International Relations: China, ASEAN Countries - Essay Example

Introduction As China grows economically and militarily more rapidly than ever, several regional observers become restless with respect to the consequences of this rising Chinese power in the Asia Pacific region. It is expected that the region would be a different place once China emerges as a regional power in the presence of Japan as an existing economic power and the significant issues involving Taiwan and the ASEAN countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam etc. However it is also argued that owing to the current position of China in the region both economically and militarily will not lead the country to violate regional stability by engaging itself into a military conflict. This paper emphasises the fact that rise of China power will be peaceful and viable both economically and militarily. It sheds light on the facts that endorse that China's intentions at least in the foreseeable future would only be directed towards economic well being and cooperation rather than engaging into any military conflicts with other countries. Rise Of China Power: Concerns In Asia-Pacific Countries The recent acceleration of Chinese progress on economic and military grounds has been raising profound concerns not only on the part of its rivals but also its non-rivals in the region. Asia Pacific as a whole is emerging as the most rapidly growing region in the world owing to the splendid economic development of Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Japan and China. However, the outstanding growth manifested by China during the past few decades has led the regional powers to consider it the most important contender of regional supremacy in the near future. Notably, China is not the only progressing country in the region. There happen to be several countries in the Asia Pacific the economies of which are growing at a rapid rate. In this scenario, the factors that are leading China as a rising superpower in the region appear to be the presence of a huge domestic market, central position in the region and China's passion to regain its historic influence in the region. Bernstein and Munro (1997, p19) also state that, "China's sheer size and inherent strength, its conception of itself as a centre of global civilization, and its eagerness to redeem centuries of humiliating weakness are propelling it toward Asian hegemony". As a matter of fact, Chinese rapid growth and its emergence on the political landscape of Asia Pacific as a powerful country happen to be something observed by everyone. Hence the question does not remain of whether or not China will be able to reach the position of regional superpower. Rather, it mostly concerns what would China actually be doing once it arrives at this position. As Gallagher (1994, p169) illuminates that, "this combination of rapid economic growth and increasing military strength has many, in Asia and elsewhere, wondering exactly what the Chinese intend to do with their newly acquired power". This not only suggests the pre-eminence of Chinese growth to the other countries in the region, but also connotes the strategic stance that China is expected to take in the pursuit of establishing its regional hegemony. The question concerning the impact of prospective Chinese rise in the region needs to be analysed in the perspective of the country's position and relationship with other countries in the Asia Pacific. A brief look at the existing regional scenario with respect to China reveals the constant ongoing heated issues with other countries such as Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. This basically tends to be the factor that leads the concerned countries to perceive the Chinese growing power in the region as threatening to their national security and sovereignty. These countries fear that any increase in Chinese influence in the region will lead the country to use its power to fulfil its strategic objectives, subjugating the interests of others. Gallagher (1994, p170) also argues that, "China's growing economic and military strength may tempt it to expand at the expense of its neighbours in Southeast Asia" The fact that China is not only progressing economically but also has been involved in the advancement of its military capabilities further aggravate the probability amongst the concerned countries that China is preparing itself to serve its interests by means of war. Bernstein and Munro (1997, p29) elucidate that "China is not becoming a powerful military power founded on a pitifully weak economy, but a powerful economy creating a credible military force". The combination of a strong economy and an inviolable military will not only brighten its chance for regional dominance but also very likely enable China to use its power against the countries that intervene in its interests. Most of the Chinese influence is expected on the part of the countries having issues with China over the South China Sea. Some Asian pacific countries such as Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia having claims over the Spratly Islands of the region perceive the growing Chinese military power as threatening to provoke any armed conflict concerning the control of these islands (Gallagher, 1994 p174). The importance of these islands lie in the fact that it contains significant energy reserves and happens to be a very important trade and export link for Asia Pacific countries with the rest of the world. Occupation of these islands would allow China to exercise influence on any country in the region. China's claim over these islands are considered as strong enough to lead the country towards engaging its military forces to accomplish its objectives. These ASEAN countries regard any attempts for development or modernisation of Chinese military as an alarm for future conflict. Given the intentions and relationship of China with respect to the countries having claims on Spratly islands, it is expected that more enhanced military capabilities will give China a sway over these countries, As Bernstein and Munro (1997, p30) point out that, "China's build-up of naval, air, and amphibious forces will enable it to seize and hold control of almost the entire South China Sea, now divided between Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines" If there is any country that considers the rising China power as lethal for its security and national sovereignty in the Asia Pacific region, it is none other than the Taiwan. A piece of land that is insignificant to China in terms of size and population, yet very important with regard to its economy and national prestige. China wants to see Taiwan as its vital part in any case. Taiwan happens to be concerned with China's rising influence and power in the Asia Pacific region because of the ongoing tautness in the relationship between the two countries. The "One China" or "one country two systems" policy that the Chinese promote enthusiastically does not go in the national interests of the Taiwanese people. They perceive China's strategy as threatening to their national sovereignty and independence in the long run. The Taiwanese refuse the Chinese desire to see Taiwan as its part in the future and reject to agree with the "one country two systems" policy (Qimao, 1996, p1057). Thus Taiwan remains greatly concerned with any economic and military progress in China. Besides Taiwan, there is another country that expects to confront great rivalry friction from China in the near future owing to its rapid economic and military development. Japan is the country that has been enjoying hegemony in the Asia for several decades. A constant rise of China power will enable it to leave Japan trailing with respect to military capabilities in particular. Roy (1994, p149) says that "while a developed, prosperous Chinese economy offers the region many potential benefits, it would also give China the capability to challenge Japan for domination of East Asia". The fact that Japanese rely greatly on American support debilitates any remarkable progress on the part of the country vis--vis military modernisation. Japan also confronts several regional issues in its plans for military development. The Asia Pacific region remains more concerned with any Japanese military rise rather than that of Chinese. The fact that region has already experienced deadly consequences of Japanese military power in the past obstructs Japanese way to further modernise its military capabilities. Roy (1994, pp155-156) adds that "there is a double standard in East Asia: A Chinese military build-up, while not welcomed, is acceptable; a Japanese defence build-up is not". While most of the countries in Asia Pacific regard Chinese rise as threatening, but the would still be more concerned if any enhancement in Japanese military power is expected. Most of the countries mentioned above take refuge in American support so as to contain China from taking any aggressive action against them. Japan tops the list of the countries strengthening its relationship with America for this purpose. Both America and Japan are concerned with the advancement of China as a regional and global superpower replacing both Japan and the United States in the future. Other countries such as Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand etc have toned up strategic ties with America in anticipation of an approaching China threat. This increasing tendency of these countries to seek American support has led the country to significantly intervene in the Asia Pacific region. Shambaugh (2000, p99) notes that "while Beijing professes that it will never seek to dominate or extend its hegemony over the Asia-Pacific region, China is certainly not comfortable with the current American-dominated regional security architecture". As China remains traditionally sceptical of American intentions, it considers American presence in the region as threatening for its regional goals. The above paragraphs elaborate the regional apprehensions with regard to future Chinese stance in relation to its economic and military advancement. Hence as Lieberthal (1995, p35) says, "one of the most important issues now confronting Asia is how an increasingly strong China will act in the region". It is not necessary that China will take an aggressive approach of exercising power in the Asia Pacific region. All these apprehensions may not necessarily come true given the future strategic position of China in the region. The rest of the paper emphasises the point that no matter how strongly the Chinese government desires, it will not go in the direction of a military action to resolve its issues with the East Asian countries at least in the foreseeable future. China's Rising Power As A Threat: Myth Or Reality What the whole region considers as threatening is that China will use its rising power to dominate other countries corrupting the peace and stability in the region. As China is emerging on the landscape of economic and military hegemony after a long period, its intentions are never clear with respect to its future stance. Given the fragile relationship China maintains with most of the countries in the region, particular over the Spratly islands with ASEAN countries, the reunification issue with Taiwan and the intense rivalry with Japan over the issue of regional dominance, it is expected that China might go hostile in the pursuit of achieving its objectives in the region. However, the fact that rising power of China rests mainly on its economic development, which is hardly possible without regional cooperation will never enable China to become aloof in the region. The first and foremost factor that will not let China to adopt an aggressive attitude across its boundaries is the expected international reaction thereon, in particular on the part of the United States. Gallagher (1994, p184) argues that "any major Chinese military action to clear its rivals out of the Spratly Islands is likely to cause a level of international protest second only to that which followed the Iraqi seizure of Kuwait". Any military action from China against Japan, Taiwan or ASEAN countries will provoke fierce response from America that may be in the form of military reaction or economic sanctions. China would never want such a reaction from international powers to hamper its impressive growth. The strengthening of economic relations with most of the countries in the region would obstruct any Chinese desire to use its military forces against these countries. The trade and investment links that are developing within the region with respect to China are bolstering the peaceful intentions of the Chinese government. Hence the ASEAN countries have realised that China will not be able to attain the status of economic superpower without regional cooperation and are seeking to develop strong economic links with the country. Gallagher (1994, p185) says that "apart from military and diplomatic maneuvers to block any threat from China, the ASEAN states are trying to deter any aggressive moves in their direction by fostering economic ties with the PRC". It is hardly possible for China to go in direction of conflicts with the ASEAN countries for the sake of islands that are simply insignificant on the world map, as the country would never be willing to cut off those heavily profitable trade and investment links with these countries. Also in the case of Taiwanese independence, the economic interdependency of Taiwan and China leads to the fact that the Chinese government will achieve the goal of reunification by means of inflicting great harm to its economic position. This is something undesirable for any country, which finds the foundation of its hegemony resting upon rapid economic growth. As for Japan, as long as the country maintains its strategic relationship with the United States, it would be difficult for China to engage itself with a military confrontation with Japan. The response in such a case would not be only from Japan, but also from America and its international allies. Christensen (1996, p43) remarks that, "America's presence in East Asia is only reassuring because it replaces not strengthens Japanese military forces". It is true that the presence of American military in Japan protects the country from any regional conflicts, yet it also hinders significant progress on the part of Japan exclusively for the development of its military capabilities. Albeit China is showing a remarkable progress with respect to its economy and living standards, yet it trails behind many of its regional rivals because of poverty, corruption and instability of the government. These factors although not likely hamper Chinese emergence as a regional power, yet pose significant threats to the country if it tries to engage into military action with any of the Asia Pacific countries. Roy (1994, p153) also propounds that, "China is still profoundly poor, and probably faces many setbacks en route to prosperity. Several problems threaten to prevent China's growth into an economic superpower". The ongoing domestic environment of China does not entail that the country regards it appropriate to use its power against its enemies in the region. Christensen (2001, p3) illuminates that China's priority in the East Asian region is more concerned of its security and economic development than the endeavour to overcome American power. What China perceives to be important for the coming few decades is to strengthen its position among the existing competitors in the region like Russia, Japan, and a unified Korea. More significantly, China seems to be willing to exercise ascendance over the Taiwanese domestic affairs. It is a fact that China can peacefully achieve its regional goals by the route of continued economic expansion. Hence, it is very unlikely that China will be involved in a military action against the Asian Pacific countries. Conclusion This paper stresses on the point that China's growth and emergence as a superpower will not lead to any regional friction and instability. As growth in China's power depends largely upon its economic advancement, its strategic objective within the current scenario would be to maintain its rapid economic growth and enhance its cooperation with other countries for this purpose. It will not go in the interest of Chinese power to engage itself in a military conflict with its neighbours because it will put a halt to economic growth in China also. Also the military capabilities of China, albeit growing fast are certainly not at all in correspondence with that of the international powers, especially the United States. Hence, China will very likely not go in the direction of an armed dispute with any other country. References Bernstein, Richard and Munro, Ross H., 'The Coming Conflict with America', Foreign Affairs, 76(2), March/April 1997, pp. 18-32 Christensen, Thomas, J., 'Chinese Realpolitik', Foreign Affairs, 75(5), September/October 1996, pp. 37-52 Christensen, Thomas, J., 'Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China's Rise and the Challenge for American Security', International Security, 25(4), Spring 2001, pp. 1-31 Gallagher, Michael G., 'China's Illusionary Threat To The South China Sea', International Security, 19(1), Summer 1994, pp. 169-194 Lieberthal, Kenneth, 'A New China Strategy', Foreign Affairs, 74(6), November/December 1995, pp. 35-49 Qimao, Chen, 'The Taiwan Strait Crisis: Its Crux and Solutions', Asian Survey, 36(11), November 1996, pp. 1055-1066 Roy, Denny, 'Hegemon On The Horizon China's Threat To East Asian Security', 19(1), International Security, Summer 1994, pp. 149-168 Shambaugh, David, 'Sino-American Strategic Relations: From Partners To Competitors', Survival, 42(1), Spring 2000, pp. 97-115 Read More