Will Revolution in Libya Succeed - Research Paper Example

Pros Yes, the revolution in Libya will succeed because Gaddafi is trying to continue in power by suppressing the people’s natural rights like freedom of expression, freedom to choose their administration etc 2. Yes, the revolution in Libya will succeed because Gaddafi’s leadership is an outdated one for Libya and people like to have a change in leadership 3. Yes, the revolution in Libya will succeed because the political change happened in Egypt will inspire the people further to strengthen their agitations against dictators like Gaddafi. 4. Yes, the revolution in Libya will succeed because Gaddafi is trying to suppress the people agitation with the help of his military power and it is difficult for him to sustain his power with the help of military power alone. 5. Yes, the revolution in Libya will succeed because international community is giving moral support to the Libyan public in their effort to expel the Gaddafi administration. Cons 1. No, the revolution in Libya will not succeed because Libya is not Egypt and the Libyan military is weak compared to the Egyptian military 2. No, the revolution in Libya will not succeed because Gaddafi is ready to go to any extent to defeat the efforts to expel him. 3. No, the revolution in Libya will not succeed because Gaddafi gives less respect to international opinions. 4. No, the revolution in Libya will not succeed because the west is reluctant in enforcing the no fly zone 5. No, the revolution in Libya will not succeed because US and Obama administration has no clue at all in what to do in Libya John Locke, the ancient political reformer argued that “people have rights, such as the right to life, liberty and property. These rights have a foundation independent of the laws of any particular society”1. In Libya, Gaddafi is trying to sustain his power against the will of the people. Majority of the people in Libya are against the dictatorship of Gaddafi because of the human right violation happening in Libya under his administration. It is difficult for the Libyan public to express their opinion freely, if it is against the political administration. Just like in communist China, Gaddafi is trying to impose hue censorship upon media so that the to and fro motion of unhealthy information between Libya and other countries would be prevented. In civilized world like ours, people like to choose their administration through ballots. Gaddafi is trying to prevent people from enjoying such democratic freedoms. ‘Hope for a new government and for more fearless opposition to the regime is reflected in the ongoing protests. Multiple Libyan diplomats and politicians, including the justice and interior ministers, have resigned”2. Many prominent people in Libya joined the agitation which definitely shows that the countdown for Gaddafi administration is already started. Dictators cannot sustain their power for longer period as the examples from Iraq and Egypt is right in front of us. Under such circumstances, it is difficult for Gaddafi to continue in power. Gaddafi is ruling Libya for the last 40 years. He failed to grasp the confidence of the public during his last 40 year administration period. He succeeded in remain in power by suppressing the agitations against him using iron fists. “Many in Libya still remember how Gaddafi used to execute those who opposed him — or those he felt had opposed him — and would leave their bodies hanging from nooses for days as a warning”3. Even during Ramadan period, Gaddafi killed many innocent people who opposed him. In other words, Gaddafi has less belief in Islamic beliefs and traditions even though he proclaimed to be true Islamic believer. Libya is a Muslim country and it is difficult for Gaddafi to remain in power, violating the fundamental norms of Islamic beliefs. The revolution taken place in Egypt recently, is definitely a motivating factor for the Libyan public which will encourage them further to use this opportunity to expel the brutal Gaddafi administration. Hosni Mubarak tried to stay in power citing many reasons- he argued that Egypt will be destroyed if he resigns because of the absence of suitable political leaders to succeed him. Gaddafi is also trying to convince the public in the same manner. He is arguing that the westerners are the major culprits behind this agitation rather than the Libyan people. “The Libyan leader laughed when somebody asked him whether he would step down in response to calls against violence by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Obama and asked; would anyone leave his homeland? Why would I leave Libya?"4. Mubarak also initially tried to ask same types of questions. However, he could not survive for longer period and Gaddafi is also going to face similar fate. Gaddafi is trying to stay in power against the will of the Libyan public and that of international community. “Indeed, elements of the protests were "pro-democracy", even pro "Western" forms of democracy”5. Communism and dictatorship are slowly disappearing from this world at present. Globalization and liberalization succeeded in bringing the people in different countries closer. The close interactions between people in different countries succeeded in people realizing more about the necessities of a democratic administration in sustaining economic development of a country. Collective growth is the slogan adopted by the international community as part of the globalization policies and this collective growth is impossible without a visionary administration. International community always like has a government selected by the people or democratic government for better cooperation between countries. Unfortunately, in Libya, instead of an elected government, a dictator is ruling which is unacceptable to the international community. The international community can exert immense pressure upon the Libyan administration and it is not easy for Gaddafi to neglect such international pressure and stay in power. Libyan revolution may not succeed since the military in Libya are comparatively weaker than that in Egypt. “Libya is not like Egypt or Tunisia, where civic structures existed and the army had power independently of the dictator. Gaddafi kept his army weak and driven by tribalism, relying on alternate armed structures and mercenaries”6. Gaddafi always had some concerns about the intentions of his military. He suspected that the military leaders may once make an effort to expel him as happened in some other countries like Pakistan and Egypt. He deliberately kept his military weaker in order to avoid any possible protests from them. “Strategists and military experts agree that the Libyan army has no experience in handling revolutions, despite its considerable military arsenal”7. Thus, Libya’s military do not have the power or strength to join hands with the public agitation as happened in Egypt. In other words, Gaddafi has nothing to worry about a possible protest from his own military commanders and hence he can continue in power. Gaddafi is a cruel person and he is ready to go any extent to suppress the agitations against him. “Colonel Gaddafi addressed the population on Green Sqaure in Tripoli and threatened to transform Libya into a ‘red fire”8. “In a state television address early Monday morning, Seif Gadhafi warned of the risk of civil strife with “hundreds of thousands of dead” if protesters don’t engage in dialogue with the government”9. Unlike Mubarak, Gaddafi is a notorious criminal and he may use force up to any extent to suppress the agitation. Reports from Libya show that Gaddafi already intensified his fight against the agitators and hundreds of people were killed in encounters with the military. It is difficult for the normal people to continue their agitations for longer period or countering the brutal tactics of Gaddafi. Moreover, the agitators are facing leadership challenges or shortages upfront to formulate strategies to counter the tactics of Gaddafi. Under such circumstances, Gaddafi may succeed to continue in power. Gaddafi is not taking the international opinions seriously. “Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said that "when he (Gadhafi) can laugh when talking to American and international journalists while he is slaughtering his own people, it only underscores how unfit he is to lead and how disconnected he is from reality"10. Gaddafi continuously ridicules the international community for their concerns about the Libya’s internal matters. Any attempt to extend support to the Libyan public is perceived as the attempt to destabilize an administration in a sovereign state. Historically, Gaddafi has shown less respect towards international opinion. During the Reagan administration, he labeled America as a hunting dog when America tried to raise concerns about the human right violations in Libya. In short, Gaddafi never enjoyed the international support very much and the present international campaign against him cannot make much impact upon his administration. “A leading Libyan human rights defender says it is doubtful the revolution in his country will succeed in toppling Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi if the West does not impose a no-fly zone”11. The Libyans are waiting for the western world to declare a no-fly zone over Libya. In the absence of a no-fly zone, Gaddafi can use his airplane, the helicopter etc to kill the agitators. Gaddafi is currently using air ways to kill the agitators. It is difficult for him to attack the agitators though land because of the superior power of the agitators in dealing with the attack though land. International community is reluctant in enforcing a no fly zone over Libya so far which is helping Gaddafi to stay in power. “The Obama administration and Europe have been undecided and divided for three weeks over what to do about the situation in Libya”12. Obama is hesitant in interfering in Libya. He has already the burdens of war on terror, Iran crisis, and issues with North Korea etc. He does not want to add to that list. America already head lot of criticism for the Iraq war and issues with Iran. Obama suspects that another intervention in Libya may unite the entire Muslim community against America. America’s reluctance in interfering in Libya will definitely help Gaddafi to continue in power. In my personal opinion, I believe that Gaddafi cannot stay longer in power by avoiding all the internal and external pressures. History always educates us that the dictatorship or an administration against the will of the public cannot be sustained for a longer period. The Libyan public has got enough energy for protests from the lessons of neighboring country Egypt and in all probabilities; they will use this energy to expel Gaddafi from leadership. America and Europe cannot remain silent for longer period and at some point they will be forced to interfere in Libya for the help of the protestors which will mark the end of Gaddafi era. Read More