Irans Nuclear Threat and Its Consequences to UAE - Literature review Example

Iran’s Nuclear Threat and Its Consequences to UAE Introduction Nuclear power plants produce several million times more energy compared to fossil fuel and provide cost-effective carbon-free electricity . However, although nuclear power is an economical source of electricity, it is also a source of potentially hazardous radiation and radioactive nuclear waste that can severely damage human reproductive cells . Accidental leak such as the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster for instance resulted to birth defects, high incidence of cancer, and other serious tissue damage in bone marrow, thyroid gland, and reproductive organs . Moreover, usable fissile material from nuclear power reactors can use to fabricate nuclear explosive devices . Detonation of nuclear weapon according to and result to severe health and environmental damage caused by intense burst of nuclear radiation, blast waves, thermal pulse, neutrons, x and gamma rays, particulate radiation, EMP or electromagnetic pulse, and ionization of the upper atmosphere. Electricity generation or weaponry, the existence of nuclear power plants and associated facilities in Iran is a threat to the security and ecology of nearby Gulf states particularly those that are near Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant operating along the coast of the Persian Gulf. The following discusses Iran’s nuclear capability, UAE’s concern over Iran’s increasing nuclear capability, and consequences of Iran’s ambitious nuclear program. Iran’s Nuclear Capability Iran’s nuclear program according to started in the 1950s and construction of its first U.S.-supplied research reactor in Tehran was completed in 1960. Initially, the Iranian nuclear program generally intends to construct 10-20 nuclear reactors in order to generate 20,000 megawatts of nuclear power by 1994. In fact, Iran signed the NPT or Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1968 and submitted a draft resolution to the UN General Assembly in 1974 calling for establishment of nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East . Construction of light-water nuclear power reactor in Bushehr was started by Siemens (a German company) in 1974 but was halted in 1979 because of the Iran revolution . However, the nuclear program according to was revived in 1982 and construction of the Bushehr light water reactors was continued by a Russian contractor in 1995. Suspicion over Iran’s ambitious nuclear program began in 2002 when Iran started its secret uranium enrichment program that according to added some military dimension to the program. For instance, Iran used thousands of gas centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium suitable for producing nuclear weapons . Its heavy-water-reactor in Arak and Natanz produces plutonium that is more suitable for fabricating plutonium nuclear weapon than reactor fuel . In 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA reports suggest that Iran undertaken significant efforts to gain knowledge of HEU (highly enriched uranium) weaponry and can produce nuclear weapons within a year if they decide to do so . However, Iran consistently denied the allegations and insisting that it has no such nuclear weapon program mainly because it is not interested in nuclear weapons . According to , Iran insist that its nuclear reactors are for electric power generation despite clandestine development of uranium to nuclear fuel conversion facilities and Pakistani court’s decision that A.Q. Khan, a Pakistani nuclear scientist, is guilty of helping Iran construct its nuclear enrichment facility and supply nuclear weapons technology. From a technical perspective, the potential for Iran to acquire nuclear weapon can be determined by two important factors such its ability to produce to adequate quantities of usable weapon-grade uranium or plutonium fissile material and design and fabricate nuclear weapon from this material . The first factor according to was already confirmed in the IAEA reports but there is no evidence that Iran’s clandestine nuclear facilities ever produced such material or presence of undeclared stocks of nuclear weapons and usable fissile materials. Similarly, since IAEA report suggest that Iran at this point is incapable of fissile-material production, it will certainly take some more years before it can actually fabricate nuclear weapons . UAE’s Concern Over Iran’s Nuclear Threat UAE leaders according to , are mostly apprehensive over the potential shift in the balance of power in the Gulf region particularly when Iran actually use its nuclear weapons against its enemy. Some of the primary concerns explained include Iran’s inability to safely operate advanced nuclear facilities or rapidly respond to nuclear accident, and UAE’s vulnerability to deadly radioactive materials in case Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr in the coast of the Persian Gulf leaks. Moreover, Iran’s ambitious nuclear programs and weapons can significantly affect UAE’s image as major global trading centre and tourist destination . Moreover, some UAE officials expressed their concern with the increasing nuclear capability of Iran because it will be more aggressive in dealing with disputed Abu Musa and Tunb Islands . For instance, although UAE is eager to peacefully resolve the dispute and brought the case to the International Court of Justice in 2007, Iran appears reluctant to pursue a diplomatic solution and instead maintain and further strengthen its military control on Abu Musa . UAE’s ambassador to the United States Yousefl Al-Otaiba expressed the level of UAE’s concern in a 2010 Atlantic Magazine interview where he was quoted saying “Our military, who has existed for the past forty years, wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian threat” . This high level of anxiety over Iran’s nuclear capability was already evidenced in UAE’s upgrading of its naval forces in the past years, strong criticism of Iran’s incompetence in handling nuclear emergency and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s (Iran president from 2005 to 2013) open and aggressive pursuit of Iran’s nuclear program . UAE leaders according to generally perceived Iran’s nuclear program with military intent mainly because it entertains hegemonic aspirations in the Gulf similar to Iraq and has territorial disputes with UAE. Consequences of Iran’s Nuclear Threat UAE’s anxiety over Iran’s growing nuclear capability, clandestine nuclear facilities, and potential to fabricate and use nuclear weapons against its enemy led to its own nuclear program in 2008. UAE and the Bush Administration signed a memorandum of understanding and bilateral agreement regarding UAE’s proposed program to build civilian nuclear power plants to meet one-third of the country’s electricity needs by 2020 . In December 2009 according to , UAE signed a $40 billion cooperation contract with Korea that include design, engineering, erection, and supply of nuclear fuel rods. Scheduled to operate in 2017, the first UAE nuclear power plant will have 4 APR 1400 type reactors capable of producing 1,400MW to 1,600MW each. Similar to Iran, UAE’s nuclear program is also controversial as its reasons for launching a nuclear program was weak and questioned by opponents of nuclear energy who are concern over nuclear waste, operational safety, and proliferation of nuclear weapons . According to UAE’s reasons for launching a relatively ambitious nuclear program concealed its increasing anxiety over Iran’s nuclear threat and instead enumerated a number of environmental concerns including volatility of oil and gas prices and debatable anticipated shortfall of existing energy sources that may be covered by nuclear energy . However, since UAE perceived Iran’s nuclear threat more deeply compared to other Gulf states, harbor resentment over Iran’s occupation of Abu Musa and Lesser Tunbs Islands, and repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to spend top dollar in sophisticated defense systems, its true intention in launching a nuclear program will be constantly in doubt . For instance, reasons for UAE’s nuclear program may be more convincing if UAE admitted that it is a warning to Iran not to cross the nuclear threshold, a foundation for nuclear weapon acquisition in case Iran start to fabricate its own , and an effective deterrent to Iran’s attack . Another consequence of Iran’s nuclear threat is the changing military balance in the Gulf and Middle East. For instance, although Iran as discussed earlier is still far from becoming a meaningful nuclear power, its neighbors like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and so on eventually consider development of nuclear energy sources of their own and acquire more sophisticated missile defense system . Moreover, in terms of military balance in the Gulf and Middle East, Iran’s nuclear threat according to made preventive war and nuclear capability as important military options in order to destroy Iran. Another important implication of Iran’s increasing nuclear capability is the difficulty of maintaining stability and peace in a region where several states with varying ideologies and ambitions possess nuclear capability . For instance, UAE’s military build-up and nuclear capability not only contribute to the militarization and proliferation of advanced weapons in the Middle East but also increases the chances of unintentional conflict . Similar to Iran, Saudi Arabia had a long-standing border dispute with UAE regarding a small corridor of land between UAE and Qatar where the Saudi controlled Shaybah oil field is located. Since the stakes involved in this dispute according to is more than the size of land but oil revenues from 550,000 barrels of oil per day production of Shaybah oil field, the conflict may be elevated if the two nuclear capable states make a careless decision. Conclusion Iran’s nuclear threat at this point appears overstated because there is no evidence that its nuclear facilities did produced nuclear weapons. However, Iran’s possession of nuclear reactors and clandestine uranium-enrichment facilities capable of producing weapon-grade fissile material is more than enough to discomfort its neighboring states. As demonstrated in UAE, anxiety over Iran’s nuclear threat led to another ambitious nuclear program with similar modest intention of generating clean and adequate electricity despite resentment over Abu Musa and Tunbs Islands, public criticism of Iran’s nuclear program, and high level of anxiety over a neighboring nuclear power with hegemonic aspiration. Iran’s nuclear threat significantly effects UAE’s political decision and views over nuclear-free zone Middle East because it turns the country into another nuclear threat. The consequences of Iran’s nuclear threat is widespread as other neighboring states including Saudi Arabia and Turkey eventually decided to develop nuclear energy sources and made preventive war and nuclear capability as an important military option. Moreover, the nuclear threat made maintenance of stability and peace in the Gulf region more difficult as some states with differing ideologies, ambitions, and long-standing border dispute are now developing their own foundation for acquiring nuclear weapons. Another important implication of Iran’s increasing nuclear capability is the difficulty of maintaining stability and peace in a region where several states with varying ideologies and ambitions possess nuclear capability . References Chevrier, M. I. (2012). Arms Control Policy: A Guide to the Issues, Praeger.USA Cordesman, A. H., Al-Rodhan, K. R., Strategic, C. f. & Studies, I. (2006). 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