Election 2008: Political Prognostication - Essay Example

Election 2008: Political Prognostication After almost two years of campaigning, political primaries that seemed to never end, endless political debates, and non-stop television advertising the public is on the verge of casting one of the most important votes in American history. The choice between John McCain and Barak Obama could not be more clearly defined along the lines of ideology, health and welfare policy, foreign policy, age, race, and experience. Recent polls have reflected this clarity of choice as they have shown a wide difference that has favored Obama. People are faced with myriad problems, both real and imagined, and both camps have capitalized on fear in an attempt to steer voters to their ticket. Promises are made as charges and counter-charges press the hot-button issues of taxes and national security. McCain has relied heavily on his conservative appeal to the status quo of polar politics, while Obama's campaign has stuck to its message of change and unity. Clearly, the Obama strategy seems to be winning out. According to most of the major polls, if the election were held today the Democrats would sweep the series in a shutout of the executive and the legislative branch. However, polls do not elect the president as was seen in the 1948 Truman victory over Dewey, the inaccuracies of the Ohio exit polls in Kerry's 2004 loss, and the Clinton victory over Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary. While the polls give us some reason to believe that Barak Obama will be the president elect, the secret ballot brings into play the psychology of the thoughtful voter. Obama's substantial lead and apparent looming victory is at risk due to the unreliability of the polling data and the psychology of the American voter that will shift votes to the McCain column on Election Day. Analyzing the polls from the recent past indicates that Obama is the clear favorite, as well as illuminating specific issues that may have the most significant impact. According to the Newsweek polling data, Obama and McCain had been running statically tied from March through September 10th, with each getting approximately 45 percent plus or minus a 3 percent margin of error (Byran, Barnes, and Gibbs). Obama got a slight post convention bump of 5 percentage points in June, but that advantage dissipated and was tied again by the second week of July. The Washington Post has published similar results and indicates that Obama's lead had narrowed from 12 percent to 7 percent during the week of October 18-25 (Byran, Barnes, and Gibbs). The Gallup poll confirms the current 7 percentage point lead by Obama, while the Pew Research poll of likely voters shows Obama with a 14 percent lead (Byran, Barnes, and Gibbs). An average of 11 leading national polls shows Obama with a 6.7 percent lead (General Election: McCain vs. Obama). Among all leading polls, McCain has not held a lead outside the margin of error since September 11, 2008. In addition, all the polls agree that there are between 6 and 8 percent of the voters that are still undecided, and these voters will be critical to the outcome. This figure has remained relatively constant and could indicate that there could be a last minute shift in the polling data. As the economy has worsened and the importance of national security has taken second place in the voters' minds, voter confidence in Obama has fuelled his lead in the polls. According to Hayes, "In a New York Times/CBS poll taken in mid-October, 57 percent of respondents cited the economy as their top issue. Only 9 percent cited terrorism, and 7 percent cited the Iraq war". In Ohio, a typical battleground state that has been hit hard in the economic downturn, "voters polled said they trusted Obama more than McCain to make the right decisions about the economy, 50% to 38%" (Hook). Meanwhile, national security and the Iraq war, McCain's strongest areas of expertise, have faded from public importance, and "on the Iraq war, 47 percent want Obama as commander-in-chief, while 45 percent choose McCain" (Newsweek National Survey). This same trend has been noticed in the once Republican strongholds of Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado. Obama has made progress all across the country in just about every area of voter concern, as confidence in McCain has slumped and the unfavorable outlook of Palin has spiked. "The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes" (Fournier and Tompson). A loss in 2 or 3 of these Republican states by McCain will almost assure Obama a victory. Because of the consistency in the polls there is moderate support for the validity of the data. This has placed McCain as a distant second with a small chance of overcoming the Electoral College advantage that is held by Obama. . America's self-identity places it at conflict when choosing a leader based on party or ideological affiliation, and this is accentuated by the contrast between the conservative McCain and the more liberal Obama. Obama's substantial lead may be at a psychological risk as thoughtful voters enter the ballot process and their opinions become influenced by their own mental make-up, without the guided structure of a formal poll. Americans place a high value on the characteristics of individualism, tradition, and security. The American value of individual choice would place Obama, and his platform of genuine change, at an advantage, while McCain would benefit from the values of tradition and security that reflect "submissive self-restriction, preserving traditional practices, and protecting stability" (Caprara et al. 7,8). Younger voters will be more open to the expression of self-determination and be willing to go against the status quo and tradition. The voter turnout among the youth population will be critical to an Obama win. Chuck Todd, MSNBC political analyst, contends that a full 2 percentage points of Obama's lead could erode if there is only a moderate youth turnout as opposed to a strong one (Morning Joe). Obama's apparent 6.7 percent lead would then be cut to 4.7 points and it becomes a much closer race. Obama's recent lead that has occasionally gone into double digits has come about as the result of momentum, and not necessarily voter preference. Many voters will state their preference for the candidate they perceive as being the frontrunner. This is a behavior that is exhibited when the voter wants to be seen as a part of an in-group. According to Jost, Banaji, and Nosek a 2002 survey found that, "both Democrats and Republicans judged potential Bush and Gore presidencies to be more desirable as their perceived likelihood increased and less desirable as their perceived likelihood decreased" (889). People want to be on the winning side and will show a preference for the current leader. This factor could influence the middle independent voters and the still undecided group. While the effect is currently benefiting Obama, a slip in the polls could radically shift a few percentage points from the Obama to the McCain column. The desire to stay with the current system and resist change is another factor that will influence the final vote that is not represented in the polling data. It may be easy for voters to profess their desire for change to a pollster, but may not follow through when the action results in a real outcome. Everyone is willing to risk monopoly money, but resist when it is their hard earned dollars and naturally wish to stay with the status quo rather than taking a risk for change. The economy has emerged as the most important issue in voters' minds, and voters will vote with regards to their own self-interest. This factor is bolstered by the fear that the economic situation may be worse than it actually is, which has placed the status quo as an unknown quantity. This should favor Obama, as it will make voters more likely to vote for change and willing to risk an unknown outcome. Political polls often state a margin of error that may be as close as plus or minus three percentage points, but the reality of polling may make this figure meaningless. The proliferation of media and news outlets has heightened the need to produce polls and headline news. As a practical matter, many polls are conducted by phone and do not reach the cell phone dependent 18-24 year old age group. In addition, pollsters have been criticized for taking short cuts, not evaluating the risk of error, and using methods that do not stand up to acceptable standards (Rosentiel 703). In addition, the increased voter scrutiny and voter suppression can play an important part. While the recent changes in legislation and the election process is advocated as adding integrity to the system, "they downplay the extent to which their proposals disproportionately burden people of color" (Overton 17). The polls also fail to account for the psychological impact, and resulting misleading response, of being fearful of revealing prejudice or racial bigotry to a pollster. Questions may be constructed that unconsciously leads the respondent to give a pre-ordered response. The negative stigma attached to polls may lead some voters to inaccurately self-report as a means of showing their contempt. These factors, that may affect some of Obama's biggest supporters, is not considered in the margin of error. All of these increase the margin of error and dilute the validity of the poll. In conclusion, Obama has a lead in the polls that is insurmountable when taken at face value, but is a weak argument when the integrity of the data and the psychology of polling and voting is considered. There is no doubt that Obama leads across the board in the popular as well as the electoral vote. The fact that the polls all reflect similar outcomes is an indication of their reliability. However, the consistency may be masking a margin of error far in excess of what the data portends. Obama may suffer on Election Day from the disproportionate effect that low youth turnout, voter suppression, and voter psychology has on his major supporters and voting blocs. The near 7 percent lead that Obama currently enjoys could easily erode and disappear. While I believe Obama will win the election, the outcome will be much closer than predicted and election evening will turn into a very long night for the candidates. Works Cited Byron, Lee, Chris Barnes, and Henry Corrigan. "Newsweek." Presidential Polls Over Time. 27 Oct. 2008. The Washington Post. 28 Oct. 2008 . Caprara, Gian V. "Personality and Politics: Values, Traits, and Political Choice." Political Psychology 27.1 (2006): 1-28. Fournier, Ron, and Trevor Tompson. "AP Poll: Obama Leads or Tied in 8 Crucial States." Yahoo News. 29 Oct. 2008. Associated Press. 29 Oct. 2008 . "General Election: McCain vs. Obama." Real Clear Politics. 2008. Real Clear Politics. 28 Oct. 2008 . Hayes, Steven. "The Disappearing Issue of Election '08." The Weekly Standard 3 Nov. 2008. 29 Oct. 2008 . Hook, Janet. "Obama Leads McCain in Florida and Ohio, Poll Says." Los Angeles Times 29 Oct. 2008. 29 Oct. 2008 . Jost, John T., Mahzarin R. Banaji, and Brian A. Nosek. "A Decade of System Justification Theory: Accumulated Evidence of Conscious and Unconscious Bolstering of the Status Quo." Political Psychology 25.6 (2004): 881-919. Morning Joe. MSNBC. 29 Oct. 2008. Newsweek National Survey: Obama Leading By 12 Points." GantDaily. 27 Oct. 2008. Gant Media. 29 Oct. 2008 . Overton, Spencer. "Stealing Liberty: How Politicians Manipulate the Electorate." The Crisis (2005): 15-18. Rosenstiel, Tom. "Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less." Public Opinion Quarterly 69.5 (2005): 698-715. Read More