Global Warming - Fact or Fiction - Term Paper Example

Global Warming- Fact or Fiction? Table of Contents Introduction 3 Greenhouse Gases 3 How is today’s warming different from the past? 3 Temperature rise due to Global Warming 4 Extent to which Suns variability causes global climate change 5 Graph showing that the observed temperature rise can easily result from the observed rise in CO2. 6 Results Shown by Scientific Studies 6 Global Warming: The Scientific Experiment 7 Effects of Global Warming 7 Seasonal Effects 9 Climatic effects 11 Human well being 11 Measures to control Global Warming 12 Alternative Approaches to the Control of Global Public Goods 12 Mechanisms for Economic Public Goods 13 Major Issues in any International Climate Change Regime 13 Conclusion 14 Reference 15 Introduction Any substantial change in the Earth’s climate that continues for a long period of time is known as climate change. This climate change which causes the average temperature of the lower atmosphere to rise is termed as global warming. Global warming occurs due to many different reasons but the primary cause of concern is the excessive release of green house gases. Green house gases are those which allow heat from the Sun to enter the atmosphere but do not allow it to escape back. Gases like carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor and fluorinated gases act like green house gases that surround the earth. (Kim, et al., “Global Warming: Definition”). Greenhouse Gases Emission of green house gases as a result of human activity is one the major causes of global warming. The green house gases reabsorb heat from the Earth’s surface, thus trapping the heat in the atmosphere. This process is essential for life to exist on Earth because it plays an important role in regulating the atmospheric temperature. These gases however prevent the additional thermal radiation from leaving the Earth thereby trapping the excess heat. (Stanford Solar Center, “What is it?”) How is today’s warming different from the past? Earth has undergone climatic changes in the past also but that was not dependent on the activities of mankind. This information is revealed from the evidences left by tree rings, layers of ice in glaciers, sediments under the ocean, coral reefs and sedimentary rocks. As the Earth moved out of the ice ages during the past million years, global temperatures rose from 4 to 7 degree C over about 5000 years. In the last century alone, the temperature has risen 0.7 degree C which is ten times faster than the average rate of warming during the ice age recovery stage. Models have predicted that by the next century temperatures will raise by about 2 to 6 degree C. Previously when global warming took place, it had taken 5000 years for the Earth to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next five years is 20 times faster. This is an extremely unusual and alarming situation. (Earth Observatory, “How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?”). Temperature rise due to Global Warming The 21st century might witness an average increase in global temperatures by 1.4 to 5.8 degree C. The number though sounds very small but it can cause significant change in climate conditions. Surprisingly the difference in temperatures of the Earth during the ice age and the non ice age was only 5 degree C. This will not only result in more number of hot days but will also lead to changes in rainfalls and weather conditions. Warmer oceans will increase the frequency of storms and hurricanes in the tropical regions. Sea levels might increase by 0.09 to 0.88m. This would be caused by melting waters and expanding sea waters. Global warming is also said to affect wildlife, especially for those species which cannot withstand hot climate and eventually they will become extinct. Most importantly the health conditions of human beings are also at stake. Global warming will increase the spread of diseases like malaria. Finally, global warming will lead to flooding of cities, more heat strokes and deterioration of air quality. Change in climate is bound to have an impact on the existence of life on Earth, according to the latest report published by the IPCC. They have also added that its effect will be witnessed by the developing countries more than the rich countries in the form of rising sea levels, growing deserts and frequent droughts. The Earth has been gradually warming since the year 1910, and the temperature reached its peak in the year 1990. Temperatures have been rising substantially since then, says the World Meteorological Organisation. A numerical experiment using climate models have showed that doubling the amount of carbon dioxide has resulted in a 2 degree rise in temperatures. Extent to which Suns variability causes global climate change Scientists have been trying to understand and establish a link between winds and temperature and the Sun and its cycles. The ice age in Europe, starting from 1550 to 1700, happened during a time of very low solar energy. It is known that solar variability changes the distribution of heat in the atmosphere. During the Sun’s life cycle of 11 years, from solar maximum to solar minimum, energy from the Sun changes by only about one tenth of a percent. Studies have shown that during solar maximum, large percentage of high energy radiation is emitted thereby increasing the amount of ozone in the atmosphere. Temperature rise in the ozone layer affects winds from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface. This change in wind strength and direction causes different climatic patterns all over the globe. However, Drew Shindell, a climate researcher from NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York have suggested that changes in energy levels of the Sun does not play a significant role in causing global warming. Green house gases are the major determinants that cause global temperatures to increase. Global warming continues to happen even when the Sun is at its minimum solar energy. (Global Warming FAQs, “To what extent does the sun’s variability affect and/or cause global climate change?”). Graph showing that the observed temperature rise can easily result from the observed rise in CO2. There is no doubt about the fact that the observed overall warming during the 20th century is nothing but manmade. But that does not exclude the possibility that some of the warming would have occurred anyway without human help. The warming caused over the last 30 years cannot be attributed to any natural cause. In any case considerable warming is bound to happen if emissions continue for long. (Global Warming, “The rise of CO2 and Warming”). Results Shown by Scientific Studies The IPCC located in United Nations in its latest report in 2007 has concluded that increase in the amount of carbon dioxide levels are primarily caused due to usage of fossil fuel and change in land use while that of nitrous oxide and methane are mainly due to agricultural reasons. This report primarily shows that human activities have played the most important role in causing global warming. Global Warming: The Scientific Experiment IPCC or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established in the year 1988 in order to provide a scientific assessment of the changes in climate, the reasons for its causes and also the possible impacts on people. The IPCC was divided into separate working groups to address the following issues. These are scientific aspects of the climate system, impacts of climate change and possible adaptations, and options for mitigating the climate changes. The IPCC’s third assessment reports lead to the following conclusion. Everybody unanimously agreed to the point that the Earth’s climate was changing. But, the more difficult question was “Why is it changing?” There were a number of evidences to prove qualitative consistencies between observed climate changes and model responses to anthropogenic forcing. A wide range of detection techniques proved evidences of human influence on climatic changes. (Global Warming, “The Scientific Assessment”). Effects of Global Warming Researchers, environmentalists and politicians have been forecasting the devastating effects of the rising temperature on mankind. Although the calamities are not well defined, some scholars and writers have laid stress on the point that a warmer climate is definitely less healthy. World Group 2 of the IPCC have also asserted that climate change is bound to have a wide ranging and adverse effects on human health and may even cause a loss of lives. The IPCC report have also pointed out that heat waves will be the major cause of rising deaths due to cardio respiratory complications. It also talked about a rise in vector borne diseases such as malaria, gangue and yellow fever. The researches have a few drawbacks. Very few researches so far have explored people’s preferences for less chilly weather. A survey conducted on people turning 50 in 1996, has revealed that 40% of them chose to select a destination when they retire and the most important criterion for selecting a destination was a more favorable climate. (Moore. 1996,’Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming’) Health Effects The US Department of Transportation sponsored a number of conferences in the year 1970 on climate changes. They were mainly meant to examine effects of changes in climate on health care expenditures and preferences of workers for various climates. Another gathering was held in February, 1974 for addressing the same issue. Researchers were asked to consider a cooling of 2 degree C and a warming of .5 degree C. Results show that for every 5 percent reduction in the annual number of heating degree days, which is a measure of winter’s chill, health care costs, would fall by $0.6 billion. The principal economist involved in the project indicated that a 10% shift in degree days would be equivalent to 1 degree change in temperature. Thus the gain in health cost for a warming of 2.5 degree C would be around $3 billion adjusting for population growth and price changes. Recent set of studies have focused more on mortality rates due to heat spells in different cities. These studies have found that the number of deaths rises during periods of very hot weather in certain cities. The result however does not apply to all hot spells or to all cities. Earlier researches had found a negative relationship between temperature and mortality. Bull & Morton stated that higher the temperatures in England and Wales lower were the deaths due to myocardial infarction, strokes and pneumonia. In New York, however they fell after temperatures reached 20 degrees C and then again rose with the rise in temperature. Other studies related to climate changes and human health has covered only a narrow set of potential medical area. The IPCC has reported that the geographical zone of potential malaria transmission increases due to changes in world temperature at the upper part of the IPCC –projected range (3-5 degree C by 2100) would increase from 45% of the world population to 60% by the latter half of the next century. Diseases caused due to insects may or may not increase in response to climatic changes. Many of these insects spread within a small range of climatic fluctuations. Plague, for example, spreads within a small temperature of 19 to 26 degree C with high levels of humidity but decreases during high rainfalls. Malaria bearing mosquitoes flourish under high humid conditions with temperatures ranging between 16- with temperatures ranging between 16-5 degree C. Relative humidity below 25% causes either death or dormancy. Seasonal Effects If climatic changes results in warmer winters without much increase in temperature during the hot months, as suggested by certain climatic models, then it would have certain beneficial effects on human health. The IPCC reports say that during this century the weather conditions in some major portion of the world have followed a certain pattern. Winter temperatures have risen and summer temperatures have fallen. A warmer globe would result in the polar jet streams retreating toward higher altitudes. This means that for an increase of 3.7 degrees in temperatures in New York City would make it similar to the climate of Atlanta. A survey conducted on 45 metropolitan cities in the United States showed that for every one degree rise in average annual temperatures, July’s temperature rises by 0.5 degrees and January’s temperature rises by 1.5 degrees. Global Warming has its maximum effects during the cold months and much lesser effects during the hot months. What is important to note is that climate change causes more number of deaths than a temperature rise in the hot months. The following figure shows the cause of death by change of season. Causes of death All deaths(Dec To Feb) Percentage Winter over June to August, Percentage Diseases of the respiratory system 10 149 Mental Disorders 1 123 Diseases of the nervous systems and sense organs 2 123 Diseases of the circulatory systems 46 122 Endocrine and metabolic diseases and immunity disorders 3 121 Diseases of the genitourinary system 2 120 Diseases of the digestive system 3 113 Infectious and parasitic diseases 2 112 Neoplasm 22 103 Homicides 4 88 Suicides 1 94 Accidents 1 97 All causes 100 116 (Moore, "Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming”) The above figure shows that on an average, deaths caused in winters are much higher than that caused in summers. Even deaths due to parasitic and infectious diseases are much higher in winters than in summers. Respiratory and heart diseases which kill numerous people annually also increase during warmer climates, but its peak time is during the winters. Except for accidents, suicides and homicides which occur mainly during the hot climate, deaths rates for all other causes rise during the winters. During the year 1987 to 1989, mortality rates were 16 percent more in winters than in summers. Climatic effects If death rates were lower during warm climatic conditions it would support the fact that a rise in temperature would reduce mortality. But surveys show that the effect of temperature reduces life by a short period. In fact a number of factors affect mortality. In a given population, the portion of people that is old affects death rates. Because of the fact, African-Americans have lower life expectancies that the whites, mortality rate are more influenced by the proportion of whites. Life expectancy is also related to income and education. Smoking is another factor which shortens life. Substantial air pollution can increase mortality rate significantly for short periods. Ideally death rates should be adjusted according to the age and race in order to examine the effect of climatic changes. In order to examine whether it was the temperature or the sunlight that was linked to mortality; latitude and elevation of countries was taken into account. It would be more useful to use data on smoking rates but such data are not available. State data during the period 1955 to 1985 shows smoking rates are much higher in the south. Thus smoking can be directly correlated to the temperature. Human well being Adam Smith had pointed out in his book, ‘The Wealth of Nations’ that workers must be paid more if they had to do nasty jobs and work in unpleasant environments. An examination of the job market shows that the above proposition is strongly correct. Workers working in the north slope of Alaska have to be paid a premium in order to cope with climate over there. (Moore. 1996,’Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming’) Measures to control Global Warming The first international treaty that was signed on climate change was known as the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Five years ago, countries agreed to implement the Kyoto Protocol as a mechanism to control the emission of green house gases (GHG). The Bush administration did not abide by the protocol. The other parties decided to go ahead with the Kyoto Protocol, but the current round of the protocol is least likely to achieve much success as far as emission of green house gases is concerned. Alternative Approaches to the Control of Global Public Goods Global public goods are public goods whose influences are felt by the entire world even though they might be generated in a particular nation, town or family. A variety of instruments and techniques have been developed to deal with the global public good issue. Some of them are discussed below. Laissez-faire approach, more commonly known as non cooperative approach taken up to ensure antibiotic resistance. Another agreement known as ‘Aspirational agreement’ or non binding voluntary agreements was signed in order to clean up the pollutants present in the North Sea. Unilateral action in which a single country or a small group of countries chose to undertake a particular action (currently in effect for Chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs and other environmental agreements.) Mechanisms for Economic Public Goods Economic public goods involve those activities that engage huge number of economic agents, are undertaken by large number of countries, but do not address particular issues, such as ‘no AIDS’, no small pox, no financial or nuclear meltdown, no use of nuclear weapons, no trade barriers. Some of the approaches have been discussed below. Under this approach an agreement proceeds by imposing limits on emissions by different countries. Another kind of approach attempts to harmonize prices, fees and taxes in order to coordinate policies among different countries. Major Issues in any International Climate Change Regime Any climate change regime has to take into account three important aspects. These include reduction in the level of emission, distribution of reduction in emission among different countries, enhancing the participation of low income countries in the regime. Under the qualitative approach, the level of emission is directly chosen. Under the price approach, the level of emission can be monitored by the amount of taxes or penalty the countries pay on carbon emissions. An economic approach has been undertaken to maintain the distribution of emission among different countries. The most effective way is to distribute the burden of emission among different countries in a fair way. Studies show that participation of low income countries will help in reducing emissions. Hence it becomes imperative for the high income countries to provide assistance to low income countries if the latter is to participate in emission reduction programs. (Nordhaus, ‘After Kyoto: Alternative Mechanisms to Control Global Warming’). Conclusion It is important for countries to follow strict environmental ethics and traditional economics for any measure to succeed. Only then can we expect to minimize the effect of today’s activity on the future generation. The next few years are critical for developing the mechanism for carbon capture and storage. Investment in the right direction and the commitment of countries to reduce emissions are the prerequisites to control global warming. A number of surveys on environmental studies have shown that global warming is not a fiction and therefore the issue needs to be addressed immediately to ensure successful results. (Socolow, "Can We bury Global Warming”, p.7) Reference Global Warming FAQs. To what extent does the sun’s variability affect and/or cause global climate change? No Date. Stanford Solar Center. June 17, 2010. < http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/FAQ2.html > Global Warming. The Rise of CO2 and Warming. No Date. Earth Guide. June 17, 2010. < http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/global_warming/03.html> Global Warming. The Scientific Assessment. No Date. Earth Guide. June 17, 2010. < http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/global_warming/04.html> How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past? No Date. Earth Observatory. June 17, 2010. < http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php>. Kim, Y. Granger, E. Puckett, K. Hasar, C. Francel, L. Global Warming: Definition. No Date. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. June 17, 2010. . Moore, T. Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming. 1996. Stanford University. June 17, 2010. < http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html> Stanford Solar Center. What is it? No Date. Global Warming June 17, 2010. < http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html#top >. Read More