Tech Tierra Forecasting - Case Study Example

Nevertheless, in the year 2012, Jose Mendes carried out exceptional job that pertained to forecasting on the sales for the previous numerous years and decided to leave Tech Tierra to identical company located within California. Thus, Ms. Granger employed me to carry out 12 months forecast that commenced September 2013 through to the August 2014 with $50,000 as the payment. Moreover, I was to be paid extra $ 50,000 bonus in case the forecast was precise by 10%. I gathered all the suitable sales data ranging from 2005 to the year 2011 then design appropriate report possessing numerous statistical values to aid in examining and determining the underlying forecast that I would develop.

The main statistical values that I would be employing include: Within the midst of the Tech Tierra financial year that commences from February of the first year to corresponding January of subsequent year, the report mainly forecast on the sale of the next 12 months commencing on September 2013 to the August 2014. Because Jose Mendes had decided to leave the company and never plan to carry out sales prediction for the outstanding and the forthcoming 12 months, Millie Granger, who is the CEO, is stranded since she does not comprehend the prediction of the upcoming 12 months prediction.

Subsequent to gathering of the data, analysis was generated, which was adequately massive in sample size hence enabling determination of numerous statistical values and their corresponding roles within the prediction. For appropriate assessment of the distribution of the underlying sales, we utilized the stat tools, single variable summary and time series as depicted within the Graph 1 and Table 1. The prevailing time series plot depitct stable upward trend within the slaes. Moreover, it also depicts existence of robust seasonal variations.

The plot also depict that the prevailing variation escalates with time. A suitable time series model homogenity