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Business forecasting - Essay Example

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These techniques are utilized in the several fields of management from marketing and sales to the inventory control to avoid unwanted hassles and manage…
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Business forecasting
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Download file to see previous pages If the data is from the point of view of sales of the softwood supplier it indicates positive. The number of unfilled orders according to the data is going down.
The analysis of the data, the methods which have been tried out and the reason behind trying these methods is given below. The papers also support the MS EXCEL sheet which has been prepared in order to analyze the data and forecast. The appropriate method is described below. The basis of choosing that particular method over the others is mentioned at the end of the paper.
Data analysis is done in various ways. The data when a manager looks at it he might look for the major variations, drops or growths, units time line etc in the first look. The data is useful or not it is decided here. The second step is presenting data in a graph or chart which gives clearer picture of the changes over a period of time. The number of data and the variables present are the basis to analyze it for the further forecasting process.
The data available has various factors in it which has been deciding factors of adopting a forecast method. The available when analyzed with Autocorrelation method, it has shown the following features in it.
If a series has trend, Yt and Yt-1 are highly correlated. The auto coefficient lag 1 is often very large (close to 1). As we can see from the above analysis the value of r1 is 0.807 which is close to one.
Not only this if have we observed the Graph of the unfilled orders over a period of time we find that it is decreasing. It can be inferred that the overall unfilled orders is decreasing over a period of time in the 110 observations. It shows a trend of decrease which is a positive impact for the organization or the industry. There are other factors which can have impact on this industry. These are various social, economic, technological and political factors which have been assumed to be constant over the period of time.
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