Hazard and Risk Management in Sweden - Case Study Example

HAZARD AND RISK MANAGEMENT Student name Institution Professor Class City Date of submission Introduction Just like any other country, Sweden experiences several risks that are affecting its citizens and causes interference in the economic performance. As a result, the country embarked on developing more informed assessment techniques for identifying major risks affecting its society (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2015, 35). Moreover, such strategies aims at building the capacities of the local communities to prevent, manage, and recover from the occurrence of serious incidents and events. The main idea is that the national risk and capability assessment might assist in facilitating coordination, prioritization, and building of the country’s system of emergency preparedness. It is from such background the Swedish government commissioned the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) to continue producing the national risk assessment, which commenced in 2011. Besides, MSB initiated the work of developing a more coherent and reliable process that would ensure production of national risk and capability assessment. The major document that resulted from the commission is the Swedish National Risk Assessment in 2012, which constitutes the procedures required to develop collectively method of preventing and managing several risks within different scopes of operations (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2015, 28). To enable these assessments work effectively, the report identified common risks within the country that cause detrimental effects on the people and attempt to reduce by determining the probability of their occurrence. It is not only the role of the central government to ensure that these assessment practices are effective but also the local administrators, municipal council, and county officers. Besides, the report established different definitions of risks for both natural and accidental depending on magnitude or scale. It is the responsibility of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, MSB, and the EU cooperation to manage the operations of the national risks assessment (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 24). An effective method must ensure that people are aware of the risks the assessment is trying to manage and strengthen the capacity of the emergency management strategies. Summary The nature of event in question, several risks are likely to exist. However, the magnitude and detrimental effects of these risks might differ depending on the outline provided by the report. Selection of the risks for analysis depends on its level of severity. Upon selection, the management then focuses on the prevention mechanisms of developing effective measures that light help address the risks. The determination of the risk factors constitutes various strategic steps that ensure proper management of the underlying circumstances. It is necessary to outline the various schemes in establishing the most effective and efficient preparedness model as guided by the European guidelines and the Swedish NRR 2015 findings. Establishing the most appropriate method of curbing the increased number of risks in Sweden The assessment of scenarios 2013 and 2015 used workshops and model of operation. Moreover, it incorporates the skills of the experts in the evaluation process, which plays an important role in providing qualitative analysis of the common risks like those that disrupt GNSS and shortages in fuels that continue to contribute in the decline of food supply within the country. In most cases, relying public to provide information might lead to biasness and inaccuracy, which could lead to application of parallel and ineffective models. There are factors determining the reason of conducting the assessment including the underlying complexities that require both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the information at hand. Human Pandemics According to the report, human pandemics pose serious risks to people. The nature of the pandemics like diseases keeps changing from time to time. In Sweden, the nature of influenza changed over the past five years making the most prevalent disease affecting specified populations. There are different types of influenza affecting both the humans and poultry leading to serious problems. However, with the development of the immunity drugs for influenza, the probability of occurrence of the disease in U.K. declined since the country made the drug available across the health facilities. The human pandemic constitutes one of the major element of risks that affect many people and have a higher possibility of repetition. Flooding The report identified floods as the major type of risk within the coastal areas associated with the increasing temperatures. As a result, the assessment at creating preventing and management models of restricting the often occurrence of floods within the regions. Furthermore, the assessment method used depended on different secondary sources than the primary analysis of the prevailing situations. Methodology General process and methodology Six-staged methodology model The conduction of the work involves six stages through a prediction of the outcomes at the various stages. The various stages of assessing risk include Specification of the risk Identification of the risk: the risks are identified depending on the impending adversity. Selection of risks of events for analysis: the stage involves the analysis of the degree of various risks and their impact on the surrounding area. The development of the scenario of the identified adverse events Analysis of the scenarios which includes likelihood, uncertainty and impacts assessments. Synthesis and evaluation of the risks Figure 1: Risk management model (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency 2012, 26) Implication of the Methodology Model The method is beneficial since it is capable of providing a complete separation of the various risks limiting the possibility of repetitive analysis of the risks. Secondly, the risk assessment also includes multiple other components at the synthesis and analysis stage and synthesis stage. It also involves a gradual degree of events especially focusing on impacts, likelihood, and uncertainty. The protection of risks is necessary in various elements that are likely to contribute to the recurrence of such risks. Nevertheless, the elements of protection do not portray the best preparedness characteristics of risk since they only focus on protecting the human life leaving other elements to the risk. The possibility of achieving the best protection requires a series of diverse elements focusing on the entire environment. The elements protected include: Human health and life Human rights, democracy, rule of law and freedoms Society’s functionality Environment and economic assets National sovereignty Risk identification: the stage involves monitoring of some of the conditions that are likely to cause negative impacts on the surrounding. The identification focuses on threat, path of contact and protection of value. The risk identification in the NRR involved an analysis of 200 risks between 2010 and 2011 (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency 2012, 23). The assessment involved 40 submissions out of the 113 proposals submitted. The risk identification involved so many instances that reducing to less than a half is likely to portray a disparity in inaccuracy that limits attendance to the most preferable risks. Selection of events for analysis: out of the 40 events earlier cataloged, according to Sweden MSB, the country can only handle 5- 10 risks per year (NRR 2012, 34). Driving a comparison with the total risks presented, the selection constitutes only an eighth limiting the effectiveness of the preventing the occurrence of such analysis. The assessment selection criteria do not meet the criteria of crisis in a community and sometimes the event covered do not entail the national risks. However, the selection criteria consider pertinent elements of risks such as pandemic, nuclear accident, failure in electric supply and dam failure among other diverse risks. Figure 2: Risk matrix Scenario development: entails further analysis of the risks through the relevant authorities and the possibility of covering such risks in the prevention model (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012). The process involves the analysis of the occurrence of the risks as well as the reemerging cases of various elements of risks. It focuses on the worst probable risks. Indicators for national protection values (table) Synthesis and risk evaluation: the stages involve the drawing of the conclusions of the risks using the common risks matrix. The model is essential in providing the necessary implication of covering the various selected risks that undergo through the stages. Results and Discussions The scenario analyses of 2012 based mostly on workshop involving experts and key individuals. Even though the participants were able to evaluate the workshops it contributed to extensive disruption of GNSS, fuel shortage resulting in food supply disruption. The survey completed by 34 respondents out of the 43 participants showed a representation of 79% (NRR 2012, 29). The results indicated a satisfaction analysis of the risks. In fact, 94% of the participants accepted the extensive role of the workshops with only 6% rejecting the selection model. As seen from the analysis, 97% of the participants noted the role of MSB in preparing them for the satisfaction in the risk preparation model (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012). The channel of risk assessment requires various logistics that ensure proper analysis to understand the best practices. The planning of the UK government, emergency responders, and devolved administration, outline preparedness scheme of risks, particularly terrorism to include; Pursue: entails stopping the attack by terrorists Prevent: stopping individuals from joining terror groups Protect: strengthening people off an attack Prepare: mitigating the impact in cases where stopping fails Important revisions and lessons The risk assessment model is a progress though does not comply with the European’s Commission guidelines. Therefore, the evaluation process requires further measures, methods and analytical models that enables acquisition of the necessary situations. A proper refining of the Swedish scale of risk matrix is essential since it provides limited comparison between the various three elements of risks. The system also neglects the possibility of much threat from the combined risks of some neglected risks. Therefore, a proper measuring method is important. Partial correspondence is observable between the European’s guidelines and the Swedish protection values particularly democracy and society’s functionality. The systems of measure have different dimensions other social and political as well as democracy, human rights and freedoms which are very broad in scope. The analysis of such elements requires proper clarification to establish clarification of the indicators of relevance. Contrary to the NRR 2015, the NRR 2012 failed to outline the likelihood, impact, and uncertainty of the impending risks analyzed to the final stage making their synthesis and evaluation difficult to predict their reemergence. Conclusion Risk preparedness and management include various models of stages that require proper analysis. A clear disparity is evident between the management risks and the incidence of such risks. Even though there are various risks that require coverage, the identification of the most probable risks is essential. The essence of proper risk management is essential, and it must be in line with the European guidelines. The preparation of risk follows a particular mechanism with international acceptance and, therefore, requires a thorough analysis to avoid possible rejection. References National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. (2015). National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. (2012). Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012. Read More