New States of Eurasia: Emerging Issues of Politica and Security - Case Study Example

THE POST-SOVIET STATES OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA by Course Professor Institution City and state Date NЕW STАTЕS ОF ЕURАSIА: ЕMЕRGING ISSUЕS ОF РОLITIСS & SЕСURITY The post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia are often referred to as an ‘arc of crisis’ or the ‘Eurasian Balkans’. What characteristics make these territories conflict-prone, and are they bound to remain unstable indefinitely? Introduction The post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia are made up of countries that include Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in South Caucasus and Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in Central Asia. These states collectively have been known to be prone to conflict owing to a number of reasons that this paper is going to be explored in depth. In the period preceding the early nineties, the countries making up the South Caucasus and Central Asia were played a minimal role if not an insignificant role in international affairs and as such, were not the center of any attention. These countries during that time were states of the Soviet Union. It is important to note that these countries in their previous capacity as Soviet Union republics did not play a significant role in the Cold War association between the USSR and the United States of America nor did they feature in the relationship between the Soviet Union and the key regional powers, which included Iran, Turkey, and China. However, the termination of the Soviet Union in the 1990s made a difference in the significance of these states. Thomas (2013) notes that with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the dynamics of the countries in Central Asia and South Caucasus underwent a change pitting these states in positions that have seen then labeled the ‘arc of crises in the world today. It is therefore vital to examine and evaluate the characteristics that make these territories prone to conflict and if the instability these states face is bound to last forever or if there is hope of resolving the factors that contribute to the instability. Characteristics That Make the Territories Conflict-Prone Energy Resources and Radical Religious Groups The dissolution of the Soviet Union happened at the same time when energy resources were rediscovered in the Caspian Sea (Global Research., 2016). With the rediscovery of these resources, many global energy companies became attracted to the region including companies from the United States of America. Energy resources and most especially oil has been the source of major tensions in the world since time immemorial. The attractiveness level of a region such as the Caspian Basin grows tenfold with various conglomerates trying to gain access and benefit from the resources. In this way, Gawel et al. (2007) observes that the region became a center of tension especially in light of the relations between Russia and the United States. South Caucasus and Central Asia naturally became conflict ones as a consequent this. The magnitude of conflict in the region saw a series of events that would continue to make the region prone to conflict. The countries constituting Central Asia and South Caucasus saw a radical geopolitical shift that resulted in various unrests and wars that further continued to destabilize the region. Among the major conflicts that contributed to the instability of the region included the civil war in Tajikistan, conflicts of succession in South Caucasus and clashes in Ferghana valley among others (Brookings.edu., 2016). With mounting conflicts came wavering economic reforms and political reforms that continued to escalate the problems in the region. Instability affected the regions’ progress and created myriad social problems that all laid the foundation for the emergence of radical groups, development of militant systems and organizations such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the subversion of global Islamic networks among other activities associated with conflict and instability (Andrianopoulos, 2003). The emergence of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is one of the major traits that have contributed to the instability seen in the region. The movement started by seeking to overthrow the government and continued their activities by expanding their ambitions over time. The movement’s main agenda that is seeking the creation of an Islamic state in Central Asia has contributed to the region’s propensity for conflict. The movement’s later action of joining forces with other radical groups has also contributed majorly to the conflict experienced in the region. According to Forsythe (1996), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan joined their efforts with the Taliban and expanded radicalism to the region. Border Disputes The post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia are characterized by numerous and endless border disputes (Peacekeeper.ru., 2016). Many people might consider the Caucasia and Central Asia as on entity but in reality the two regions are not a single unit even though they share a geographic domain and are tied together through historical links such as their previous association with the Soviet Union. In the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Coene (2016) notes that the independence of the states within the region has undergone changes that has contributed to the escalation of tensions and conflict within the region. Chief among these changes is the border problem. Over the years, the states in Central Asia and the Caucasus have experience political divisions that have continued to progress and fester. The borders that the states within the region have were inherited from the Soviet Union. According to Malek (2013), the creation of these borders were based on the divide and rule principle that enabled the Soviet Union to keep a tight control over the countries in the region. With the Soviet Union no longer in charge, border disputes have emerged and developed to an extent that they keep fuelling the tension in the already fragile region. The dissolution of the Soviet Union according to Phillips (2004) means that there is no longer someone to arbitrate between or among the states and as such, the borders have ceased having meaning. This has resulted in issues of contested boundaries that have consequently led to the breaking of ethnic groups in addition to broken trade relations, routes, and communication among these states. The contests of boundaries have additionally contributed to the break in political and economic interdependencies of the states in Central Asia and South Caucasus. Porous Borders The borders in the states in the post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia have remained porous thus allowing for a lucrative illicit trade in items that continue to fuel the conflict and tension experienced in the region. The porosity of the borders has created and sustained illicit trade in items such as weapons that are being smuggled from Afghanistan in addition to drugs and also the rise of the spread in infectious diseases that continue to contribute to the region’s instability. For instance, during the 1990s Central Asia became the main channel for the trafficking of heroin, which came from Afghanistan and found its way into Russia and onwards to Western and Eastern Europe (Roy, 2007). The result was a major problem of intravenous drug use in Ukraine and Russia. This also gave rise to a major disaster in public health that is now potentially becoming a catastrophic of a huge magnitude especially with the fast transmission of HIV/AIDS. Broad Regional Complexity The complexity of the extensive regional context of the region has become especially difficult to manage. According to Peimani (2002), the dissolution of the Soviet Union has seen to it that the states are in the middle of various regions that interlock such as Eurasia, Russia, and Asia in general. This means that the states within Central Asia and South Caucasus have become a cushioning area as well as a transit route among the interlocking regions. In this way, there is also a spread of religious and ethnic groups across these regions. For instance, Iran, Turkey, Russia, Afghanistan, and China all share such groups with the states of South Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, in viewing the political and economic environment as well as external security of South Caucasus and Central Asia, all the other interlocking states and neighboring countries have to be put in consideration as elements with an effect on the future of the region (Aslund, 2013). In the years that have followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the neighboring states have been involved in the region in various capacities such as economically, political and in military. For instance China especially prioritized its relations with Central Asia in the 1990s in order to nurture the stability and development of their western province of Xinjiang. Beijing considers Central Asia and South Caucasus as potential markets and as an energy and natural resources source in addition to acting as a communication link to the Middle East. In the same breath, Japan is now considered the largest donor country to Central Asia since they also consider the region a raw materials source, a potential market and a link to the Middle East. Cornell (1999) notes that, the involvement of these other states in Central Asia and South Caucasus has an impact on the regions stability and environment. Independence and developmental hitches With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the states in Central Asia and South Caucasus gained their independence. However, with independence comes numerous problems since independence means that a country has to learn to stand on its own. These states have been characterized by the various hitches experienced as a result of independence. The end of Soviet Union’s hold on the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus left the countries with no development plans, policies, or strategies on which to fall back on (Nations and Powers, 2001). Their efforts at attempting to function on their own have been marred by challenges that have made them prone to conflict. For instance, the states Central Asia especially were among the least developed and poorest in the Soviet Union. In this way, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, these states had to start from nothing in their development efforts. Losing the control and governing of the Soviet Union ensured that such states had no footing on their own. The loss of the Soviet Union ensured that they also lost vital subsidies that enabled them to operate in a functional manner for example budgetary subsidies, subsidies for households, and enterprises among others. In losing the Soviet Union, these states also lost other vital developmental factors such as transportation routes, markets for products and most significant, the loss of communication to the world outside since the Soviet Capital filtered most of communication to the outside world. The World Bank estimated that the states of Central Asia as a consequent of the mentioned losses saw an economic decline of between 20 to 60 percent GDP between 1990 to 1996. Economic Reforms The independence that came with the dissolution of the Soviet Union as noted came with difficulties especially in the development aspect. To counter this and in efforts attempting to stabilize and restore the states, most of these states are characterized by economic reforms that have continued to burden the countries instead of offering reprieve. The reforms saw the countries saddled with debts accrued as a consequent of extensive borrowing from global financial organizations. In this manner, most states through the 1990s reforms accrued unsustainable and high debts that have continued to place a burden on stability and progress. For instance, Moore (2001) observes that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have especially been heavily affected due to their landlocked nature with more than 80 percent of their populations having fallen below the poverty line currently. With such a magnitude in people living below the poverty line, these countries are now among the poorest countries in the world. The situation is similar for the states of South Caucasus where post-independence has seen the states face economic problems. Regional conflicts has multiplied and compounded the economic problems of these states with multitudes of internally displaced people. Political Instability Political instability is one of the main characteristics that make the post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia prone to conflict. These regions have been marred by political problems that can be said to be the main contributing factor to all the problems of the region. Lack of democracy has seen leadership problems and developmental problems escalate from the time the Soviet Union was terminated. According to Nixey (2012), democracy is not something that the political regimes in these states are willing to embrace and as such, there have been numerous problems related to for instance, the transfer of power. Most of the states in these states have kept the authoritarian style of leadership that infringes on the rights of the majority and gives no recognition to the needs of the people. Menon (2003) postulates succession problems have escalated the tension in these countries making them prone to conflict. The political health of these states are characterized by constant internal wars that continue to degenerate the rate of progress and development. Elections are filled with irregularities, policies and government strategies in majority of the countries infringe on social and economic development. It is important to note the significant role that political instability plays in the tensions and conflict experienced in the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus. Political instability has created an environment that has encouraged the emergence of radical religious and ethnic groups (Onis, 2001). The activities of the radical groups and organizations have often spilled over thereby creating interstate conflict that has become difficult to manage over time. Political leaders whose interests are directed more at power, personal benefit and greed have managed to frustrate the people to the extent that they turn to fundamentalism as a way of retaliation. Such radical religious and ethnic organizations have their activities backed by the activities facilitated by the illicit trade, which is a consequence of porous borders. In this respect, such groups are able to procure illicit weapons and rain terror both internally and externally with little regard to stability. The governments in retaliation also fuel such tensions further. According to Oliker et al. (2003), political instability has resulted in leaders who have no desire to communicate national ideals to the people. Leaders of these states have no interest in fostering development, progress, and peace. Political activities are not directed at the development of national identities in as much as most of the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus are undergoing an identity crisis that came with being under the control of the Soviet Union. The political instability in the states of the region are characterized by a lack of legitimate opposition to the governments, lack of visionary leaders interested in inspiring positive change, lack of change in the government systems and non-progressive policies among other factors (Aslund, 2013). The Future of the post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia In as much as the post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia have often been referred to as an “arc of crisis” due to the characteristics mentioned, it is important to consider the future and if they are bound to remain unstable indefinitely. The instability experienced by the states in the region can be ascribed to various factors chief among them being the link between these states and the Soviet Union. The period after the dissolution of the Soviet Union has been with challenges for these states but with continued efforts and global interventions, the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus are experiencing major changes in various fronts and as such, they are not predestined for indefinite instability. Suny (2006) point to the fact that change and progress may be slow but indications point to better prospects in the future. The economic difficulties of post-independence and regional conflicts have resulted in major migrations from these countries with hundreds of thousands of people migrating to other regions and to Russia. The estimates of experts note that more than a million people may have migrated from Armenia in the last decade according to Fierman (2012). This might look like a bad thing but it has a positive in the sense that the population of people that have left for other countries play a significant role in the economic growth of these states. Remittances from the diaspora into these states contribute to the strengthening of the economy. For instance, the annual remittance in Armenia from migrants range between 700 million to a billion dollars, which could go a long way in stabilizing the ailing economy of these states and bringing some semblance of stability in the long run. The instability and tensions experienced in these two regions according to Cornell (2006), has attracted the attention of the world and with it there are global efforts directed at restoring normalcy to the regions. International attention on these two regions has ensured that there is a promise of help. For instance, the promise of help by the United States to the frontline states which include Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia and Tajikistan through efforts directed at fighting terrorism. Jackson (2005) notes that the international involvement is bound to make a difference especially in helping the states in the two regions eliminate conflict in the future. However, it is also important to note that as much as global engagement will go a long way in restoring peace and stability in the region, most of the issues the two regions face will require interstate cooperation if any progress is to be achieved (Berman, 2004). However, the states in the two region definitely will gain considerable benefit from the international attention and involvement since majority of the issues they are experienced cannot be solved without outside help. This involvement will be of help in various pertinent aspects such as opening up the region to the outside world something that has been majorly missing and restricting the development and progress of these states. Help or any kind of assistance from international quarters is bound to be subject to agreements that have to be adhered to and observed (Aydın, 2000). By being answerable to international organizations through agreements and treaties, the states in these two regions will work towards restoring stability and order since they will no longer be subject to their own perils. The orientation of Central Asia and South Caucasus is significant in the sense that they have a great effect on the planning, security and power of the neighboring states (Fas.org., 2016). These neighboring states such as China, Russia, Turkey, and the United states among others have already demonstrated the significance of the two regions through their activities. Their strategic actions in these regions have an impact on the geopolitical alignments of the entire region. The past decade has seen the involvement of various states such as Japan, Korea and China among other. The fact that these countries see the two regions as potential market and a source of raw materials, natural resources, and energy in addition to a communication link to the Middle East implies that efforts made to stabilize the two regions are done in manner that is geared towards success and long-term stability. In this way, Hughes and Sasse (2002) conclude that the two regions will definitely not remain unstable forever since they are strategic to the progress of other interested and affiliated countries. Japan has been noted as the largest donor country to Central Asia which means that if they are investing in the region, they are interested in aiding stability efforts and pursing long term success. Such involvement and efforts geared towards helping the two regions regain stability are bound to have a positive effect on a wide scale. Economic growth will thus deal with the poverty, inequality, and social problems experienced by these regions (Zurcher, 2007). In addition, international engagement will also help the political atmosphere in these regions since they will be required to ascribe to international standards of governance. Such efforts will force leaders and the political regimes to change their act and contribute to the political reform in the region. Conclusion The stability of the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus is threatened by the extreme fragile nature of domestic atmosphere, which is marred by internal as well as external tensions. However, the states in the two regions will change even if change will be slow in coming. Changing systems that have been stagnant for a while will not happen overnight but they will happen either way. Progress has already been made in various states with some states embracing progressive practices. It is important to note that independence has not been very forthcoming or progressive for the states in these two regions but they are working towards a brighter future. In as much as every state has its unique challenges, they all share some common challenges that can be mitigated through international involvement. The transition from Soviet control to autonomy has been hard and the states in these two regions still hold on to aspects from the time when they were under the control of the Soviet Union. The tensions, conflict and instability that characterizes the two regions has attracted international attention, which is a good thing since international involvement will ensure that assistance is given to the states in efforts to restore stability, progress, and development. List of References Andrianopoulos, A., 2003. 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