Forecasting Sports Using HSM and SSM Techniques - Dissertation Example

FORECASTING SPORTS USING HSM AND SSM TECHNIQUES Introduction Sports remain an important gross domestic product earner for several nations, including Poland (quote). Recently Poland was home to the whole of Europe when it co-hosted the 2012 European Football Champion with Ukraine. Indeed, post tournament data has it that this tournament was the single largest contributor of sports to the economic growth of the Poland since the early 20th century (quote). Infrastructural development is another important benefit of hosting the European Football Championship to Poland. If for nothing at all, it is on record that there were the construction of new ultra modern stadiums across the country, construction of roads, hotels, security posts, training pitches and expansion of the national airport (quote). These are all activities that brought direct fiscal benefit to the Poland. Apart from the direct financial contribution of sports to the economy, there are other benefits that the hosting of such major tournaments do for countries, of which Poland was not exception in this regard. For example, it is common knowledge that hosting the European Football Champion puts the whole country on the world’s radial with so much media attention. This media attention easily translates into publicity for the country, which subsequently increases the urge for stakeholders, particularly investors and tourists to research about the country and tap whatever opportunities the country presents in terms of investment and tourism. In the present study, the tourism industry is going to be highlighted to outline how Poland as a country stands to benefit in using sports as a vehicle for tourism development. This shall be undertaken in the short-medium term, as well as projections for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the forecasting shall be done based on a number of statistical projections and models. Background to Poland and the 2012 European Championship This introduction is undertaken on Poland and the 2012 European championship because the subsequent statistical projections shall be drawn in relation to all three areas of the tournament namely pre-tournament season, tournament season and post-tournament season. The 2012 European Championship, commonly referred to as EURO 2012 was hosted in joint with Ukraine. This was known as far back as on 18th April 2007 when UEFA boss Michel Platini made the announcement in Cardiff (quote). Poland and Ukraine were selected ahead of other bidding countries including Italy, Hungary and Croatia, who were thought to be more formidable contenders in the race. Poland contributed six host cities namely Gdansk, Warsaw, Poznan, Krakow, Wroclaw, and Chorzow. The remaining cities were in Ukraine, including Kiev, which hosted the finals of the tournament. One significant aspect of Poland’s win of the bid over other countries is that analysts hold the view that it marked a shift of balance of power in football, where by Eastern European countries were noted to be dormant when it came to European football action (quote). Indeed, Poland also did not disappoint with the hosting of the EURO. Hosting was perhaps sparked by the ownership of intellectual property rights on a number of tournament licensed products including mascots, footballs, songs, T-shirts, caps and scarves (quote). Whiles construction of infrastructure for the tournament went on; there was the formation of what became known as Friends of UEFA EURO 2012 to familiarize Poland with other qualifying countries and preparations for hosting the tournament. Consequently, all preparations were set ahead of time and the tournament kick started on June 8, 2012 with Poland drawing 1-1 with former champions Greece. Overview of the Hard and Soft Systems Methodology There shall be the application of two major methodologies in an integrated formatted. These are the hard and soft system methodology, often referred to as HSM and SSM. Through such an integrated system, there shall be an opportunity to undertake a mixed data collection procedure using both qualitative and quantitative methods (quote). Indeed, HSM and SSM also become highly suitable as the situation being dealt with currently has components of social, political, and human activity (quote). Another important factor that makes the selection of Hard and Soft Systems Methodology ideal is that it guarantees that differentiation between hard and software systems. This way, a hybrid system is generated, whereby the two forms of systems would not necessarily have to be utilized in isolation (quote). With a hybrid system in forecasting the sport tourism potentials and fortunes for Poland in relation to the hosting of the 2012 European Football Championship, best solutions can be guaranteed for not just the human dimensions but the technical dimensions as well. The human dimension would however be incorporated at an early stage of the soft systems, so as to ensure that all groups that should be involved are captured for the development of a solution (quote). The hard system would then be concentrated on the scientific techniques in optimizing a solution. But the most important point in all of these situations is that the systems are not going to be used in a differential manner but in an integrated format to ensure that the full potentials of scientific hybrid system is achieved. Steps in HSSM Application for Forecasting the Sport Tourism Potentials for Poland (196 each) Problem Situation The present problem being investigated is the untapped tourism potentials that Poland holds in sports, especially after hosting the European Championship in 2012. Available statistics has it that the Poland 2012 EURO tournament was the single largest sporting event in the whole of Easter after a similar event was hosted in that region in the 1930s (quote). This means that EURO 2012 presented Poland with a life long opportunity for the country to tap in harnessing its full socio-economic potentials. There is an assurance of the availability of the tourism potentials as international bodies including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given positive forecasts of the post 2012 GDP projections for the country. In the graph below, it can be seen that post 2012 economic climate of Poland, which could directly be attributed to the hosting of the EURO is a positive one and thus what is left to do is for officials and other stakeholders to understand that there exists an opportunity that is yet to be harvested. Source: Prior (2012) From the graph, a clearer picture of the problem identified is seen. From the projections of the International Monetary Fund, Poland is set to grow its gross domestic product. However, authorities have currently not identified the role of tourism in this growth dimension (quote). Expressing Problem Situation From a human activity systems perspective, a logical sequence of the sports tourism potentials for Poland can be established. This sequence starts with the bidding process, which was first suggested by the Sports Minister of Poland as far back as June 2003 (quote). By this announcement, Poland came to the sporting lime light as it was not one of the usual suspects for hosting the tournament. Then the bid was won and the tournament was hosted. The hosting is the second sequence, which attracted the third sequence, made of the media publicity that Poland had as a result of hosting the tournament. Statistics available suggest that there were 29 territories given sports broadcasting rights. A minimum of 27 out of 31 matches played were given to 21 out of the 29 territories. The financial accumulation that this resulted in was $2 billion from television rights alone. On the flip side, the publicity that the country received in news broadcasts on various levels of preparations for the tournament were all part of the media advantage that Poland received as a result of the tournament. There is another segment that has to do with infrastructure development. In the table below by Humphrey (2006) outlines the expenditure for infrastructural development alone, which gives a sum of an $8 billion on motorway alone. Estimated Cost of Hosting EURO 2012 for Poland Source: Humphrey (2006) The four segments discussed above leads up to the fact that the tournament yielded an estimated 700,000 visitors to the country, as given by the government of Poland (quote). Indeed the socio-economic activities of these visitors, the lessons they learnt about Poland, the discoveries they made about Poland and the hospitality they received from the people of Poland together form the basis of the new tourism industry paradigm that is expected to be created. The human activity system is thus represented in the diagram below. Human Activity System for Creating a New Tourism Paradigm for Poland Root Definitions of Relevant Systems Conceptual Models Comparison of Models to Real World Feasible and Desired Changes Action to Improve Problem Pearsons Correlation Coefficient, r (150, 150) • Hard and soft system methodology • Forecasting methods –including the application of extrapolation techniques • Generation of relevant graphs including the application of Pearson’s Coefficient • Critical thinking • Poland - infrastructure • European Football Championships 2012 – ticket sales, revenue (TV rights), inbound tourism, GDP, hotel occupancy, social and legacy benefits. Ps note Intro A brief intro to Poland and the EURO, HSM and SSM Pearsons Correlation Coefficient, r Graphs can be included in the main body and a discussion about each graph and a summary Please include at least 4 graphs each graph must have the r2 value Conclusion/recommendation Use journal articles : brad r Humphreys and Szymon Prokopowicz article on “assessing the impact of sports mega-events in transition economies: EURO2012 in Poland and Ukraine, wttc has statistic on tourism etc just some examples…thanks Prior K (2012). Euro 2012: Will Poland’s economy benefit from hosting a European Championship? http://www.just-football.com/2012/06/euro-2012-will-polands-economy-benefit-from-hosting-european-championship/ Read More