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Statistic with word and excel - Essay Example

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Cross Country Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility Rates 1. Introduction The world population growth is a matter of concern to sociologists, economists, politicians, demographers and policy planners. There is keen interest to be able to predict, as accurately as possible, the population growth rates into the foreseeable future, so as to plan and implement socio-economic policies and programs that will work to ensure continued economic progress for the broad segment of society…
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Download file to see previous pages Factors that are expected to influence female fertility rate are the country’s wealth, the women’s position in society, the general state of health of the country, and the strength of family planning programmes adopted in the country. The following variables are designated for the study: OBS = observation, i.e. record count TFR = the total fertility rate, proxy of the growth of the population GNPPC = Gross National Product per capita in US Dollars, the proxy for country wealth FL = the percentage of the female population who are literate, the proxy for women’s social position CM = the child mortality rate per 1000 of live births, as proxy of the country’s state of health FP = an index of the strength of family planning in the country This study shall seek to determine the extent to which population growth (TFR) may be explained by the country wealth (GNPPC), women’s social position (FL), the country’s state of health (CM), and the strength of family planning in the country (FP). 2. Descriptive statistics Data have been gathered for 64 periods, indicating the variables TFR, GNPPC, FP, CM, and FL. The tabulated values have been collated and their descriptive statistics follow: Descriptive statistics of data gathered   TFR GNPPC FP CM FL Mean 5.55 1401.25 36.60 141.50 51.19 Mode 6.50 300.00 16.70 142.00 22.00 Median 6.04 620.00 28.65 138.50 48.00 Max 8.49 19830.00 101.10 312.00 95.00 Min 1.69 120.00 3.70 12.00 9.00 Std Dev 1.51 2725.70 27.03 75.98 26.01 Six descriptive statistics have been garnered: mean, which is the average of the data items; the mode which is the value that appears most frequently, and the median which is the value of the term in the middle of the range of values. The range is indicated by the maximum and the minimum, which are also determined above. Finally, the standard deviation, which is a measure of how much the individual observations in each term differ from the mean value for the group; it is a measure of the dispersion of the data from the mean. The graph following shows the observations for the variables except GNPPC. The reason why GNPPC was left out of the graph was because the values of this variable are of a much higher order than the other variables, rendering the latter indistinguishable in a graph scaled to meet GNPPC. The line graphs do not appear to show any strong correlations in the variation of any of the variables with each other. A cursory inspection of the descriptive statistics shows that the mean is higher than the median and mode for the GNPPC, FP and FL, and higher than the median, but not the mode, for CM. This indicates that the distribution tends to converge towards the higher end of the value range for these independent variables. On the other hand, the mean for TFR is lower than both the mode and the median, suggesting that the values for the dependent variable tended towards the lower end of the value range. The difference in directions between dependent and independent variables appears to suggest a negatively correlated relationship. Moreover, outliers appear to exist in GNPPC, given the very high maximum value compared to either mean, mode or median. The high outlier may account for the abnormally high mean in comparison to the mode and median. In this ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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