt from those tourists. A combination of these measurements is considered best to get a true picture of the demand for tourism infrastructure: if there is a situation where a large number of tourists are arriving, but their expenditure while traveling is low, it would be more sensible to focus on budget vacations than on five-star facilities, for example. The two issues at hand, the number of arrivals and the money being spent, are separate; good modeling will involve consideration of them both as individual problems and as a a combination. A wide variety of models exist for forecasting and analyzing the demand of tourism and new techniques are constantly being introduced. No single modeling technique has been found to be the most accurate overall; the best choice of modeling technique seems to depend significantly on the situation (Song & Li, 2008). For example, travel motivation theory suggest that the reasoning behind the trip is the most important in predicting the demand for tourism to a specific location (Goh, Law, & Mok, 2008). Dynamic destination image indexes (DDII) are collections of news stories about a destination that can affect a consumer's choice of vacation destination, by adding a line of reasoning about recent events to the consumer's decision-making process (Stepchenkova & Eales, 2011). Using the DDII can be more helpful to managing demand in a nation that is frequently shown on the international news, but less so in a case where fewer people are aware of current events at that location. Scenario planning is used to predict events, both positive and adverse, that could effect tourism demand. Ideally, scenario planning will also forecast the magnitude of this effect. Tourism demand management then involves planning how to deal with this change (Glover, 2007). These changes are known as demand elasticities. Including them in forecast modeling of tourism demand tells tourism management what to expect over time in cases where steady growth is not necessarily expected (Song, Kim, & S. Yang, 2010). Neural network forecasting involves the use of an artificially intelligent computer network to analyze and predict tourism demand based on information gathered from the relevant databases and statistics. These are considered by some to be the most universally accurate models for computer forecasting of tourism demand. Neural network modeling includes support vector regression, and a variation on support vector regression known as genetic algorithm support vector regression, back-propagation neural networking, and autoregressive integrated moving average modeling (K.-Y. Chen & C.-H. Wang, 2007). Overall, however, the best results in predicting tourism demand come from combination forecasting, where the results of multiple modeling techniques are analyzed together. For example, research has shown that the combination of econometric and time-series modeling is more accurate than either method alone (Shen, Li, & Song, 2011). The use of more diverse information can further increase the accuracy of the forecasts. This can mean combining both linear and non-linear methods of analysis, or the combined analysis of long-term and short-term forecasting methods (Andrawis, Atiya, & El-Shishiny, 2010; Chen, 2011). Growth of the Tourist Industry Tourism Growth in China Developing nations face a special challenge when it comes to managing tourism demand. A minimum threshold of economic development is necessary to begin gaining income from tourism. Developing countries with relatively low GDPs see relatively low tourism demand (Eugenio-Martin, Martin-Morales, & Sinclair, 2008). Without this baseline of economic development, there is no funding for the construction of tourism infrastructure. But in this case, China is growing as an exporter of tourists, which indicates that they are becoming financially stable, relative to their status as a developing nation (Moutinho, Huarng, Yu, & C.-Y. Chen, 2008). Incoming international tourists visit China for a variety of reasons. One study found that the single most important factor, however, was consumer loyalty to a specific vacation destination and the traveler's desire to return to that destination. Other factors included pricing of the trip, domestic economic conditions for the home country of the tourist, relative pricing of alternative destinations, and special events such as festivals (C.-Y. Wang & F.-C. Huang, 2009). Cost of airfare was rated especially high for pricing concerns. Somewhat surprisingly, the population density of the consumer's home country seem to correlate strongly with a desire to visit China, though whether there is a causal relationship is still unknown (C.-H. Yang, Lin, & Han, 2010). International tourists are also shown to be drawn by world-renowned cultural and historical sites in a country like China which is known to have a long and rich cultural history (C.-H. Yang et al., 2010). The demand for inbound international tourism in China is predicted to increase (C.-Y. Wang & F.-C. Huang, 2009). In fact, China is predicted by some to be the world's most popular tourist destination by 2020 (Jamal & Robinson, 2009). Forecasts show that Korea is likely to be the biggest source of tourists to China in coming years (C.-Y. Wang & F.-C. Huang, 2009). Demand from the US for Chinese tourism is unaffected by changes in the Chinese economy or the exchange rate, but is greatly affected by the number of Americans and economic changes in the US (Z.-Y. Liu & J.-S. Huang, 2009). Since the number of Americans is consistently rising, and the economic conditions are gradually but definitively improving, tourist demand for travel to China can also be predicted to increase. China is a large and diverse country, so it is unsurprising that different regions of the nation see different levels and types of tourism. This effect is exacerbated by the differing development and economic levels of the regions. These regions show contrast in their cultural openness as well as their tourism resources, facilities, and organization. Growth in tourism demand over the whole nation, therefore, is only a generalized average of the situation in China, though if one region is doing especially well in attracting tourists, the neighboring regions will benefit as well (J. Zhang, 2009). Growth of Tourism in France Tourism in France is a long-term industry. Some historians claim that tourism in France started as early as the beginning of the 18th century (Guerin, 2004). Tourism in that nation is a growth industry, and is well-distributed throughout the country (Guisan & Aguayo, 2001). In fact, growth in the tourism industry has been stronger than expected, countering the general economic decline. (Euromonitor International, 2011). While incoming international tourism represents only 2% of France's GDP, it represents about 7% of France's exportation of goods, and so is a significant portion of their economy (Jamal & Robinson, 2009). Demand for tourism in France has shown a steady and stable increase over time. While there have been many short-term fluctuations in the tourism market, it is overall a good choice for investment for further development (Li, Wong, Song, & Witt, 2006). This is especially true given that France is currently the top destination for international travelers. Almost 60 million tourists arrive each year in France from various countries worldwide (Eijgelaar, Peeters, & Piket, 2008). Eco-tourism Characteristics of Eco-tourism Eco-tourism is a very wide term and lacks a universally accepted description. However, in general it can be characterized as travel for pleasure that involves visiting natural areas while attempting to have minimal impact on those areas. It may involve visiting “indigenous”, “exotic” peoples of the area (West & Carrier, 2004). Eco-tourists usually travel in relatively small groups as compared to conventional tourism. They visit primarily rural areas, and their destinations are usually marketed specially for eco-tourism and not the wide range of activities as seen in other types of tourism. Rather than lowering prices to attract a large and diverse population of visitors, eco-tourism destinations will have higher prices which attract only those specifically interested in the ecological topics of the trip (Turtureanu, Tureac, Andronic, Ivan, & Filip, 2011). Management of eco-tourism infrastructure is usually local and development is more slow-paced. Most eco-tourism destinations prize a close relationship between local residents and tourists. Eco-tourists will generally stay in tourist infrastructure that is locally-owned and operated (West & Carrier, 2004). Employees and owners of eco-tourism infrastructure will generally receive training that focuses on the local flora, fauna, and conservation needs, instead of on entertainment of visitors. (Turtureanu et al., 2011). Despite this slow pace of development, eco-tourism is possibly the fastest growing tourism sector, depending on the definition used (West & Carrier, 2004). Effects and Considerations of Eco-tourism Eco-tourism is touted as being a way to show off the natural beauty of a region while generating an income source for conserving the region. This income source is especially beneficial in the case of repeat visitors to a destination (Lindsey, Alexander, Mills, Romanach, & Woodroffe, 2007). The income from the eco-tourism infrastructure can also travel through the community, providing an economic boost to an otherwise poor, rural area (Jingyan Liu, Qu, D. Huang, Sun, & Zhao, 2011). The benefit to that community may not only be economic, as eco-tourism can increase the self-esteem of the local community. Becoming known for the natural beauty of their home can make a community feel valued and important on the world stage, and further encourage conservation of that natural resource (Stronza & Gordillo, 2008). Using eco-tourism to support conservation does seem counter-intuitive: encourage visitors to disrupt a natural area in order to save it. But eco-tourism has been shown to be a driving factor in gathering support for ecological restoration of areas already damaged, and encourage conservation of undamaged areas (Blangy & Mehta, 2006). In addition, properly managed eco-tourism has not been shown to cause long-term damage to the wildlife of protected areas, though short-term disruption of such sensitive locations as nesting sites does occur (Guillemain, Blanc, Lucas, & Lepley, 2008). However, the income distribution from the eco-tourists can also cause a wider disinterest in conservation. If the more rural communities further away from transportation hubs and the immediate tourist destinations are not deliberately included in the tourism infrastructure, those communities may miss out on the income gain from the tourists. This unequal distribution of wealth can lead to resentment toward the tourists and the eco-tourism destinations, (He et al., 2008). Resentment can also be a result of the power exerted by Western eco-tourists. Tourists expect to see eco-tourism infrastructure developed a certain way, and to see conservation practices of a specific type, usually paralleling what is being done in their home countries. This forces the local residents of that area to behave in ways that are deemed appropriate by the foreign visitors, instead of making their own decisions (West & Carrier, 2004). Energizers of Demand for Eco-tourism One problem with managing the demand for eco-tourism is that eco-tourists usually choose that form of travel because they are interested in protecting the natural resources of the world. However, this same desire to “save the world” could encourage them to fly and drive less and not travel as much. Obviously, if the target market for eco-tourism is traveling less, this reduces demand for eco-tourism. Energizing demand for eco-tourism is therefore a balancing act between encouraging possible customers to consider the ecological impact of their travels while not reducing their desire to take a vacation at all (Scott, 2008). Public opinions of a particular natural phenomena greatly affect demand for specific types of eco-tourism. For example, tourism to France jumped in the mid-19th century. This was the same time when public interest in mountains and mountaineering became more common (Guerin, 2004). The draw was that visiting the mountains was the thing to do, and so the visitors could brag about their journey to their friends and neighbors upon returning home. Today's tourists have similar motivation in visiting the types of destinations that are popular amongst their friends. Demand for eco-tourism also changes with popular opinion of environmentalism. eco-tourism destinations are selected by those tourists who wish to seem environmentally conscious and socially aware (West & Carrier, 2004). As with a desire to visit the same types of destinations as others in society, the desire to seem environmentally conscious and aware changes with the popular opinion of those traits. Currently, public opinion is more positively inclined to the idea of environmental conservation and so the demand for eco-tourism is increasing. One major factor in demand for eco-tourism involves the presence of specific and desirable flora and fauna. This can vary depending on the location; for example, destinations in North America will often mention the presence of black and grizzly bears, while African eco-tourism destinations are in higher demand if they have famous mega-fauna such as elephants and rhinos. Coastal areas are in higher demand for eco-tourism if they have attractive underwater destinations, such as a coral reef (Hill & Gale, 2009). Management of Eco-tourism Demand Managing Demand for Eco-tourism in China As a developing nation, China has limited resources that must be allocated to many economic sectors and so development of eco-tourism infrastructure first requires an analysis of the need. The demand for different regions and eco-tourism destinations should be investigated, to determine what areas truly require more infrastructure. In addition, an assessment must be taken to calculate what portion of available resources can be devoted to the development of eco-tourism without negatively affecting growth of other sectors (Dong, 2010). China is rapidly growing into an industrial power, with all of the potential pollution and build-up that entails. As a result, the Chinese government needs to put into place policies that protect natural resources that are attractive to eco-tourists. This needs to be balanced with funding for development that attracts the highest number of tourists that the destinations can safely accommodate without threatening the natural resources. In this manner, growth of eco-tourism is encouraged simultaneously with growth of conservation practices (Dong, 2010). Managing Demand for Eco-tourism in France Much of France's tourism industry is under centralized management. This includes hotels and other conventional tourist infrastructure, but also affects camping sites and hostels which are more commonly frequented by eco-tourism. A de-centralized model, however, has been suggested by some analysis as a better method for managing eco-tourist infrastructure. De-centralization will allow for more flexibility, with an easier and faster response to changing local conditions and markets (Guerin, 2004). As tourism and eco-tourism are such a large part of the economy of France, there are a large number of citizens employed in the industry. Better treatment of these seasonal employees would reduce the stigma of these positions and attract a higher quality worker to these job openings. Higher quality workers would be more efficient and professional in performing their duties, which in turn could attract more tourists and bigger spenders to the destination, increasing its revenue (Guerin, 2004). France has already set a precedent of protecting its natural resources. Approximately fifteen percent of the territory within France's borders is under some form of environmental protection policy. In order to manage and energize demand for eco-tourism in that country, these policies should be continued. These policies include a limitation on development in coastal areas, so that while there are hotels and campgrounds near the shoreline, no buildings or facilities are located directly on the beach. This has the effect of increasing the natural beauty of those beaches and attracting eco-tourists who are drawn to such locations. In addition, France places a tax on building being done in ecologically sensitive areas. This limits the destruction and disruption of those areas without cutting them off to the development of infrastructure entirely, and provides a source of revenue for the French government that encourages support of eco-tourism development (Guerin, 2004). France is also known for their “eco-museums”. These facilities are focused on providing an education in the flora, fauna, and lifestyle in a specific region of rural France. While these museums are not always a perfect representation of the surrounding areas, their existence is a draw to eco-tourists. Policies should be put into place that encourage further development of eco-museums, and funding should be provided to increase the quality of the information (Davis, 2011). General Management Strategies Eco-tourism is a dynamic business sector and requires careful management whether in a developing or developed nation. Conditions are constantly changing and require a flexible strategy. For example, global climate change threatens many of the world's best eco-tourism destinations. Future businesses will have to adapt to changing weather conditions, rather than relying on previous seasonal conditions. (Scott, 2008). The Internet is becoming a powerful force in tourism (Sahut & Hikkerova, 2009). This power could be used to control the demand for eco-tourism in both developed France and developing China. For example, Internet reservation systems allow potential customers to view booking dates, compare prices, and place reservations, all without the need for a human employee to be involved. This reduces the costs and time expenditure involved in placing that reservation on the part of the destination. Internet advertising of eco-tourism destinations is inexpensive and can be extremely cost-effective if done correctly. Employees should be trained to provide both information and services to customers upon request, in order to provide the best experience possible. Documentation of available activities should be available as printed materials in multiple languages for guest access. Since eco-tourism destinations are often rural and without obvious entertainment venues that are common in conventional tourism, employee knowledge and printed materials about the area are vital in keeping the tourists happy and comfortable. Analyses should be done of the major eco-tourism attractions to ensure the facilities are up to the standard expected by visitors, especially in areas such as signage, lighting, and other infrastructure that the locals may neglect (Naidoo et al., 2011). Finally, access to sites should be limited somewhat. Unlimited visitors can have the same negative effects on an eco-tourism site as unlimited development. Too many people at a single destination can result in over-crowding of prime viewing sites. Visitors may feel that their “natural” vacation is being interrupted by this over-crowding, thus reducing demand for that site (Naidoo et al., 2011). Conclusions The rapid growth of tourism means that it is an industry well worth further study. Tourism demand modeling is the mathematical analysis of this growth. In order to understand the world-wide market, it is necessarily to do this modeling on both developing nations, using China as an example, and on developed nations, using France as an example. The analysis of tourism demand and growth is vital in proper demand management. Tourism demand is generally measured in terms of the number of tourists arriving in a country; forecasting this demand is done using a variety of models. No one model is more accurate than any other, though a combination of diverse methods has been shown to produce the best forecasts. The modeling methods include dynamic destination image indexes and scenario planning, to predict and manage the effects of news stories and events on tourism demand, as well as artificially intelligent computer programs known as neural networks that can analyze large amounts of information from databases much faster than conventional programs. China, while a developing nation, is shown to be a powerful force in international tourism, predicted to be the most popular destination for travelers by 2020. China has reached a baseline of economic development that allows it to house tourists in relatively affluent conditions, and has many attractive features for international arriving tourists. For example, the cost of a trip to China versus alternative similar destinations is lower, and the country is home to many world-renowned cultural and historical sites. However, one point of difficulty in forecasting demand in China is the size and diversity of the nation. These factors mean that predictions cannot always be universally applied to the whole nation universally, though one successful region will usually have a positive effect on its neighbors. Conversely, France is a well-developed nation with a long history of tourism. Tourism income represents 2% of the countries total GDP and is responsible for 7% of its exported goods. Growth of tourism demand has been steady and stable. Eco-tourism is a large and growing portion of the tourist industry. It is characterized by small groups of environmentally-friendly tourists who travel with the intent of viewing natural areas while having a minimal impact on them. Eco-tourism is known as a method for increasing awareness of the need for environmental conservation as well as providing a source of income for that conservation. Rural residents of those environmental areas also gain an economic benefit, though the fairness of the distribution of that income must be carefully managed. The long-term effects of eco-tourism on the populations of wildlife in natural areas are generally considered to be minimal; however, the long-term effects of the pressures placed on the human populations of those areas are not so well-known. Eco-tourism demand is variable and highly dependent on public opinion. For example, tourists are drawn to currently favored attractions of their friends and neighbors, and by the wildlife that they expect to see in a given area. In addition, eco-tourism is dependent on the public perception of conservation itself. Management of eco-tourism demand in China primarily depends on careful analysis of available resources, needs, and demands of the regions and destinations within that nation. France, as it has a longer history of tourism and eco-tourism, must continue many of the policies that made it such a popular destination to this point. In many cases, management strategies for demand of eco-tourism will work equally well in both developed France and developing China. For example, flexibility in the face of changing environmental conditions, use of the powerful tools on the Internet for advertising and customer service, limitations on the number of visitors at any one time, and proper training of employees will benefit both nations. References Andrawis, R. 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