Regression and Forecast of M&A Transactions in the UK - Essay Example

111). Despite the many benefits that accrue to acquisition as a growth strategy, the is significant diversity in the rate of acquisitions between different countries and different regions from across the world. The consequent disparity in the world’s acquisitions has necessitated the investigation into the predictors of this variable in this study, and hence its choice as the dependent variable. Beckeinsten examined the acquisition of firms based on the micro-economic factors that influence acquisition behaviors (26).

In his study, economic indicators such as GDP growth, interest rates and stock market index were tested through a series methodology. His findings were that acquisition activity inversely correlate with economic growth. In view of the findings from different empirical studies with respect to the potential predictors of acquisitions, it is crystal clear that the relationship between acquisition activities and the tested economic indicators is not only mixed but also unpredictable. The complexity, therefore, behind prediction of acquisition activities inspired the researcher of this study to investigate it further. . Figure 1: Rate of acquisition growth (1970-2012): the dependent variable.

(Data obtained from U.K office of national statistics) Figure 1 shows the graph of acquisition growth rate from 1970 to 2012. . The wave of acquisitions is characterized by ups and downs, a pattern that can be associated with economic cyclical patterns. If we can attribute this patter to economic cyclical patterns, then it seems there were major recessions in 1975, 1992 and 2010 and major expansions during 1973, 1978, 1988, 1994, 1999 and 2005. During an economic expansion, the rate of growth of acquisitions seems to increase significantly while the opposite happens during economic recessions.

To link these economic cycles to the earlier discussed macroeconomic variables; that is, stock price, market price and GDP, it can be argued that all the three variables move in a positive direction with economic expansion as well as in a positive direction with economic recession. During the time of economic expansion, the wealth of the shareholders tends to grow hence stimulating acquisitions. Increased level of economic activities is also expected to boost GDP growth rate, which sends positive signal to companies encouraging them to merge.

Furthermore, changes in stock prices affect the financial abilities of companies hence encouraging or discouraging them to merge. During the late 1980s the acquisitions seem to have flourished significantly due to the possible economic boom and a surge in the stock market. Nevertheless, the patterns exhibited in this graph are highly unpredictable and it would be of interest for economist to examine if there is a possibility of negatively linking these waves to important financial activities, which can raise concern over the negative impacts of acquisitions on the economy.

Part II Equation: Acquisition_growth = growth_of_market_value + growth_of_ordinary_share price + growth_of_gdp + c Discussion of the model Gross