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Open forum intelligence analysis - Essay Example

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From the beginning of this course, I have been able to widen my scope on matters to do with intelligence analysis and the use of the structured methodologies. Furthermore, I have been able to learn more about functions needed in processing information and some bit about…
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Open Forum Intelligence Analysis From the beginning of this I have been able to widen my scope on matters to do with intelligence analysis and the use of the structured methodologies. Furthermore, I have been able to learn more about functions needed in processing information and some bit about cognitive bias. However, I do not seem to understand some aspects mostly to do with Analysis of Competing Hypothesis.
To my understanding, ACH is an analytical process that recognizes an entire set of optional hypothesis, thoroughly evaluates data for consistency and inconsistency and thereafter either reject or accept the hypothesis. My primary concern is how can I efficiently conduct an ACH by use of the subjective process? How is the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis different from conventional intuitive analysis (Hypotheses 2008)?
Richards asserts that there might be no apparent guarantee that any form of analysis might produce accurate answers. Reason being, it all depends on imperfect human judgment on incomplete information. Consequently, this has led to the failure of intelligence systems. Therefore, what are some of the essential factors needed to make the analysis of competing hypothesis more effective (Intelligence Reports 2013)?
Thank you in advance for you timely response. It will be of great significance towards improving my intelligence analysis and critical thinking skill.
References
Hypotheses, Analysis of Competing. "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses." Central Intelligence Agency . July 2008. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art11.html (accessed October Thursday, 2014).
"Intelligence Reports." Air University . August 2013. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-ntel.htm (accessed October Thursday, 2014). Read More
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