The Overlooked Explanation of Expert Intuition - Essay Example

Chapter 22 The in this chapter illustrates how expert can be of great importance. In the sense, that, expert intuition can be trusted although not in all circumstances. He states that the only instance where expert intuition can be trusted is only in environments that are sufficiently predictable. Secondly, expert intuition can be trusted where it has been established that it is possible to learn regularities of a particular environment through prolonged practice. He gives an example of chess.

The most important thing in this chapter is that people or experts do not know the limit of their expertise making such individuals think that they can achieve the impossible (Kahnneman). Therefore, it is important to understand that even though expert intuition is allowed it is not in all instances. In case the author is ignored on the information provided in this chapter, people would be overconfident in using their expert intuition. Additionally, due to overconfidence they make System 1 not to answer the questions asked but those they think are simple to them, thus, making it important to use expert intuition in areas that are required or necessary.

Chapter 23 The author in this chapter focuses on the three standard errors where he concludes by indicating that; the outside view prevails over the other pictures that are drawn. These errors include inside view vs. the outside view where the forecasts in relation to the outcomes of the projects are in most cases too optimistic. Secondly, there is the planning fallacy where the forecasts and plans are unrealistically close to the best case scenario, and they are made better by consulting statistics of similar cases (Kahnneman).

Lastly, there is the reference class forecasting that identifies and uses specific information about the case or identifying the appropriate reference class. He gives an example of railways projects and kitchen renovations. The most interesting thing about this chapter is that decisions are important in order to avoid errors. This can only be achieved if decision makers make the correct calculations of risk and planning the fallacy as well as optimistic bias. In case the author is ignored on the information provided then it would many consequences would be faced as the decisions make would not be in the interest of the greater good.

Chapter 24 The objective of the author in this chapter is to explain on the Engine of capitalism, which is optimism. He indicates that planning fallacy is the manifestations of pervasive optimistic biases. Where he further indicates that; people who are naturally optimistic top on the ladder of success. This is because such individuals are overconfident and are more than willing to take risks. This makes them underestimate the possibility of them failing because they believe in everything they do.

Such individuals are beneficial to the economy as they are persistence. The most interesting thing about this chapter is that although being optimistic is good sometimes it may cost the organization because individuals are the top ladder are willing to take any risk without fear. Therefore, such individuals may take excessive risks that are not necessary (Kahnneman). The consequences of ignoring the author on the information provided would would be overconfident which can result in failure because optimistic people underestimate their chances of failing.

Therefore, although optimism is a good attribute it should always be put in check to ensure that the decisions made are correct.Work citedKahnneman Daniel. Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Macmillan: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux. 2013 print