Current Evet to American Politics - Essay Example

The 2008 Democratic Primary certainly appears to be a turning-point in U.S. history. In the race for the party's 2008 presidential candidacy, a female and an African-American male have a very strong chance of winning, not just the primaries but, the presidency. Hilary Clinton who, until the emergence of Barak Obama as formidable opponent, had a very strong chance of winning her party's candidacy for the 2008 presidential race, needs to exert all the more effort in her campaign. Certainly, as Patrick Healey (2007) quite rightly points out, former President Bill Clinton's popularity will function in favor of Senator Hilary Rodham Clinton's bid for her party's nomination.

However, neither Senator Clinton's association with a highly popular former president nor the ever-increasing unpopularity of the Republican Party, are sufficient guarantees of a Democratic victory. Indeed, as may be inferred from Healey's (2007) article, the complexities inherent in both the party primaries and the presidential elections are certain to make this a difficult race for Senator Clinton. The 2008 elections, whether for either party's nomination or the presidency, are largely complicated by the fact that they represent the first non-incumbent or open-seat race in exactly eight decades.

As the American government and political science scholars, Petrocik and Desposato (2004) explain, party primaries and presidential elections usually feature an incumbent as a contender. Ever since 1928, sitting presidents or vice-presidents have joined the presidential race as candidates and, irrespective of whether they win or loose, often pose as extremely strong contenders. In the 2008 elections, no incumbents are running for the presidency or either the Democratic or Republican Primaries.

To an extent, this may work in favor of Senator Clinton's race for her party's nomination and, if successful, for the presidency, insofar as she may be classified as a semi-incumbent. As is apparent from Healey's (2007) article, Senator Clinton seems to be well-aware of this fact. Therefore, while she had previously sought to disassociate her political persona from that of her husband, she is currently emphasizing it. In her recent New Hampshire appearance she consistently drew attention to the stated relationship, as when dismissing the Republican challenge by reminding supporters that "Bill and I have beaten them before" (Healey, 2007, para. 1) or when referring to her husband, the popular former president, as her "full-time political counselor" (para. 5). Thus, within the context of an open-seat election, Senator Clinton is strategically attempting to claim the advantages of incumbency.

Irrespective of whether or not her claim for the advantages of incumbency is successful, the complex nature of the electoral system can function as an obstacle to her bid for her party's nomination. As Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003) point out, the Electoral College system works against both the one person, one vote' principle and can lend to the election of a candidate who does not have the popular vote. This was amply proven in the 2000 election where Vice President Gore, despite having won the popular vote, lost the elections to President G.W. Bush, because he lost the majority vote in key states.

The unequal distribution of electoral votes among the states, in addition to the fact that a candidate wins all the electoral votes assigned to a state if he/she gets the popular vote in that state, implies that candidates may simply focus on large swing states to win the elections. As Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003) asserts, should a candidate get the popular vote, if only be a very slim majority, in all of Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, North Carolina, New York, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he/she would have won the requisite 271 electoral votes and be declared the new president of the United States (Neubauer and Zeitlin, 2003).

Accordingly, in its decision regarding its 2008 candidate for the presidency, the Democratic Party caucus should look towards Senator Clinton's expected performance in the named states prior to making its selection. Whether or not the Midwestern and southern states are willing to back a female president should be seriously considered.As may be deduced from the preceding paragraph, a number of states are critical to the determination of the president of the United States because of their electoral votes, while others are significant for symbolic reasons.

Chief among the states whose importance, while symbolic, has a determinant effect upon the outcome of the elections is New Hampshire. As Steger, Dowdle and Adkins (2004) point out, New Hampshire only has 4 electoral votes and, by that measure is hardly an influential determinant of the presidential elections' outcome. Beyond electoral votes, however, New Hampshire possesses a symbolic importance because, as the first of the primaries, it is popularly perceived of as an indicator of the direction which the elections will go.

The outcome of the New Hampshire elections influences voters across the United States. Accordingly, it is assigned unique importance by candidates (Steger, Dowdle and Adkins, 2004). Within the context of the stated, it is significant that, as Healey (2007) reports, Senator Clinton should begin her campaign for the Democratic primaries in this seminal state. From a personal perspective, Senator Clinton is a very string contender for both the Democratic Party nomination and for the presidency of the United States.

In a race which is characterised by the marked absence of incumbents, she has the advantage of a semi-incumbency status; in a race where elections are determined by a handful of key states, senator Clinton is the extremely popular senator for one of these states; and, in an election where all eyes are turned to New Hampshire, Senator Clinton had the political acumen to begin her race there. Despite the stated, however, the Democratic primaries remain an open race between Clinton and Obama.BibliographyHealey, P. (2007) Clinton reminds New Hampshire, I'm with Bill.

' New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/13/us/politics/13clinton.htmlex=1172034000&en=2d87a7ff92d46f3b&ei=5123&partner=BREITBARTNeubauer, M.G. and Zeitlin, J. (2003) Outcomes of presidential elections and the house size.' PS: Political Science and Politics, 36(4), pp. 721-725 Petrocik, J.R. and Desposato, S.W. (2004) Incumbency and short-term influences on voters.' Political Research Quarterly, 57(3), pp. 363-373.Steger, W.P., Dowdle, A.J. and Adkins, R.E. (2004) The New Hampshire effect in presidential nominations.

' Political Research Quarterly, 57(3), pp. 375-390