The PRC-Taiwan Crisis - Essay Example

The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative Outcomes Introduction In 1949, Chinese-Taiwanese conflict commenced following a move by the Chinese Community Party1. This party overthrew the nationalist regime of China’s Republic. In the next year, China’s Community power created another group named as People’s Republic of China before carrying out an ambush on Taiwan. Their mission was however unsuccessful. This is because, United States kicked in into the conflict. U.S intervened by sending naval forces that defended the Taiwan leading to a state of political instability in the two states that has proved difficult to end. The two states have lived in a state of lack of independence living in a situation where there is neither war nor peace but only tension and mistrust2. Some of the attacks China organized against Taiwanese include the bombing of two islands in Taiwan in 1958, as well as the March 1966 incident where China tested missiles in Taiwan’s coast3. There are a number of solutions that have been thought will bring an end to this crisis and they include a diplomatic solution, direct attack as well as limited intervention. Hypotheses claim that diplomatic solutions will however influence the end of the conflict whereas using limited intervention may increase tension amongst the populace living in the two states4. In addition, using direct attacks may encourage other attacks from supporting nations. Considering these views concerning the possible solutions, an analysis is conducted to evaluate the outcome that will most probably occur to that with the least probability of occurrence. Outcome Accessed to be more likely to Occur: Diplomatic Solution Coming to a diplomatic solution is the most likely outcome that will solve the PRC-Taiwanese conflict. Settling both sides and enabling them to see the necessity of bringing an end to the war is necessary. A diplomatic solution will help since it will not favour any side but be fair. Favouring one side usually culminates into increased tension in the opposing side in addition to increased attacks and reduced chances of peace and independence. The hypothesis that comes accompanied with this solution states that the diplomatic solution used will influence the end of the war. The hypothesis is true since the solution will direct how the two states will work into solving their disputes as well as how the will work once they are already stable. A solution that does not consider the future of these two states should not be selected over a solution that has considered the social, political and economic development plans for China and Taiwan. Diplomatic solutions show positive signs that it will be the perfect remedy. This is evident from the fact that Taiwan has considered the option of lowering its military alert status. This is the first move to show that there is decreased mistrust amongst the two states. In addition, evidence is the presented by the United Nations Security Council who are ready to address the developing crisis. This is a bold move that presents a lot of hope that it will bring the crisis down. The United Nation organizations are known to proceed with fairness as they solve conflicts. Evidence that support my claim, showing advancements that have been successful as they ensure a diplomatic solution is reached at include the fact that the current president of Taiwan, known as Chen Shui-bian agreed to send some people to discuss the condition of the crisis and national matters on his behalf. This was 50 days before their election and it is definitely proves that Taiwan is ready to solve the matter through diplomatic means. This evidence assumes that sending representatives’ shows that the president is ready to conduct peace talks as well as the fact that Taiwan will implement the things learnt and make positive changes hence influence PRC to do the same. The second most likely outcome to occur: Limited intervention This is the second most possible outcome to solve the PRC-Taiwan conflict is limited intervention into the crisis. It comes second because the common and evident intervention into this crisis is the United States. The United States involved itself with the Chinese-Taiwanese war because of its personal gains. America viewed China as a likely future competitor because it showed the capability of rapid development. As much as the intervention of the United States was of personal interests, it has progressively made an impact in the crisis that cannot be left unmentioned. It is also necessary as a solution to the crisis since the United States is in a position to control the two states directly or indirectly. The hypothesis of this intervention states that limited intervention may increase tension amongst the states. This is true in this case since the United States has been helping Taiwan right from the start. In addition, the United States is the one that has been providing arms to this Asian region. Provision of arms show increased tension since the inhabitants will know that there is an impending attack following the receipt of the arms. At some point, the US sought to consider their relationship with the Taiwan because it is was of much benefit as it frustrated the relationship between the United States and Taiwan5. The united states have gauged that china may overtake it in terms of gross domestic product as well as military prowess in the coming thirty years. This brings the need for them to review how the handle issues and the first step should be the withdrawal of selling armoury to this region. Withdrawing from intervention now is not the best move for America since they will not benefit, neither will Taiwan or China hence no problems will be solved6. Evidence supporting this claim includes the fact that the current president of Taiwan increased the alert status of Taiwan defence force. He did these 65 days before elections and it shows the heightened mistrust that is present in the states. Limited intervention will mean that the United States should reduce moves that increase insecuries in the warring states. Another evidence that supports the hypothesis include the fact that here was an increase in military communications, 60 days before elections between the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF units at the PRC eastern coast. This shows that they have beefed up their security to prevent any attacks. In addition, the linchpin evidence shows that the same president addressed Ma Ying Jeons claiming that the Taiwanese will not stand and watch the PRC interfere with Taiwan’s affairs. This bold talk was a show of surety on the part of the Taiwan resident because he knew they have support hence can fight. This therefore shows that if the intervention is limited, it will solve the crisis since such talks that stir up anger and the urge to fight will be reduced. In addition, this threat has political, economical and military aspect that may put PRC away hence will not try to interfere with national activities of Taiwan. Direct attack Solving the crisis through direct attack is less likely to occur since if PRC launched an attack towards the Taiwanese, they may not succeed especially if the United States joined in. This is because they may lack the military capability to fight America and in order to win; a many of their personnel as well as inhabitants will be killed. In addition, china cannot risk this move because a win for Taiwan will make them seem as an independence and sovereign power by the major powers such as Europe, US and, Russia. It will also mean that china lose on conducting its exports to the developed world. This would increase unemployment rates in China hence resulting into decreased economic and political stability. The hypothesis claims that direct attack may encourage other attacks from supporting nations. This is true since there are a number of nations that have varied interest between the two states. If a direct attack is launched it shows that other nations will join the war to satisfy their personal desires. China has surely considered the consequences of such a move and it will be very hard for them to conduct an attack towards Taiwan. Taiwan on its part seems more relaxed evident from the fact that it has considered lowering its military alert level. Taiwan seems convinced that in case of any attack, they will receive support from other states that view china as a competition7. This satisfies the hypothesis that, direct attack attracts other states in to the war. China on its part has however not reduced its military alert levels because they are afraid of what an attack can cause of their nation. This therefore confirms that using direct attack is the least likely solution to the problem. Evidence supporting this hypothesis includes the fact that there have been a number of naval exercises near Taiwan. This shows how much other states will join the war in case of a direct attack. While some will support Taiwan, others will support PRC. 45 days before the elections, there was a footage that showed military personnel conducting and exercise that aimed at destabilizing PRC. This shows the likelihood of this outcome because the preparations are already in place. The linchpin evidence supporting this hypothesis includes the fact that the armed forces of the PRC are not going to spare anyone that may undermine the sovereignty of their party. This presents the readiness on the PRC side, this statement has been offered in form of a warning, and it may want to present that the conflict can be solved through direct attacks. In addition, this evidence also shows that PRC exalts its sovereignty and will not settle for anything else as well as the fact that they are well prepared to protect their sovereignty. Bibliography Bush, Richard C. Uncharted Strait the Future of China-Taiwan Relations. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013. Hunkovic, Lee. “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America.” In 520 Analytic Methods, American Military University. n.d. Rigger, Shelley. “Why giving up Taiwan will not help us with China.” America Enterprise Institute. November 29, 2011. Read More