Population Demographic Imbalance and Security Threats to UAE - Research Paper Example

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC IMBALANCE AND SECURITY THREATS TO UAE Political Science Introduction This research paper looks at thesecurity threats posed by the demographic imbalance in the United Arab Emirates. In the literature review, the thesis statement, methodology, discussion and conclusion are briefly highlighted. These include the political, economic and military security threats. The paper also discusses the demographic composition of the United Arab Emirates by highlighting population composition by age, population size, population growth trends, and population transition indicators. Literature Review Research Question: Does demographic imbalance in the UAE pose security threats to the population? This research paper seeks to provide an in-depth analysis of the groups reflecting the citizens and immigrants from different nationalities, and how the imbalance within each group may pose a threat in the UAE. It also attempts to critically examine different threats with respect to other case studies of population imbalances, finding out and evaluating their causes in different parts of the world and how they have been dealt with in other nations as seen in the paper. Abstract The federation of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is being faced with a canopy of political, economic and military security threats especially in the last decade as a result of population imbalance in the federation. There are different groups of people living within from different nations, and this has its challenges. For instance, there are cultural, religious and ideological disparities that arise as a result of this problem of population variation. The Federation does is therefore faced with myriad of challenges ranging from overwhelmingly huge debts, planned domestic opposition or cases of economic collapses. A wide scope of literature search and study was conducted in this paper. The major references for that were reviewed include online books, journals and the internet. Review of the Literature Economic threats: There is a lack rivalry among the Emirates since the United States guarantees the security of the Federation. However, the United Arab Emirates still contends with the similar challenges that have been observed in the Middle East1. Such challenges include tremendous population growth rate, deficiency in economic diversification, inadequate water supplies, low prices of oil and overdependence on imported labor. Any political and military tilting in the federation will pose unprecedented challenges in the economy especially in the Southern Gulf. Political threats: There is another dimension in the woes of the UAE, and this is whether the federation will uphold its unity after the demise of the president and charismatic leader Mr. Zayid Shaykh2. In addition, the major security threat which is Iran cannot be deterred even if the federation’s military combine forces with the GCC. The changing rhetoric with regards to the imbalance motivated this research. Several decades ago, the immigration process was deemed as a threat to UAE’s cultural and social homogeneity. Currently, the rhetoric has been shifted; the concern about cultural and social homogeneity was almost eradicated through the introduction of ideas like cosmopolitanism. UAE government aims to transform some of its cities into megacities, providing space for people from different backgrounds to live with each other peacefully. Yet, debates on naturalization remain of high sensitivity. In regard to citizenship, the UAE is not as flexible as other states like Canada. Given that there is a changing rhetoric, it is important to analyze the political and economic implications of demographic imbalance. Importance and relevance of the research question There is versatility when it comes to the economic potential of the southern gulf and this can unprecedentedly spur the growth of the region. This makes the region a better place to venture in to especially trade-wise. It also attracts foreign investment due to its strategic location and this is the reason for the versatility of its population especially as a result of immigration. Conclusion Economically speaking, the federation of the United Arab Emirates does not face any looming economic collapse or invasion. However, reforms in the society and development of integrated and collective security mechanisms must be undertaken by the federation in liaison with the nations allied to the federation with the view of maintaining future security. In the event that domestic challenges and security are not addressed by the federation soon, the problems will cumulatively pile up and become critical similar to the neighbors. Demographic composition of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The demographic composition and trends of the United Arab Emirates are discussed below. 1. Population trends a) Population size of the UAE The size of the population of the United States Emirates has gradually increased from 1 million to over 8 million people between the years 1980 to 2010. Demographically, projections show that this trend will even double to almost 16 million by the year 2050. The table below depicts the projection of the United Arab Emirates population size by sex between the year 1980 and the year 2050. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects The trend in population growth in the United Arab Emirates The United Arab Emirates population growth rate was 5.87 % between the year 1985 and the year 1990. However, there was a decrease in this trend as was witnessed between the year 1995 and 2000 to 5.09 %. Fortunately, a growth of up to 14.21 % was registered between the year 2005 and the year 2010. Projections preempt that the population growth rate between the year 2045 and 2050 will significantly decline to 0.84%. The table below depicts the projection of the United Arab Emirates population growth rate between the year 1980 and the year 2050. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2 United Arab Emirates Demographic transition indicators a) United Arab Emirates mortality transition i) Life expectancy The life expectancy of the United Arab Emirates at birth increased tremendously to 7.2 years in the period 2005 to 2010 compared to the period 1980 to 1985. It increased to 75.9 years from 68.7 years. It is projected that this trend will increase to 82.7 years in the period 2045 and 2050. The table below shows the United Arab Emirates life expectancy at birth between the year 1980 and the year 2050. Source United Nations, World Population Prospects ii) United Arab Emirates mortality rate among the infants In the period 1980 to 1985, the infant mortality rate was 29.6 deaths for every a thousand live infant births in the United Arab Emirates. However, this rate decreased to 6.9 deaths for every a thousand live infant births in the period 2005 to 2010. It is expected that this downward trend will continue in the period 2045 to 2050 at 2.4 deaths for every a thousand live infant births3. The table below summarizes the projection of the United Arab Emirates infant mortality rate in the period 1980 to 2050. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects iii) Mortality rate of under-five The mortality rate of children under the age of five years in the period 1995 to 2000 was 14 deaths in every a thousand live births. However, this rate declined in the year 2010 to 8 deaths in every a thousand live births. The table below summarizes the projected trend of mortality rates among under-five of age between the year 1980 and 2050. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects iv) Maternal mortality The ratio of the United Arab Emirates maternal mortality in the year 1990 was estimated to be 24 deaths in every 100000 live births. This trend tremendously declined to 12 deaths in every 100000 live births. The figure below summarizes this trend in the period 1990 to 2013 Source: World Health Statistics The United Arab Emirates fertility transition i) Fertility rate In the period 1980 to 1985, the fertility rate among women was estimated at 5.23 babies for every woman. However, there was a decline in the period 2000 to 2005 to 2.4 babies for every woman. In the period 2005 to 2010, there was a further decline to 1.97 babies for every woman with a replacement fertility level of 2.1. It is estimated that this declining trend will continue in the period 2030 to 2035 to 1.6 babies for every woman before it begins to increase to 1.64 in the period 2045 to 2050. The table below summarizes this trend from 1980 to 2050. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects ii) The contraceptive trends The rate of contraceptive prevalence in the United Arab Emirates among married women or sexually active women was approximated at 45.7% in the year 2010. An increase in this rate was estimated at 47.5% in the year 2012. By the year 2015 the rate of contraceptive prevalence among women was projected at 50.3. b) United Arab Emirates migration transition i) Internal migration In the year 1980, the number of people within urban settlement was at 80.7%. However, in 1995 this number declined to 78.3%. Later on an increase was witnessed in the year 2010 to 84%. Further increase is projected up to the year 2050 as summarized in the table below. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects ii) International migration In the year 2013, about 7.8 million international migrants were anticipated to live in the United Arab Emirates and this is an equivalent of 83.75% of the whole population. About 25.26% of this number constitutes female migrants. In the period 1990 to 2000, the migrant stock rate of change annually was 6.27%. An increase of up to 10.95 was seen in the period 2000 to 2010. Further projections indicate that this rate will decrease to 2.25 during the period 2010 to 2013. A summary of these projections is shown in the table below. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospect References Top of FormTop of Form Abdulla, Abdulkhaleq. "UAEs Demographic Imbalance." Gulfnews, April 14, 2007. Accessed March 2, 2015. http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/uae-s-demographic-imbalance-1.172314. Gulfnews magazine article addresses UAE government reactions to the demographic imbalance. Dr. Jamal AlSuwaidi, an interviewed official, suggested that the UAE has lost the battle against the demographic imbalance and showed his avocation to coexistence strategies. The article is intriguing because Mr. Jamal provides a controversial suggestion of UAE nationals sharing power with expatriates as the only way for a durable solution. Smallman, Shawn, and Kimberly Brown. "Security." In Introduction to International and Global Studies, 64-66. North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 2011. The Chapter on security discusses security threats to modern nation states generally. However, the chapter has a section dedicated to demographic security threats that are going to be of utmost benefit for my research. Alsuwaidi, Jamal. From Tribe to Facebook : The Transformation Role of Social Networks. 4th ed. Al Ain: ECSSR, 2014. The book discusses the changes Emirati society underwent and addresses the transformation from a tribalistic society into modernity. This source is relevant for the changing rhetoric regarding the demographic imbalance as the UAE becomes more integrated into the globalized world. Urdal, Henrik. "People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited." Journal of Peace Research 42 (2005). Accessed March 4, 2015. https://www.kent.ac.uk/politics/undergraduates/resubmissionsaug10/po621/0910/urdal.pdf. This journal article discusses the possible security threats generally. It will be beneficial to get case studies and apply them to the UAE. Garnham, David. UAE Security: Proposals for the Coming Decade. Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.: The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 1997. A collection of solutions addressing the demographic imbalance. This literature will be beneficial in order to trace back the early solutions to the problem of demographic. It will help observe how the sources have changed in almost two decades. Goldstone, Jack, Eric Kaufmann, and Monica Toft. Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. Paradigm Publishers, 2012. Read More