The Possibilities of Three Asian Giants: China, Japan, and India - Research Paper Example

The possibilities of three Asian giants (china, Japan and India) together forming a concert of power that leads the world Economic and trade are becoming most effective political tools in the current globalized and inter-dependent World. Fast growth of certain economies in the Asian continent has increased their interdependence over the regional as well as international countries. China and India has emerged as fastest growing countries in the current decade whereas Japan is already a fast growing economy in the World. All of the three countries are individually struggling to have their influential role in the international as well as regional politics and economic strategies in order to keep their growth rising un-interrupted and at consistent rate. Their individual efforts are obviously not that much forceful, therefore they plan to form some sort of political and economic alliance with suitable country and/ or countries of the region so as to give strength to their voice in the international affairs. Likewise, the possibilities of getting together and forming a concert of power by China, Japan and India depends upon their shared prospective and interdependence on economic, competitive efficiency, geopolitical, cultural, social, Environmental, geographical, strategic, energy and military strengths and future security threats. For this purpose, we will have to have a brief study of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats faced by these countries in various sectors and current as well as future interdependency of the above three countries individually and collectively in light of said perspectives. We are living in the 21st century borderless World and fast moving towards globalization. In this industrial age geo-politics is targeting to move beyond the existing borders in order to have an access to the resources of other countries, developed and developing. Countries having sufficient state power ( political, economic, military and energy) are using their market forces to have an access to the resources of such enterprises that are not located in their own territorial limits so as to survive competitive challenges from both regional and international competitors. For this purpose such countries put their efforts individually as well as collectively in collaboration with other countries of the same region, having no conflict of economic, political, regional and/or territorial interests. In combining their resources and potential they can achieve competitive strength and power, not only economically but also politically that can give them force to play desired role in their region as well as World over. Their collaboration can lessen the role of existing economic and political power blocks and monopolists in the World. China, Japan and India are fast developing countries lying in south-east Asia. China is a large civilization dating back about 6000 years and has about one fifth of the entire World population. Its history is by and large characterized by wars, violence, divisions and re-unifications. Geographically its boundaries lie in multiple regions starting from East to North-East and central Asia. China remained one of the World’s highly advanced and influential countries in technology till the early 19th century. Thereafter its economic, political and military influence started declining in wake of fast growing power of Japan and Western powers influence over the countries of the region. During the World War II Sino-Japanese war started resulting in surrender of Japan and financial collapse of China. In October, 1949, communists took control of most parts of China thereby forcing the than existing government to retreat to a small Island of Taiwan that still exists under the name of Republic of China. Being a country of vat land and varying geographical conditions the climate of the country also varies accordingly. It will be interesting to know that more than one hundred ethnic groups are living in china. China is a secular state but it has given freedom of personal religion. (Maciamo 2005 & Xinhua 2008) China is considered to be an emerging super power because of its fast and consistently growing economy, large but comparatively stable population, high military spending and other economic capabilities. It is not as yet recognized as a super power because of certain economic, demographic and political problems being faced by it. Regional countries are expecting an influential role of China just like the United States but that might take a long time because of certain hurdles briefly explained in the following paragraph. China has fourth largest territorial area in the World and it possesses vast reserves of natural resources like coal, minerals and oil etc. Due to its specific geographical locations it has constructed big dams that produce cheap hydroelectric power. China is a country of about 1.3 billion people, making about 20% of the entire World’s population. It has the largest military force of about 2.25 million, fully equipped with military technology and equipment. It has not so far entered into any multinational military alliance. Its first priority is to secure its borders. China has non-ideological approach towards its foreign affairs. It has developed its military, economic and political influence over North Korea. Its fast growing economy made it the second largest consumer of petroleum products; therefore Middle Eastern oil producing countries are keen to lessen their dependence over the western markets by increasing bilateral relations with newly emerging markets like China, India and Japan. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan are looking towards China as an alternate power to counterbalance the supremacy of sole World power, the United States, in the region. (Francine 2004) In order to strengthen its economic and strategic influence in the South Asia, China has expanded its trade relations with the countries of the region. Its trade volume in the region has grown to about $20 billion in a year that includes about $ 14 billion trade with India only The Chinese economy is growing at a rate of about 9% a year for last 25 years. It is an historic growth that has brought China, the fourth largest economy of the World having an average GDP of about 9 trillion US dollars. During this period its per capita income has increased by eight times. Its foreign exchange reserves have crossed one trillion US dollars. China is rapidly progressing in science and technology both in research and applications. It is planning to produce more PhDs in the coming years as compared to those produced by the United States. China is far behind the United States in its military capabilities. The issue of Taiwan could create a confrontation between China and the United States. It is a great hurdle in its diplomatic relations with most of western countries. China’s control over access to information is hampering its growth in certain areas. China is also blamed for restricting the human rights. Unrest in Tibet is one of its examples. It has certain allies in South Asia as well as in African and Latin American nations that are economically and politically unstable. China is supplying economic and in some case nuclear technology assistance is creating difficulties for other countries of these regions. Unemployment is at the rise in China despite fast growth of its economy. There is considerable disparity in the rural and urban income. It is reported that about 42 million people live below the extreme poverty line. Its economy is increasingly becoming dependent on its exports and foreign investments. China’s environment is degrading and its underground water level is falling drastically. Water resources are scarce. - There is severe industrial pollution in China causing certain riots in recent years. It being signatory of Basel Convention, Kyoto Protocol and Montreal Protocol, is an active participant in climate change and environmental negotiations and urges the developed countries to come forward and help the developing countries in fighting the environmental problems World over. (China Embassy 2006) India is also a fast growing economy with sustained growth rates and is struggling to become an economic player globally. India is 12th largest economy and second fastest growing economy of the World. Its economy is consistently growing at an average rate of about 7-7.5% a year. It is predicted that it will become third largest economy of the World by the year 2035 in case it moved with the same speed. Its overall trade accounts for about 1.6% of the World trade as of the year 2008. About 27% of its population is estimated to be living below the poverty line despite its rapid growth. About 77% of its population is reportedly living on less than half a dollar per day. India is the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. It has become a favorite country for outsourcing the labor oriented work because of its well educated middle class available at comparatively low wage rates. India is highly rich in coal, iron, and diamond and gold resources. It is producing only 25% of its oil and gas consumption. It is also water deficient country mainly dependent on rivers flowing North to south of it and underground water reserves. Its agriculture depends on the monsoon system that adds to its water reserves. Its currency has considerably appreciated against US dollar in wake of its rapid growth and rising interest rates. Although inefficiencies are reported in the Indian economy yet it has achieved World class standards in various sectors. Its capability to produce light combat aircraft, battle tanks and nuclear submarines is not at the international standards and reflects its weakness in the defense research. United States has imposed certain restrictions over the transfer of technologies to India in defense related sector despite the fact that it has comparatively less concerns over supply of needed technology to it, than it has with China. Expansion in trade with China has given India self confidence that it can rise high in the World economic order. Indian political is strong enough to absorb opposing views internally and that is the beauty of its democratic norms. Its strong and professional military forces equipped with nuclear arms ensure its integrity, stability and capacity to shoulder international responsibilities in any sphere Can India manage to maintain its current growth rate during the years to come, is a challenging question for India. Japan is the second largest economy after the United States. Its GDP is around 5 ttrillion US dollars, third after United States and China. It has some of the largest technology producers in the World in the steel, electronics, motor vehicles and textile etc. sectors. Its rising exports earnings have increased the per capita income to about 4500 US dollars in the year 2007-2008. About 15% of its exports are made to China as compared to about 23% to the United States. Its main import market is China comprising about 21% of its total imports whereas it imports about 12% of its total imports from the United States. It is a raw material deficient country and almost totally relies upon the imports of raw material including energy. It has one of the best infrastructures in Asia. People prefer to travel by air between the cities through a vast network of about 173 airports. Japan leads the World in scientific research having about 700,000 researchers in different fields. It is the largest producer of automobiles all over the World. Japan has a homogeneous population of about 128 million. Japan has introduced highly efficient and low emission products for vehicles, industry and commercial use. It has very little oil and gas availability at home, therefore it is highly dependent on the oil producing countries in the Middle East. (Wataru 2004 & Economy watch 2009) China- India relations were a little bit bitter in the past due to border conflict and the Tibet Issue, but are strengthening very fast in the current decade. Their two way trade has risen sharply from $1 billion in the year 2000 to $13 billion in the year 2005 and $ 20 billion in the year 2008. India and China has increased their constructive engagement at political and economic levels in wake of changing global and regional situation in Asia. They are taking confidence building measures besides exchanges at military levels. Indian companies are investing in China in the energy, telecommunication, and information technology, automotives and chemicals fields. India is extending full cooperation to China in the sectors it is traditionally strong. India and China share their interests in the region starting from West Asia to South Asia through central Asia. Both the countries either share their borders in this region and/or other countries of this region lie in their immediate neighborhood. The relationship between China and India has achieved maturity and character paving way for settling any common issue or conflict with mutual understanding. (Wang 2009 & Csis 2007) Japan and India strategic cooperation is directly linked with their strategic relationship with the United States. The United States is trying to buildup a new configuration in Asia-Pacific by forming a group of Japan, India, Australia and USA itself. Japan and India will have to plan their strategic and security matters in the global context, in case they wish to play major international roles in the near future. For that purpose India will have to show its readiness and commitment towards achieving a major power status and role globally. Japan and India are struggling for permanent seats in the UN Security Council. Japan’s perceptions about foreign policy are to follow the policies of the United States, whereas India is evaluating its relations with the major powers and its perceptions are not exactly in line with both the United States and Japan. It has its own independent political priorities and preferences. India doesn’t believe in ‘balance of power’ concept contrary to the thinking of Japan and United States. Japan wants strategic cooperation with India at the cost of its relations with China which is not acceptable to India. Further Japan seeks strategic, political and economic cooperation from India in line with its relations with US. India on the other hand is interested in investment and technology from Japan and is reluctant to enter into any cooperation that might be China-centric. It employs that India, has vital differences of approaches directly with Japan and indirectly with the United States. The only common point in both these countries is that both are seeking permanent seats in the UN Security Council. Japan and India are not coming close to each other as fast as needed for the stability and security of the region. Japan is at the cross roads in formulating her economic, political and strategic policies for India and China. All these three countries will have to concede appropriate space to each other in all the spheres in order to become a powerful block that can play effective role in setting the directions of big powers of the World. . Countries like India and Japan have learnt a lot from the cold war era. India opened its markets and offered attractive opportunities for investment to Japan but Japan couldn’t avail this opportunity due to its US colors. Although some progress has been made in the military cooperation between the militaries of Japan and India yet they need to strengthen their military relations by helping each other in building their capabilities and structure. Both the countries can move forward in the field of defense production. For a better cooperation between Japan and India, Japan can avail the opportunities of investment in power generation, oil exploration projects and development and construction of new airports. (Csis 2007) China and Japan have the status of an observer in SAARC, while China is struggling to get its full membership in order to seek influence over its member countries. India is presently reluctant to give full-fledged membership to China due to certain political reasons. US has strong strategic and security alliance with Japan that mainly focuses China, whereas India’s strategic partnership with US is still at its initial stage. Japan and China relations are frosty and Japan considers China as main threat to its security. In contrary to Japan’s perceptions about China, India’s relations with China have improved a lot in recent years and India doesn’t consider China as security threat. On the other side China and India has excellent political and strategic relations with Russia but Japan is still involved in a territorial dispute with Russia. Japan has Mutual Security Treaty with the United States that it can not dispense with until it develops its own capabilities to defend itself independently. Till such time it is to follow the economic, political and strategic policies in line with those of US. India has strategic, economic, military and energy security relationships with Russia. It also is expanding economic and trade relations with China irrespective of any reservations whatsoever. Japan is ensuring the un-interrupted supplies through Japan-US security pacts. (Michael 2007 & Express India 2007) The 9/11 attacks and United State’s war in Iraq and Afghanistan have entirely changed the global economic, political and strategic trends. Most of the developed and developing countries are focusing on energy security issues. The economic and political stability in the Persian Gulf has become the major part of foreign policies of the big and emerging powers including Japan, India and China. Regional and global security is utmost necessary for the already rapidly growing economies like Japan, China and India. It needs an international strategy as no single country or an alliance of some countries can succeed in ensuring the security of the energy supplies. The usage of natural gas by the Asia Pacific countries has also increased side by side with oil. These countries are highly dependant on Russia and other regions for meeting their gas needs. Therefore energy security concerns and other geo-political factors can influence the energy hungry countries like Japan, China and India. They cannot maintain their economic growth at the existing pace until and unless the security of energy supplies is fully ensured. It needs strategic and political cooperation not only of said three countries as also of European Union and other countries of Asia-Pacific region. This cooperation can be advanced through bilateral cooperation as well. Japan and South Korea has good political and strategic relations whereas they are against the North Korea. On the other hand North Korea and China has political and strategic cooperation annoying Japan and South Korea. This example of political conflicts between the developing countries of the region highlights the hurdles in formulating common strategies for security of energy supplies to the region. (Joe 2009) Emerging Asian Powers have forced the Unite States to reshape its new world order after breakage of Russia and end of cold war. Western countries are also reshaping their political, economic and security policies and redefining their role in respect of East Asia. They are applying their direct and indirect diplomacies for regional cooperation in the area. ASEAN regional forum is one step in this direction. The emergence of China and India as powerful economic and political actors not only in the region as also at the global scene has necessitated further cooperation in between the member countries of ASEAN. I have briefly discussed in the foregoing paragraphs, the economic, strategic, political trends prevailing in the region wherein three emerging economic powers are situated. I have discussed China comparatively in more details because China has its own geographical and political importance in the World. Its political and economic policies do influence the policies of the other countries of the region as well as those of World powers. What I have learnt from these discussions is that out of three countries under focus, Japan has its own priorities that are not supporting formation of any economic and/or political alliance with both India and China. So far it is highly dependent on United States and bound to obey its policies regarding the region. On the other hand, United States want to maintain its single World power status at all costs. It is against any alliance or cooperation just within the regional countries because of its own vested interests. Japan has no considerable dependency over China and India. We can, however see considerable similarities in the political, economic and strategic policies of China and India. Their geographic location of these two countries forces them to remain linked. Both the countries have a population that makes about 40% of the entire World population. Their influence and priorities are moving in the same direction. Therefore, I feel that I would be right to conclude that there are no visible chances of any sort of alliance between Japan, China and India for the present. There are bright chances of an alliance between China and India in the years to come. References Maciamo (2005), Sino-Japanese relations. Available from: http://www.jref.com/society/sino-japanese-relations.shtml [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Xinhua (2008), Japans political situation not to affect China-Japan relations. Available from: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6501270.html [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. China Embassy (2006), Relationships between China and Other Countries& International Organizations . Available from: http://big5.fmprc.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.chinaembassy.org.in/eng/focus/t247119.htm [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Francine, R. F. & Harry Harding, H. (2004), The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know, Columbia University Press, Wataru, N. (2004), Political and defence aspect of India-Japan Realations. Available from: http://www.csa-chennai.org/Files/indojapan.pdf [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Economy Watch, (2009), Chinas Economic Relations with India. Available from: http://www.economywatch.com/international-economic-relations/chinas-economic-relations-with-india.html [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Wang, H. (2009), The Relationship Between China And India--Facing The 21st Century. Available from: http://iaps.cass.cn/xueshuwz/showcontent.asp?id=262 [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Economy Watch (2009), Chinas Economic Relations with Japan. Available from: http://www.economywatch.com/international-economic-relations/chinas-economic-relations-with-japan.html [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Csis (2007), India, China and Japan. Available from: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/january2007_india-china-japan.pdf [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Joe, L. (2009), India looks to China to fill power deficit. Available from: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f5811bc-1c73-11de-977c-00144feabdc0.html [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Express India (2007), India, China to fuel nuclear energy power: IAEA. Available from: http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/India-China-to-fuel-nuclear-energy-power-IAEA/231830/ [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Michael, S. (2008), China and Japan: The Green Connection. Available from: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1820128,00.html [Accessed: May 20, 2009]. Read More