Hispanic Political Party and Voter Affiliation in America - Research Paper Example

Hispanic Political Party and Voter Affiliation in America Isabella Sanchez DeArman Sociology 3312 The voting pattern of the Hispanic community in the 2008 and 2012 presidential election has been an indication of the potential influence their uniform vote can have in the final outcome of the results. They identify themselves with the Democratic Party because it advocates for their needs of equality, immigration reforms and being part of the American civil society. Their strong support for liberal ideologies has kept a consistent trend, so much so that their small percentage has shifted to the conventional policies (Stockley, 2008). Findings in the SDA 4.0 tables indicate that Hispanics have more preference for the Democratic Party compared to the Republican Party in both national and state elections. Hispanic voters have also influenced the outcomes of presidential election as evidenced by the frequency distribution in the output. CONTENTS Title…………………………………………………………………………... 1 Abstract……………………………………………………………………… 2 Contents……………………………………………………………………... 3 SECTION 1………………………………………………………………... 4 1.1 Introduction………………………………………………………… 4 1.2 Objectives…………………………………………………………… 5 1.3 Statement of hypotheses……………………………………………. 5 SECTION 2………………………………………………………………... 6 1.1 Literature review…………………………………………………... 6 SECTION 3………………………………………………………………… 8 3.1Research questions………………………………………………… 8 3.2Research design and methodology………………………………… 9 3.3Sapling design………………………………………………………. 9 3.4 Analysis and results………………………………………………….. 10 3.5 Conclusion and discussion………………………………………... 11 Bibliography………………………………………………………………… 12 Appendix A…………………………….…………………………………….. 13 Appendix B…………………………………………………………………… 15 SECTION 1 1.1 Introduction The term Hispanics in the United States identifies Spanish-speaking people with origins from countries such as Cuba, Peru, Costa Rica and Mexico. Their homogeneity especially in areas where they are densely populated makes them an influential force in American politics. In 2012, Hispanics comprised 17.2% of the total population and 8.9% of the actual voters in the US (Abrajano and Alvarez, 2012).The American culture has diversified groups including liberal and conservative elements, materialists, scientific and religious competitors who have equal rights to freedom of expressing their opinions. Hispanics are considered to be more liberal meaning they are open to political or social change with only 23% being conservative. In the mid-term election in 2010, although Republicans gathered more victories, 60% of the Hispanics voted Democratic while 38% voted Republican (Belkhir, 2008). As evidenced in the 2008 presidential election, 67% of the Hispanics supported Barrack Obama and their support for Democrats is growing in recent mid-term elections as the younger generation of voters emerges (Lopez, 2007). Hispanics differ in voting trends depending on their ethnicity and their backgrounds. Colombian and Cuban Americans tend to support conservative political ideologies while Dominican, Puerto Rican and Mexican Americans favor liberal views. President George W Bush’s presidency had a significant impact on political leanings of Hispanics and Latinos (Lopez, 2007). However, after illegal immigration and Republican scandals, Hispanics and Latinos strongly supported Democrats and have maintained this trend since the election of Clinton. Their support is derived from moral values and the struggle for justice, equality and inclusion in the American civil society. Results from SDA 4.0 output are the basis used in testing the hypothesis of the correlation in Hispanic community political party association and their voting trends. 1.2 Objectives of the research General The general objective of conducting this research is to define the political stand of the Hispanic voters in the United States and how it affects the national tally of electoral results. Hispanic sociological behavior of political affiliation will impact their collective voting strategy, thereby this study will asses why they have a strong support for political parties with particular views. Specific The research will determine the different channels of communication systems used in Hispanic populations to gather support for a political party. Issues on immigration are always part of the political opinions formulated by the Hispanic and Latino population. This study will investigate political parties’ views on issues affecting this society and how such opinions have influenced the political support from Hispanics. In addition, this case will elaborate on the different moral, religious and societal values that influence the voting patterns in this group together with their social-economic positions. 1.3 Statement of the hypotheses This study will establish the political affiliation of the Hispanic voters in the United States and how their cast votes affect the final results of both the national and state levels. In order to conclusively formulate the hypothesis of Hispanic political support, analysis of the views of newly registered voters who are much younger will estimate the possible outcome if they were to participate in the election. The hypothesis in which the thesis of the case will be built on will be accurate in order to avoid the type I and II errors. The null hypothesis (Ho) states that the Hispanic population supports all the political parties in the United States proportionately regardless of the parties’ ideologies. The alternative hypothesis (HA) states that the Hispanic population strongly supports one political party in the United States based on the party’s ideologies. SECTION 2 2.1 Literature Review In a study of Hispanic trends conducted in 2011 by Pew Research 45% of the Latinos said that the Democratic Party had more concerns for their society while 12% preferred the Republican Party. Although the number of supporters of the Democratic Party was higher, it had declined in percentage from 55 % in 2008 with the Republican Party increasing their percentage from 6% as shown in (Figure 1 Appendix A) (Pew Hispanic Center, 2007). In 2011, 33% of the Hispanic population stated that they did not see any difference between the two parties (Abrajano and Alvarez, 2012). Latinos have a strong association for the Democratic Party with 67% of their registered voters identifying with it and only 20% were for the Republican Party as shown in (Figure 2 Appendix A). In 2013, the Public Religion Research Institute determined how varying religious identities and experiences influence political approaches in Hispanics. Several research questions distinguished that a higher percentage of the population favored the Democratic Party over the Republicans as shown in (Figure 3 Appendix A). 53% of the Hispanics identify as Catholics, 25% as Protestants and 12% are religious unaffiliated as indicated by the case study (Khari, 2011). The Catholic affiliated adult percentage has dropped from 69% in childhood while the Protestants increased to 13% and non religious to 12% as shown in (Figure 4 Appendix A)(Pew Hispanic Center, 2007). The study found that immigration is also a contributing factor with 67% of the Hispanics say illegal immigrants in United States be allowed to register as citizens while 17% say they should be allowed to be permanent residents but not citizens. Therebyacross religion and bipartisan support for immigration reforms among Latinos and Hispanics has existed for a long period with 72% of Hispanics supporting Democrats reforms. Economic imbalance has also made Hispanics seek government invention in bridging this gap to allow more economic opportunities to the people. Another literature review is on the effect of Comprehensive Immigration Reforms (CIR) on the Latino political behavior conducted before and after the 2012 elections. Latinos overwhelmingly voted for Barrack Obama by 75% that was a determinant in his presidential election (Lopez, 2007). Election eve poll showed that immigration ranked as the second most important issue after the economy. As shown in (Figure 5 Appendix A) immigration policy is still a priority for the Latino electorate. The study also indicated that 34% of the Latinos would support the Republican Party if it supported the CIR, however the issue on immigration id divisive among Republican Party members in the congress. Gallup daily tracking data conducted research on individual Hispanics to establish which parties they would lean or identify themselves with. In total, 51% of the Hispanics identified with the Democrats, 24% with Republicans and 20% with no affiliation at all as shown in (Figure 6 Appendix A). The study was carried out on 26,264 Latinos from January to December 2012. The study found out that the increased population of Hispanics would have an impact on the politics in the United States. Therefore, efforts by the Republican Party outreach on the younger Hispanics above 18 years are underway because they make up 47% of all adults in the population (Pew Hispanic Center, 2007). SECTION 3 3.1 Research Questions 1. Does Hispanic status correlate with political party identification? 2. Which political party do Hispanics most identify with? 3. Does status correlate with voting patterns? 4. Has a predominant relationship maintained over the years? (12-year period in specific) 5. Are those with Hispanic status more likely to vote Democrat? 3.2 Research Design and Methodologies Correlation and causal comparative research studies will facilitate collection of systematic data so that the stated hypotheses can be tested and selected. This research design attempts to explain possible behavior of two variables and how change in any one of them would affect the other. Quantitative and qualitative research will be used because both discrete numerical and non-numerical data will give a clear opinion to be used to test the hypotheses. These two methods complement each other and therefore help in reducing bias, since individually used data can be misinterpreted. The steps involved in correlating data include; formulating objectives, designing methods of collecting data, selecting sample, data collection and data analysis. 3.3 Sampling design The selected sample represented the total population and indicated the specific parameters of interest regarding variables to be studied in the Hispanic political views. Probabilistic sampling provided a better emphasis on determining the precision of estimate and in return making it easier to develop a confidence level. By using stratified random sampling the population was divided into sub groups called strata then a sample selected from each stratum. The sample had to be proportional, that is, the items in all stratums are in the same portion as in the entire society so that the optimal results could be derived. The statisticalinference of the sample in such method are either known or assumed so that a hypothesis can be analyzed with prior theoretical knowledge. 3.4 Analysis and Results The study was based on bivariate analysis to test the hypothesis of Hispanic societal variables correlation to politics in the United States. Two political parties, the Republican and the Democratic Party, were given emphasis in this study because they had more data relating to Latinos and Hispanic registered voters. Measurement of derived data consisted of two essential steps being operationalization and conceptualization. The interval level of measurement proved to be the amicable analysis tool as numbers were assigned to each measure and ranked to define meaningful quantities. Differences caused by the respondents, the measurer or by situational factors were reduced to boost the confidence interval of the decision made to test hypothesis. Likewise, extraneous variables were identified and minimized prior to them affecting the outcome of statistical analysis. In addition, test and re-test technique used involved administering similar instruments twice to the same group of subjects to determine the reliability of a measure when repeated on a future date. The results are later compared and correlated with the initial test to conform accuracy and reliability. Frequency data from SDA 4.0 tables in 2012 indicate that Hispanic people had a ration of77.5% to 25.5% relating to those who opted for the Democratic Party over the Republican Party. This data is however much lower than what was indicated in 2000 where the ratio stood at 81.7% to 18.3% thus showing that more Hispanics are shifting to the Republican political side. To elaborate on this trend from 2000, the SDA 4.0 tables indicate that majority of the Hispanics voted for Clinton than Dole in the presidential race by 78.6% to 21.6% respectively and in 2008 75.8% voted for Obama and 24.2% were for McCain. These voting patterns estimate conclusively that the Hispanics are more likely to vote for liberal ideologies and therefore expected that the Latino origin people will vote democrat. According to this findings the Hispanic people correlate with political party identification of the Democratic Party, a correlation that has existed for over 12 years since the presidential election in 2000. 3.5 Conclusion and Discussion The Hispanic community is highly homogeneous in their political views given that each individuals share similar grievances and are looking for the party that will promote change and reforms (Gastón, 2007). This is in line with the findings derived from the SDA 4.0 output tables that show how the Hispanics voted in unity. For example immigration reforms are less supported by the Republican Party and thereby having little influence on the Latinos political wills (Abrajano and Alvarez, 2012). In recent years, this community has increases in numbers and is ultimately a determining factor for the party that seeks more votes from marginalized groups. In the output data on presidential elections since 2000, Hispanics have voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates thus it is an indication of their support for the Party. However, as the younger generation of registered voters is growing, they drift away from the societal norms and make different political opinions based on other factors as economic prospects, health and infrastructure development (Lopez, 2007). As much as more people have shifted to the Republican Party, the cumulative number of Hispanics in the Democratic Party is still high. References Jean Ait Belkhir (2008) Race, Gender & Class: Afterword Race, Gender, Class Lessons from the 2008 Presidential ElectionVol. 15, No. 3/4, pp. 127-138 Abrajano, M., & Alvarez, R. M. (2012).New faces, new voices: The Hispanic electorate in America. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. López, M. H., & Pew Hispanic Center. (2007). The Hispanic vote in the 2008 election. Washington, D.C: Pew Hispanic Center. Khari Brown R. (December 2011) Review of Religious Research, Religion, Political Discourse, and Activism among Varying Racia l/Ethnic Groups in America Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 301-322 Joshua Stockley ( 2008) Race, Gender & Class, Social Forces and the Primary Vote: Examining Race, Gender, Age, and Class in the 2008 Presidential Primaries Vol. 15, No. 3/4 (2008), pp. 32-50 Gastón Espinosa (Jul., 2007) Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, "Today We Act, Tomorrow We Vote": Latino Religions, Politics, and Activism in Contemporary U.S. Civil Society Vol. 612, Religious Pluralism and Civil Society, pp. 152-171 Appendix A: Figure 1 Figure 2 (Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2002-2011 National survey of Latinos) Figure 3 (source publicreligion.org) Figure 4 (source: publicreligion.org) Figure 5 (source: Latino decisions/ America’s Voice, June 2013 (N=500) Figure 6 (source: gallup.com) Appendix B: (outputs go here) Read More