What will happen to Iraq if the US leaves - Essay Example

What will happen to Iraq if the US leaves Many have often guided the public opinion on how money influences the US political system and what are the consequences of such a political system influenced by the money power. The discussions of the US political system in this respect provide the most important explanations of some of the ongoing practices in the world. One of the most important events in the current world affairs is the invasion of Iraq by the US and there have been several essential voices arguing that it is high time for the US to leave the region to set the Iraqis free to pursue their political and economic destiny. Critics who regard the invasion of Iraq by the US as a serious offence against the freedom of that nation argue that America needs to establish normalcy in the region before they leave the land. "No one can say with confidence what will happen in Iraq if the United States leaves precipitously and without making a continuing effort to compensate for its mistakes and failures. It is easy to talk about intensive civil war, 'blood baths', and an international resurgence of al-Qaida. Such worst cases are possible, but the most likely result is less violent sectarian and ethnic cleansing, and the de facto division of much of the country." (Cordesman and Davies, 2008, p 737). Therefore, the most essential question in the present context is not whether the US invasion of Iraq is justifiable or not, but what happens if the US leaves Iraq all on a sudden. In this paper a careful and reflective analysis of this essential question concerning Iraq's future if the US leaves the region is conducted and the discussion in this regard not only is vital to an understanding of the political system in the US but also to an understanding of some of the most important world affairs as well as affairs in the Iraqi region. In a careful analysis of the current situation in Iraq, it is essential to comprehend that there are several benefits if the US army stay longer in the region. People, who consider that going into Iraq was a big mistake committed by the US, are greatly concerned about what will happen when USA leaves Iraq. To most of them, it will be foolish to consider that the Iraqis are able to defend themselves against all the issues in the country and the region. First of all, there will be great chaos in the nation and the region if the US leaves immediately. Although there are people who argue for the rapid withdrawal of the US troops from the region, on the basis of the unfortunate developments precipitated by the US invasion of Iraq, it is not logical for the army to leave the region before the Iraqi security forces are self-sufficient. Such a rapid withdrawal of the US troops will inflict long term damage on US credibility and ability to deter enemies and would facilitate the objectives of the al-Qaeda. "In Iraq, the United States has demonstrated that it will stand and fight in the face of adversity when it believes that its core interests are at stake. US determination in Iraq has done much to counter previous jihadists' perceptions of the United States as a 'paper tiger' If the United States leaves prematurely, these gains will be lost and Iraq will join Vietnam, Beirut, Aden, and Somalia in the jihadi mantra regarding US weakness." (Forest, 2007, p 47). Apart from these, it is also argued that some of the powerful leaders from within Iraq can emerge in the nation, take over the government and eventually result in another dictatorship. Also there is a possibility that Iran will invade Iraq and take over it if the US leaves the region all on a sudden. There is a serious argument that "Iraq will become a terrorist haven if the United States leaves." (Preble and Logan, 2005). Reports from the Baghdad confirms that the US withdrawal from the region can affect the normalization process of the country and "Iraq's foreign minister warned that a quick American military withdrawal from the country could lead to a full-scale civil war, the collapse of the government and spillover conflicts across the region." (Top official warns of Iraq collapse if U.S. leaves, 2007). According to recent reports, the attempts to withdraw army from Iraq's urban areas proved to be highly risky and both Iraqi and the US officials warned of increasing rates of violence as the deadline for withdrawal approached. In fact, they were right as a series of bombings around the country killed hundreds of people and it is premature to withdraw troops from the region. "The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq's urban areas is a critical test of the institutions set up in the past six years." (Denselow, 2009). Therefore, the immediate US military withdrawal from Iraq can result in a highly unfavorable situation to the country as well as the region and it is the prime duty of the US to ensure that normalcy in Iraq happens without any threat to the security of the nation and the region. Similarly, "there are too many imbalances that need to be addressed, economic, political and social" in the post-war Iraq and an immediate army withdrawal by the US will affect the process of coming to normalcy in the state. (Laipson, Clawson, Parasiliti, and Francke, 1999, p 3). According to the supporters of the US troops in the Iraqi region, "by withdrawing from Iraq, we'd unleash a bloodbath, hand al-Qaeda and Iran huge victories, destabilize the Persian Gulf and empower terrorists everywhere to attack our allies and our homeland. In the face of those dangers America has no choice but to remain in Iraq until a democracy emerges from the chaos of the Middle East..." (Duffy, 2007). There is, however, another essential argument, represented by many congressional Democrats, which holds that it is high time for America to leave Iraq. "The best thing that could happen now is for the U.S. to pull out as quickly as possible, force the Iraqis to take control of their destinies and compel the oil-rich Gulf States in the neighborhood to get off the sidelines. In this view, leaving Iraq would deny al-Qaeda its best recruiting tool, a large U.S. military presence in the Middle East." (Duffy, 2007). According to these critics, it will also help U.S. save the $10 billion a month which is spent on the war and rescue the U.S. Army and Marine Corps before they both collapse. According to media reports, including the Washington Post, most military experts disagree with the scenario in which al Qaeda and Iran would take over use the country as a launching pad for attacks on the United States. They perceive such arguments as mere 'war games' or 'war tricks'. "According to recent 'war games' exercises conducted for the U.S. military, the most likely outcome of a U.S. withdrawal is that the central government would fall apart and Iraq would effectively split into three separate nations." (Hoar, 2007). Similarly, there are also reports that emphasize that the al-Qaeda would not inherit the land if the US leaves Iraq. "The vast majority of Iraqis do not support Al-Qaeda's methods or objectives, and they would be even less likely to do so after the U.S. military left Iraq." (Preble and Logan, 2005). The supporters of the anti-war movement also argue that "a continued American military presence in Iraq does not meet the just-war criteria and that withdrawal is therefore the only moral option." (Shadle, 2007, p 9). In conclusion, there are arguments for and against the immediate withdrawal of the US troops from the Iraqi soil and it is essential to come to a conclusion after a reflective analysis of the benefits and drawbacks of such a move. In a profound understanding of the contemporary state of affairs in Iraq and the region, it is most vital to recognize the prime duty of the US to ensure that normalcy takes place in the region without any threat to the security of the Iraqis. It is also important that the region does not become all the more concentrated on developing terrorist interests in the world and the US needs to strengthen the security system of the region. Therefore, judged from the perspective of security, stability and long lasting peace in the region and the world, it is premature for the US to withdraw its forces from the region, though it is essential for the US to leave Iraq as early as the region recovers to normalcy. References Cordesman, Anthony H. and Davies, Emma R. (2008). Iraq's insurgency and the road to civil conflict. New York: Greenwood Publishing Group. p 737. Denselow, James. (2009). "Cracks Show as US Leaves Iraq Cities." The Huffingtonpost. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-denselow/cracks-show-as-us-leaves_b_222853.html Duffy, Michael. (2007) "How to Leave Iraq." TIME. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1644877,00.html Forest, James J. F. (2007). Countering Terrorism and Insurgency in the 21st Century. New York: Greenwood Publishing Group. p 47. Hoar, Jennifer. (2007). "What Happens If U.S. Leaves Iraq" CBS News. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/17/the_skinny/main3065305.shtml Laipson, Ellen., Clawson, Patrick L., Parasiliti, Andrew., and Francke, Rend Rahim. (1999). "Symposium: After Saddam, What Then for Iraq" Middle East Policy. 6 (3). p 3. Preble, Christopher and Logan, Justin. (2005). "If U.S. Leaves, Al-Qaeda Will Not Inherit Iraq." Lebanon Daily Star. Cato Institute. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.phppub_id=5340 Shadle, Matthew A. (2007). "No Exit from Iraq" Commonweal. 134 (17). p 9. "Top official warns of Iraq collapse if U.S. leaves." (2007). Conflict in Iraq. World News. MSNBC. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19676021/ The log The annotated list of sources: 1. Cordesman, Anthony H. and Davies, Emma R. (2008). Iraq's insurgency and the road to civil conflict. New York: Greenwood Publishing Group. p 737. In this book, the author deals with the aftermath of Iraq war and the possibility of civil conflict in the country. It was a highly useful book to make some essential conclusion about the topic. 2. Denselow, James. (2009). "Cracks Show as US Leaves Iraq Cities." The Huffingtonpost. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-denselow/cracks-show-as-us-leaves_b_222853.html In this newspaper report, Denselow provides convincing evidence of why an immediate withdrawal of the US army from the region would affect the security attempts there. 3. Duffy, Michael. (2007) "How to Leave Iraq." TIME. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1644877,00.html This is a newspaper article by Duffy in which he suggests some of the most valuable measures for the US troops to adopt in order to ensure security in the region. 4. Forest, James J. F. (2007). Countering Terrorism and Insurgency in the 21st Century. New York: Greenwood Publishing Group. p 47. In this book source, the author covers several issues in countering terrorism in the world and there is a specifically useful topic dealing with the issues in Iraq. It is also a highly useful work. 5. Hoar, Jennifer. (2007). "What Happens If U.S. Leaves Iraq" CBS News. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/17/the_skinny/main3065305.shtml In this CBS News report, Hoar points out the various issues concerning an immediate withdrawal of the US troops from the region. 6. Laipson, Ellen., Clawson, Patrick L., Parasiliti, Andrew., and Francke, Rend Rahim. (1999). "Symposium: After Saddam, What Then for Iraq" Middle East Policy. 6 (3). p 3. This is a magazine article in the form of a symposium which finds answers to the various questions about the fate of Iraq after the US leaves the land. 7. Preble, Christopher and Logan, Justin. (2005). "If U.S. Leaves, Al-Qaeda Will Not Inherit Iraq." Lebanon Daily Star. Cato Institute. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.cato.org/pub_display.phppub_id=5340 In this newspaper report, the author reports that the al-Qaeda will not inherit Iraq if the US leaves the land. It is a useful source as it gives an opposite view to the normal thinking about the influence of the al-Qaeda in the country. 8. Shadle, Matthew A. (2007). "No Exit from Iraq" Commonweal. 134 (17). p 9. In this magazine article, Shadle gives an account of the reasons why the US should leave the land of the Iraqis. 9. "Top official warns of Iraq collapse if U.S. leaves." (2007). Conflict in Iraq. World News. MSNBC. Retrieved July 5, 2009, from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19676021/ This is a report in the MSNBC which suggests that there are several security concerns in the region when the US army leaves Iraq. The record of thinking In completing this assignment, I conducted a profound research on the topic to finalize my argument on the question. Thus, I came across sources which suggested the different types of opinion on the question. The questions that guided me in this project include what is general opinion on the question, what are the arguments in favor of an immediate withdrawal of the US army from the region, what are the counter arguments etc. This assignment also helped me to collect different types of resources such as newspaper reports, magazine articles, books, internet sources etc. In short, it was a highly useful assignment. Read More