Public Attitudes to the Impending 56th USA Presidential Election - Statistics Project Example

Statistical Questions Based On Published Findings from a Poll NYC Times Conducted To Investigate Public Attitudes to the Impending 56th United sof America Presidential Election Table of Contents Question 1 3 Critical Assessment of the Data Collection Procedure 3 Question 2 5 Critical Assessment of the Published Newspaper Article 5 Question 3 7 (a)Illustration of the Data Collected in Response to Question 83 in the Poll 7 (b)Illustration of the Data Collected in Response to Question 23 and 24 in the Poll 8 Fig. 3: The Democratic Party Degree of Favourability 9 References 10 Question 1 Critical Assessment of the Data Collection Procedure Based on the provided data, it can be apparently observed that the poll was related to the impending 56th United States of America Presidential Election. The results of the poll had been published in ‘The New York Times.’ From a statistical viewpoint, it can be critically assessed that the data relating to the poll published by the aforementioned newspaper was collected by using the qualitative approach of research methodology. This can be justified with reference to the fact that the newest poll of New York Times/CBS was primarily conducted through telephonic interviews. As per the given facts as well as figures, it can be apparently observed that the telephonic interview was mainly performed during the month of October’2010 with 1,152 adults residing within the United States. Out of these participants, only 1046 were identified to be registered for casting vote in the 56th Presidential Election of the United States of America. In this similar context, it will be vital to mention that the data was mainly collected from the randomly selected sample. The sample in the poll was recruited through landline telephone exchanges through a computer from a completed register of over 42,000 active inhabited exchanges across the nation. The landline telephone exchanges were mainly selected for ensuring that particular region of the nation gets represented in proportion to its populaces. This eventually supported in preserving the reliability as well as the validity of the gathered data, which is regarded as one of the prime elements of the qualitative research approach (The New York Times, 2008). Apart from the above discussed aspects, the data in relation to the poll of the 56th United States of America Presidential Election was also collected by adding random digits within every exchange with the aim of designing a fully completed telephone number. This eventually resulted in authorising greater access towards listed along with unlisted numbers in a similar form. In order to obtain relevant and appropriate data, one adult within each household was selected on a random basis, as the respondent for the survey. Especially mentioning, in order to raise the coverage, the above discussed landline sample was viewed to be supplemented by the participants by dialling the cell phone numbers randomly. Thus, the two samples recruited for the survey included participants from landline telephone using random digits and random dialing of cellp hone numbers. The data obtained from the combined sources were then integrated for deriving positive and better results. Afterwards, the incorporated or the combined results were weighted for making neccassary adjustment in the variations relating to the sample with respect to geographic along with demographic factors. In this regard, the data was collected based on smaller subgroups which included marital status, age, geographical region, education, and race. Most vitally, the participants specifically the landline respondents were also duly weighted for determining the exact figure of telephone lines and the household size. In addition, apart from weighing the land-line respondents, the cell phone participants were also weighted with the intention of ascertaining that whether these respondents were reachable through land line or cell phone (The New York Times, 2008). In terms of critically assessing the manner in which the data collected in relation to the poll of the 56th United States of America Presidential Election, the certain findings linked with voting were also weighted by the inclusion of the approach “probable electorate.” This particular approach took into concern the responses particularly of those questions that dealt with voting likelihood, voting history and attention to the campaign. Thus, it can be affirmed from a statistical viewpoint that the data collection procedure carried out in this particular survey was deemed to be quite reliable and appropriate by a certain level. On the other hand, it can be affirmed that the data collection procedure performed in this survey might possess certain limitations. One of such limitations can be apparently traced as a larger sampling error. Specially mentioning, this crucial limitation is likely to occur in the data collection procedure due to a major probability of distinctions in the opinions of the respondents. In this regard, it is advisable that while collecting data, the generalisation of overall poll findings as well as results with maintaining appropriate ethical norms will be indispensable for generating positive outcomes in alignment with the attainment of the desired target (The New York Times, 2008). Question 2 Critical Assessment of the Published Newspaper Article From a statistical viewpoint, it can be critically asserted that the published newspaper article in ‘The New York Times’, which was primarily based on the poll data with respect to the 56th United States of America Presidential Election, depicted the significant fact of gaining popularity and fame amid the Bush voters by the Senator Barack Obama. In accordance with the article published by the above stated newspaper linked with the poll data, it can be ascertained that Senator Barack Obama is revealing surprising strength amid the portions of the political collation that eventually compelled Mr. George W. Bush to be returned to his original place, i.e. the White House four years back. It is worth mentioning that the published newspaper article highlighted the rising strengths of the US Senator Barack Obama in the final stage of his campaign that can be measured in the form of urging the people to vote a Democrat over a Republican, which was not prevalent in the nation since the year 1972 (Rutenberg & Connelly, 2008). By taking into concern the increased level of strengths that were revealed to be generated in the final stage of the campaign, the published article was found to demonstrate certain statistical results that determine the stronger political position held by the US Senator Barack Obama over Mr. McCain in the 56th United States of America Presidential Election. Based on the article published by the New York Times, it can be found that 52 percent of the probable voters would vote for Obama and 39 percent will be voting for Mr. McCain. Moreover, amid the registered voters, nearly 51 percent were identified to vote for the US Senator Obama and 38 percent will be voting for his contender i.e. Mr. McCain. Apart from raising strengths in the form of winning the hearts of the Republicans, the published article also revealed that the poll results are likely to be favouring Barack Obama than Mr. McCain in the context of handling the US economy in a better as well as sustainable manner. According to the poll results, it can be evidently asserted that 65 percent of the voters remained much confident about handling the economy of the nation by the US Senator Barack Obama quite effectively as compared to his contender i.e. Mr. McCain. On the other hand, 47 percent of the registered voters strongly believed that Mr. McCain can efficiently handle the US economy as compared to Barack Obama. The published article also stressed on the fact that Mr. McCain has questioned about the proposal of Obama towards raising income taxes specifically on the businesses as well as households that are in excess of $250, 000 yearly. However, this particular plan of the US Senator Barack Obama in relation to the financial plan was identified to gain significant support from the participants. In terms of statistical results of the poll, 62 percent of the participants denoted the plan as a better one and 33 percent considered the same as a bad idea (Rutenberg & Connelly, 2008). Question 3 (a) Illustration of the Data Collected in Response to Question 83 in the Poll The response in relation to question number 83 in the poll mainly illustrates the social class, which the respondents desire to belong in (The New York Times, 2008). This can be better understood with the help of the following diagrammatic representation: Fig.1: Social Class From the above illustrated diagrammatic representation, it can be evidently asserted that most of the respondents prefer middle class, as one of the names of social class, while providing their viewpoints about the polling because of attaining a vivid picture of the prevailing polling results (The New York Times, 2008). (b) Illustration of the Data Collected in Response to Question 23 and 24 in the Poll The data collected in response to question 23 and 24 in the poll mainly depict the support for the Republican Party and Democratic Party during the period 2002-2008. Evidently, in response to question number 23, the polling results deciphered that the Republican Party was less favourable than the Democratic Party, as the Americans tend to vote the US Senator Barack Obama for making effective financial plans (The New York Times, 2008). A pictorial illustration has been provided in the following for gaining a better comprehension about the aforesaid polling outcome: Fig. 2: The Republican Party Degree of Favourability Again, with respect to question number 24, the polling results portrayed that the Democratic Party was more favourable as compared to the Republican Party, which might be due to the reason of gaining much popularity by the US Senator Barack Obama amid the Bush voters (The New York Times, 2008). The following diagrammatical representation will certainly provide a brief idea about the above discussed polling result: Fig. 3: The Democratic Party Degree of Favourability References Rutenberg, J. & Connelly, M., 2008. Polls Show Obama Gaining Among Bush Voters. The New York Times, pp. 1-3. The New York Times, 2008. How the Poll Was Conducted. Politics, pp. 1-2. The New York Times, 2008. CBS News. Poll, pp. 1-28. Read More