Human Factors Considerations in the Vision for the Development of Nextgen - Research Paper Example

Human Factors-The FAAs Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Introduction Aviation plays an important role in United s’ economic and transportation infrastructure. Aviation and Aerospace account for 5.4 percent of the gross domestic product, and industries related to these sectors account for 11 million jobs. Aviation clearly being a driving force in the nation’s economic growth, the air traffic system not being able to meet future demands or not being able to accommodate changing business models is unimaginable. The cost of delays, cancellations and lost business opportunities would be enormous. The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is a dynamic, flexible and scalable solution for managing the air transportation system (“Next Generation Air Transportation System In Brief”). NextGen It has been estimated that by 2015, annual passenger traffic would reach one billion. Other models estimate that by 2025, the number of passengers would double or even triple from the current 750 million. The present system is incapable of handling the expansion, and this has been evident from the number of recurring delays and difficulties experienced during bad weather. As the current system is unable to grow or adapt, a change in approach is desirable as a preparation for the twenty-first century. The magnitude of the challenge was recognized and addressed in the Vision 100 Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act, and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JDPO) was established, comprising of members from the Departments of Transportation, Defence, Commerce and Homeland Security, and Federal Aviation Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. NextGen has been envisaged as a system, leveraging on existing technologies, comprising of satellite navigation and control, digital non-voice communication, and advanced networking. NextGen Concept of Operations (ConOps) is a description of capability requirements for the system (“Next Generation Air Transportation System In Brief”). NextGen Technology Research and development of technology, policy and procedures, and systems are actions that would have to be coordinated for achieving system capabilities. The characteristics for NextGen include: an emphasis on user focus, with provision of greater flexibility and information for users and reduction of government intervention and control of resources; distributed decision making, enabling decision making at local levels based on an environment with rich information exchange and tools for creating shared situational awareness; leverage on human and automation capabilities by using automation to acquire, compile, monitor, evaluate and exchange information, and allowing humans choose alternatives and make decisions; being scalable on daily and yearly time-scales to satisfy changing traffic load and demand; being robust and resilient with inbuilt contingency measures, such as “fail safe” automation modes not relying fully on human cognition as backup; integration of safety management to manage system, organizational and operational risk proactively; provision of environmental management framework to include technology, policies and procedures to minimize environmental issues, such as community noise, air quality, water quality, energy utilization, and climate change. The capabilities for NextGen include: network enabled information access for ensuring information availability, security, and usability in real time for all stakeholders; performance-based operations and services, where procedures and regulations would be tied to vehicle and crew performance and match levels of service within the airspace, thus providing a framework for encouraging innovation and provide a predictable environment for users; weather assimilated decision making that utilizes digital information based on automated platforms with probabilistic weather information and tools for decision support; layered and adaptive security creating an integrated suite having security measures that are based on risk; position, navigation and timing services allowing definition of objective based flight path for operators; aircraft trajectory based operations allowing for planning and allocation of resources, such as use of airspace, runways, etc. and separation of aircraft tactically; equivalent visual operations allowing aircraft operations irrespective of visibility conditions; super-density arrival/departure operations allowing for safe reduction in separation of surface and terminal operations for optimal performance of the busiest airports (NASA, 2007). The enterprise architecture has laid down structures to be used by Federal agencies, and addresses the future state of NextGen as a documentation method providing a modelling framework. The enterprise architecture enables the management of NextGen planning and development. In particular, it provides support for various levels of change management; identifies integrated decisions enabling synchronized investments for delivery of NextGen; and enabling tracing of dependencies between policies, capabilities, systems and technologies. The integrated work plan is the framework for achieving NextGen, and addresses who will research capabilities when, and how the capabilities will be developed and implemented (Waggoner, 2007). Joint Planning and Development Office has represented the development in three time frames called “epochs;” near-, mid-, and long-term. Epoch 1 includes development of core technologies, capabilities and systems engineering. The time frame for development is 2006-2011 and implementation is 2010-2015. This stage includes research and development to address mid-term and long-term challenges; development and implementation of known and new procedures, infrastructure, and technologies; development of systems integration plan for mid-term transition; and completion of infrastructure and systems engineering for mid-term. Epoch 2 includes mid-term transition to NextGen. The time frame for this stage is development in 2012 – 2017 and implementation in 2014 – 2019. This stage includes equipment of aircraft for mid-term and being upgradeable to NextGen target; delivery of services and capabilities across domains; completion of physical infrastructure, such as airports, runways, security and terminals; and development of operation and management models to support transition and long-term sustainability. Epoch 3 includes full integration and operation of NextGen solutions. The time frame for this stage is development in 2018 – 2021 and implementation in 2020 – 2025. This stage includes full integration and operation of NextGen solutions across air transportation system; and operation and management of services to achieve complete transformational outcomes across the air transportation system. Research conducted by NASA in fundamental aeronautics, aviation safety, and airspace systems would contribute to NextGen in the development of several capabilities. Projects, such as NGATS ATM-Airspace and NGATS ATM-Airportal that have been undertaken by NASA to develop en route, transitional, terminal and surface capabilities would help address NextGen’s air traffic management research needs. NASA’s projects in subsonic fixed wing, subsonic rotary wing, and supersonics would help address NextGen’s capabilities, such as noise reduction technologies, emissions reduction technologies, utilization of alternative fuels, development of predictive capabilities in noise and emissions, and development of technologies such as high-performance aircraft. The integrated vehicle health management is a NASA project for advancing the state of flight-critical health management technologies and systems that are highly integrated, and allowing for continuous onboard situational awareness. The integrated intelligent flight deck project by NASA conducts research on crew workload and situational awareness technologies that could be deployed in NextGen’s operational environment capability requirement. The integrated resilient aircraft control project by NASA conducts research on aircraft flight control for safe flight during adverse conditions leading to loss of control that could be deployed in NextGen’s capability requirements. NASA’s aircraft aging and durability project conducts research to advance the state of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the detection and management of hazards related to aging. This research could help NextGen address reduce susceptibility of pre-mature deterioration to aircrafts. NASA’s airspace systems program research could benefit NextGen in enhancing technological capabilities, including technology based operation; traffic flow management; dynamic airspace configuration; performance based services; super density operations; airportal operations; and system analysis tools. Air traffic management systems based on NextGen’s vision would utilize trajectory based operations and optimize human and system automation capabilities to subsume pilot and controller functions. This requires accommodation of airspace-based and trajectory-based operations that rely on 4D accuracy and transmission of trajectory adjustments to the flight deck. Also, the system has the ability to dynamically predict uncertainty in areas including, prediction of wind, models of aircraft performance, convective weather, and assumptions for stochastic automation for mitigating impact. Higher levels of automation requires trajectory based technologies and human machine operating abilities to support a double or triple increase in capacity during nominal or failure recovery modes. Considerations must be made for safety, airspace user preferences, adequate cost/benefit ratios, and assurance of failure detection and recovery to enable human users to resolve issues. Trajectory prediction, synthesis, and uncertainty research to develop accurate trajectory predictions that could operate with aircraft flight management systems. Separation assurance is research to develop technology that is failure tolerant for sequential processing including analysis of cognitive workload, situational awareness, performance, man/machine interface, allocation of man/automation, and responsibilities and roles of controller or pilot during nominal and off-nominal operations. Traffic flow management should be able to handle upto three times the current traffic, be structured lesser, and able to handle airline operations, air taxi operations, general aviation and unmanned vehicles. Concepts would have to be developed to manage departure times, route modification, adaptive speed control during uncertainties, such as wind prediction, convective weather, aircraft performance, and crew or airline preferences and procedures. Air traffic management involves the ability to configure airspace dynamically. This involves mitigation of mismatch between air traffic demand and capacity, and making airspace available as much as possible. Air traffic management will include services based on performance for delivering instructions to aircraft specifically for unique equipage and performance capabilities for safe and efficient performance of instructions. Research and simulation is required to improve the state of emerging airborne technologies to deliver advisories suitable for equipage and performance capabilities. Super density operations capability is desirable for provision of increased operations. This could be achieved by the reduction of separation minima, relaxation of runway occupancy requirements, and addition of runways, taxiways and gates. A reduction in the level of uncertainty in the air traffic system is required for airports to operate more efficiently near their maximum capacity by the shortening or elimination of queues in the system. Safe and efficient surface operations could be achieved by the development of automated, safe and efficient operations during all weather conditions by fast and real-time simulations. Research conducted by NASA could help NextGen by developing simultaneous sequencing, spacing, merging, and de-confliction in airspace. Also, coordinated arrival/departure operations management would help develop tools for meeting capacity goals for the airportal system. Such technologies help reduction of runway occupancy time, reduce lateral or longitudinal approach and departure spacing, and help mitigation of weather impacts and interference of parallel runways. Challenges that need to be overcome include dramatic increase of airportal throughput at peak congestion (NASA, 2007). Human Factors Considerations Increased air traffic density, greater diversity of users, and introduction of systems, technologies and procedures would pose greater challenges for aviation safety. This will require the introduction of new concepts in safety, systems, technologies and procedures to be implemented and monitored for achieving desired levels of safety in a complex and demanding environment caused by increased throughput and diverse users. The aviation safety program is aimed at developing methods and tools for designers of aircraft for incorporating safety technologies and capabilities into vehicles. Aircraft aging and durability project is one such project that conducts research for the development of advanced diagnostic and prognostic capabilities that enable detection and reduction of aging-related hazards, resulting in decrease of susceptibility of aircraft and onboard systems to premature deterioration and improvement of safety. This includes new materials and fabrication techniques and proactive identification hazards associated with aging related degradation before becoming critical and address them by developing processes and technologies to mitigate them. The integrated resilient aircraft control project conducts research on aircraft flight control automation for prevention of flight loss-of-control. This includes methodologies to enable aircrafts detect, mitigate, and recover from off-nominal condition leading to loss-of-control, including the aircraft control system to automatically adapt or reconfigure itself when a component fails or gets damaged. Research in data mining and information analysis would help in the development of tools and technologies for the integration and automated analysis of large amount of data for detection of systemic anomalies or degradations before the occurrence of an unsafe condition. Onboard systems capable of self-diagnostics and self-correcting anomalies would enhance safety and reliability, which in other circumstances would go unnoticed until the occurrence of a failure. The integrated intelligent flight deck project conducts research to advance the state of technologies related to flight deck allowing for optimization of operational environment and ensuring crew workload and situational awareness. This includes investigation of methods for automatic monitoring, measurement, and assessment of the state of crew awareness and modelling of human performance for optimization of the human interface. Such technologies are aimed at management of hazards, elimination of recurring accidents, and mitigation of consequences from accidents and incidents. Safety of airborne and ground-based systems would be enhanced by research in systems that reduce risk, continued airworthiness, system health management, adaptive control for recovery from upset conditions, flight deck systems that are adaptive and accommodate changes in automation that are unintended, and accident mitigation. Standards, regulations and procedures including monitoring, sharing and analysis of safety related information for proactive action would be deployed for ensuring safety. Research to advance the state of discovering vulnerabilities, verification and validation of complex systems, ability to indentify factors contributing to the safety risk of systems, development of prognostic methods to assess risks, increasing understanding of fault propagation, risk assessment capability improvement, increase of pre-implementation assurance of safety, increase of data accessibility and analysis for the management of safety risk, increase of confidence in analytical results, and improvement of risk management cycle time would contribute to improved monitoring and analysis of safety (NASA, 2007). According to behavioural analysts, human air traffic controllers are unable to observe and vector more aircraft than they are currently handling in a particular sector. Also, cost wise it is not feasible to keep on adding more controllers, thereby a radical departure from the current manual air traffic control system has been envisioned. Considerations in relation to human machine interaction specific to NextGen, with respect to operational functions and system organization and management include: confusion over human or computer authority at different stages of flight; misunderstandings over network information to be pushed or pulled and user restrictions; robustness, reliability and operator trust in system based decision support tools; control instabilities caused by closed-loop time delays; operator error in modelling of automation and situational awareness of automation capabilities; lack of safety culture; and design errors in engineering systems. Confusion over human or computer authority include misunderstandings in negotiations over trajectories enroute or airport surfaces, which could be caused by lack of attention by flight crew or air traffic controllers, bad weather, medical/security emergencies, etc. Misunderstandings regarding network information to be pushed or pulled include issues caused by delays and confusion in the use of data-link rather than voice communication that is more intuitive. A high level of interconnectedness of aircraft and subsystems, equipment failures and misapplied procedures could cause perturbations which might cascade throughout the system. Poor design assuming control of aircraft by the air traffic management system and not accounting for unexpected time delays could make it difficult for humans to receive and comprehend complex information for making proper decisions. Air traffic controllers place little emphasis on understanding and the use of automation, which would require a radical change in approach and understanding of human capabilities and limitations. Current air traffic management systems view pilot or controller errors as an opportunity for reprimanding and punishment, thereby resulting in underreporting of runway incursions and aircraft separation violations. Design errors could be caused by the assumption of linear scalability of engineering systems during transition from current to new technology and more aircraft flying with closer separations (Sheridan, 2006). Review of accidents and system failures in human-automation interactions revealed that reasons for failures were a combination of system design, management, operator training, and inadequate procedures. The author has recommended the use of risk analysis tools, such as fault trees, event trees and other systematic means including SHARP and ATHEANA. One way of ensuring safety is to make systems resilient, by the inclusion of detailed task analysis, extensive human-in-the-loop simulation, and/or fast-time computer simulation. Abstract task analysis, including cognitive task analysis should be followed by function allocation and risk analysis. This should be followed by Human-in-the-Loop simulation, which is a definite requirement in large system development projects involving humans and technology interaction, such as NextGen. Fast-time computer simulation is another option, and often cheaper alternative. However, relatively few areas such as visual and auditory signal detection, continuous control, statistical decision making, and information processing are amenable to dynamic quantitative models of human performance. Information value is an under-appreciated factor in human machine safety. Information value is the difference between and event outcome and availability of sufficient information for adequate control action, and outcome on the lack of such information. Simulations should be conducted early in the development process for early warning of possible problems, allowing for refined design and iteration of simulations during further development (Sheridan, 2006). Conclusion NextGen is an approach with a vision to meet future requirements and challenges in Aviation by the development and leveraging of current and new technologies, and installing systems to achieve certain capabilities. Human factors considerations are primary in the vision for the development of NextGen. References Joint Planning and Development Office. (2006). Next Generation Air Transportation System In Brief. Retrieved May 16, 2009, from NextGen Joint Planning and Development Office Web site: http://www.jpdo.gov/library/In_Brief_2006.pdf NASA. (2007). NASA & THE NEXT GENERATION AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM (NEXTGEN). Retrieved May 16, 2009, from NASA Web site: http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/docs/nextgen_whitepaper_06_26_07.pdf NextGen Institute. (2009). NextGen Institute Document Library. Retrieved May 16, 2009, from NextGen Institute Web site: http://www.ncat.com/ngats/ngats_doclibrary.html Sheridan, Thomas. (2006). Next Generation Air Transportation Systems: Human-Automation Interaction and Organizational Risks. Retrieved May 17, 2009, from Resilience Engineering Web site: http://www.resilience-engineering.org/REPapers/Sheridan_R.pdf Waggoner, Edgar. (July 27, 2007). Enterprise Architecture and Engineering Division Products and Status. Retrieved May 17, 2009, from Joint Planning and Development Office Web site: http://www.jpdo.gov/library/20070726AllHands/20070727_JPDOAllHandsMeeting_NextGenPlan_Waggoner_FINAL.pdf Read More