Jumping to Conclusion: An Investigation of the Jump to Conclusion Bias - Essay Example

? ‘Jumping to Conclusion An investigation of the jump to conclusion bias PROJECT PROPOSAL Introduction Various theoretical models have been designed that lay great emphasis on the lack of reasoning and jumping-to-conclusions (JTC) biases exhibited by people, especially clinical patients. However, the root causes behind it are still ambiguous and not clearly known (Lincoln et al., 2010). This refers to condition where people tend to skip the reasoning process and draw final opinion about something on basis of premature and incomplete information. Clinical patients suffering from anxiety and other psychological prejudices are more susceptible to being trapped in this phenomenon. On these grounds, I have proposed to carry out a research study which shall verify the hypothesis that significant proportion of people are vulnerable to tendency to jump to conclusions, further investigating the reasons for such partiality. Literature review a) Hypothesis Various studies have been conducted that support the thesis that people suffering from delusional disorders require less amount of information while taking hasty decisions (Fine et al., 2007). Experiments have been carried out using beads task, mostly concluding that 50%–60% of clinical patients only request for 1 or 2 beads to make the final call on the contrary to the other 20%–30% in healthier participants (Moritz and Woodward, 2005). Moreover, even psychosis-prone persons have occasionally demonstrated the JTC conditions when tested through beads experiments (Colbert & Peters, 2002). However, there have been varying views about causes of these symptoms and there is still an ongoing debate in this regard. Mostly researchers blame induced anxiety to be the root cause of increased state paranoia and JTC in majority of the cases. Past studies suggest that threat-related perceptions alongwith state anxiety are readily accepted by people who are more inclined to jump to conclusions. Therefore, most of the results indicate delusional disorders to be more closely correlated to JTC condition than schizophrenic effects (Peters et al., 2008). On the contrary, Hemsley suggested that irregularity of decision-making is a product of cognitive dysfunction that arises from schizophrenia (Hemsley, 2005). Another research shows that JTC is found mostly to be demonstrated by individuals that are suffering from psychosis (Broome et al., 2007) and also, as claimed by Van Dael, by people who are closely related or acquainted with such individuals (Van Dael et al., 2006). A study on reasoning explained that the normal state of reasoning involves accepting those taken-for-granted assumptions subconsciously that don’t occur to people explicitly and are considered by them to be unworthy of consideration. Thus, on basis of these, such individuals make erroneous judgments by skipping some essential intermediate steps of decision-making process. Masses tend to blindly rely on their cognitive skills to think before taking any critical steps and therefore fail to judge circumstances often. Various experiments have been conducted that required participants to consider all the available pieces of information when planning and analyzing given problem and to acknowledge the need for reasoning (Bach, 1984). Lastly, Freeman proposed that studies have not yet been able to draw a relationship between need for closure and JTC and further research is necessary to establish the underlying reasons for JTC bias (Freeman et al., 2008). b) Limitations Past researches carried out to test similar hypothesis have demonstrated various limitations in their methods and results generated. Firstly, the population utilized for experiments has been specific to subjective selection of population containing specific demographic attributes and therefore cannot be easily projected to general public. Secondly, most of the experiments claim that anxiety has been the primary reason for psychological and emotional conditions. However, it is much more complicated than a mere single justification and further detailed research is necessary to identify other critical causes of JTC bias. On the contrary, some experiments pay much less attention to impact of anxiety on human cognition especially studies that focus on clinical populations. Limited cognitive abilities are closely linked with the reasoning biases demonstrated by clinical participants, thereby attracting researchers’ consideration on other non-critical psychological conditions instead of anxiety. Thus, an optimal balanced approach is required during experimentation to keep an open mind for all possibilities, symptoms and potential causes (Lincoln et al., 2010). This paper attempts to bypass these limitations and produce more effective results. c) Contribution of current study Apart from circumventing the above limitation, this study offers a definitive research of potential JTC bias in non-clinical populations, contributing to the overall knowledge base in this field. Clinical populations have mainly been the focus of attention in majority of studies in the past. However, this paper lays more emphasis on non-clinical participants where probability of incidence appears to be much lower than in delusional clinical samples. Also, previous dissertations had less or no consideration for demographic differences and varying intellectual levels. With initial expectations that 10-20% of population shall exhibit reasoning bias, this paper impartially addresses proportion engaged in JTC cognitive conditions and social and individual symptoms that become cause of the same. Symptoms are expected to revolve around delusional disorders and cognitive limitations including states of depression and anxiety. In extreme cases, we also speculate that JTC would be correlated with irregular sensory deformations and hallucinations. To contribute more to this field, the conventional methods of bead tests have been modified with some variations in this study to generate more fruitful results. Methodology adopted a) Procedural details The experiment shall be based on a population of 90 students, volunteering for participation, belonging to fields of psychology and social sciences. Ages of these students will range between 19 years to 30 years, comprising 44% males and 56% females. The outcome measures used shall include Draws-To-Decision techniques to evaluate the request for drawing of number of fishes by participants prior to decision and JTC methodology where they reach decision on the basis of first few fishes only. These techniques are beneficial as they are continuous rather than an absolute direct measure such as dichotomization of variables (Garety et al., 2008). Testing approach for JTC will use a revamped and automated adaptation of the regular beads task alongwith help of literature developed by Woodward (Speechley et al., 2010). The experiment shall begin with an exhibit shown to participants containing 2 separate lakes, one filled with red fishes while the other with gray ones in opposing ratios such that 80% are red and 20% are gray fishes. Subsequently, a fish will be caught at a time from each of the two lakes and participants shall be comfortably sold the idea that the lakes have not been switched. Further, the experimenter shall read out the instructions from a monitor screen placed nearby, requesting them to indicate which lake does each fish belong to and every fish caught will be placed back in the same lake as participants observe. They will be given an option to request drawing out of as many fishes as they want to before reaching conclusive decisions based on their observations and perception. Of course, the aim would be to analyze how most of them will only need few fishes to decide and jump to conclusions. Only comprehension questions shall be pursued by experimenter from each participant. The experimenter shall tactically exhibit circumstances which will tempt in participants to believe that fishes belong to one particular lake. Participants will be encouraged to jot down their observations in writing so as to mitigate the risks associated with reliance on memory and also to maintain these records for later use when experimenter will be analyzing their short-sighted analysis and irregular cognitive processes. Entire process will be video-recorded and documented. b) Ethical implications There are various ethical compliance rules related to research norms and experimentation techniques, as prescribed by British Psychological Society. To duly abide by them, we shall conduct our experiment in unbiased and rational manner without preconceived notions. Also, any unfair practices, false claims and misrepresentation of data shall be fully avoided: Purely honest, true and fair approach shall be adopted with no stimulated responses from participants. During interacting with participants, any racial biases shall be avoided and cultural differences and needs for privacy shall be highly honored. All written consents shall be obtained from all participants prior to starting with experimentation and due competence shall be displayed during conducting study, taking full responsibility for any harm directly caused to any of the participants. All information collected shall be duly recorded and maintained, without breaching code of confidentiality. While referring to scholarly resources, full credit shall be given without any plagiarism of work. Finally, at the time of decision-making, professional behavior and proficiency shall be demonstrated to reach conclusive and most appropriate decisions (British Psychological Society, 2009). Conclusion This study is aimed to generate certain planned outcomes, including enhancement of knowledge in this field, achievement of concrete evidences that support our thesis and completion of a fair experiment that adds value to the overall research in this area. If this proposal is accepted, the experimentation shall begin in due time to draw effective and helpful conclusions. However, utmost care must be taken that participants are ready to cooperate and be candid in their responses since any fabrication shall defeat the purpose of this whole dissertation. The entire research is expected to take 8 days from the date of approval of proposal. Although, tons of studies have already been conducted in this field, this experiment is still expected to generate output that might be distinct from previous researches. Therefore, it is requested that due consideration is given to the goals that this study is projected to achieve and thereafter approval is granted on a timely basis in order to authorize us to initiate with the proceedings. References Bach, K. (1984). Default reasoning: Jumping to conclusions and knowing when to think twice. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly, 65(1), 37-58. British Psychological Society (2009). Ethics and standards – Code of ethics and conduct, extracted on July 1, 2013 from http://www.bps.org.uk/what-we-do/ethics-standards/ethics-standards Broome, M. R., Johns, L. C., Valli, I., Woolley, J. B., Tabraham, P., Brett, C., & McGuire, P. K. (2007). Delusion formation and reasoning biases in those at clinical high risk for psychosis. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 191(51), s38-s42. Colbert, S. M., & Peters, E. R. (2002). Need for closure and jumping-to-conclusions in delusion-prone individuals. The Journal of nervous and mental disease, 190(1), 27-31. Fine, C., Gardner, M., Craigie, J., & Gold, I. (2007). Hopping, skipping or jumping to conclusions? Clarifying the role of the JTC bias in delusions. Cognitive Neuropsychiatry, 12(1), 46-77. Freeman, D., Pugh, K., & Garety, P. (2008). Jumping to conclusions and paranoid ideation in the general population. Schizophrenia research, 102(1), 254-260. Garety, P., Freeman, D. & So, S. H. W. (2008). Impact of state anxiety on the jumping to conclusions delusion bias. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 42(10), 879-886. Hemsley, D.R., 2005. The schizophrenic experience: taken out of context? Schizophrenia Bulletin 31, 43–53. Lincoln, T. M., Lange, J., Burau, J., Exner, C., & Moritz, S. (2010). The effect of state anxiety on paranoid ideation and jumping to conclusions. An experimental investigation. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 36(6), 1140-1148. Moritz, S., & Woodward, T. S. (2005). Jumping to conclusions in delusional and non?delusional schizophrenic patients. British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 44(2), 193-207. Peters, E. R., Thornton, P., Siksou, L., Linney, Y., & MacCabe, J. H. (2008). Specificity of the jump?to?conclusions bias in deluded patients. British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 47(2), 239-244. Speechley, W. J., Whitman, J. C., & Woodward, T. S. (2010). Hyper-salience of matches between evidence and hypothesis underlies the association between delusions and jumping to conclusions in schizophrenia. J Psychiatric Neuroscience. Van Dael, F., Versmissen, D., Janssen, I., Myin-Germeys, I., van Os, J., & Krabbendam, L. (2006). Data gathering: biased in psychosis? Schizophrenia Bulletin, 32(2), 341-351. Read More