National Risk Assesment and Management from Two Sources - Case Study Example

TITLE: NATIONAL RISK ASSESMENT AND MANAGEMENT FROM TWO SOURCES OBJECTIVE To establish the various risks outlined in the two sources provided To know what mitigation measures were put in place to address them To critic the mitigation measures used for various risks discussed above INTRODUCTION Nation risk assessment is very important as it allows the people to be able to know the causes of some of the risks such as diseases fires and industrial accidents which affect the people, there impact on lives such us injuries lives lost, their environmental impact as well as the best strategies to handle them. The report addresses the various risks from the two provided sources how they are quantified the stakeholders involved, the results and effect of the strategies that had been put in place. (Elforsk,2006) DISCUSSION PART ONE Major source: The national risk assessment done in Sweden Several risk assessment were carried out in Sweden in the year 2012. They were critically looked into evaluated to see how they can be handled for the better tomorrow of the country. Some of the risks assessed do include the following: the increased school shooting case, shortages in fuel supply in the country, the heat waves which had become persistent and prolonged, major river dam failures and the cases of fire accidents on cruise ships. (Johansson 2010) a. School shooting cases There came a scenario where students were found with fire arms carelessly shooting at the students and people around. This had caused a lot of unrest amongst the students as no one was guaranteed of his/her own life. An example was in one school where an 18 year old student who decided to shoot the students and thereafter the people around only to be rescued some time later unconscious after attempting to kill himself. (Elforsk,2006) The measurement of the school shoot out violence cases was done by assessing the number of causalities in every occurrence of shootout in a learning facility and also the number of such cases reported alongside their frequency in a year. This assessment was done by combination of officials from the ministry of education, the health and public affairs sector alongside the county administrative officials (Elforsk, 2006) After the chain of meetings reports on findings of school shoot out incidents in the country were made taking into account all the causalities number of lives lost the frequency of the incidents and the police response towards the same. Any successful operation detail by police taken down. The results were then processed after which all the participants in the workshop sessions were given a chance to comment on the results. The main objective for this assessment was to see the trend and come up with a better way of minimizing such incidents form re-occurring. (Johansson 2010) The assessment of the likelihood of such a scenario to happen was at 0.1. This was attributed to the improved internet communication that can easily act as a source of incitement, where students may want to do it because they have seen it on the media other students are doing so. From the data an occurrence of once shooting in any single year is expected making it a national risk to the country. The probability of uncertainty is scaled at medium this is based on how many people will have short or long term effects when such a case occurs. (Johansson 2010) The conclusion that was made was the three bodies the police, emergency service unit and the medical unit will be addressing the incidents as soon as they occur. This will be facilitated by provision of all the required resources to the bodies. Some of the effects that were established for school shootout were: loss of lives, increased disabilities cases on rise due to bullet wounds. Social problems arose due to insecurity feeling amongst the individuals. Since the establishment of the effective means for dealing with the case of school shout within the country have been on the decline ever since. (Elforsk,2006) b. Deficiency in supply of fuel causing insufficient food supply On 25 of august the Middle East wants to close the main sea way used for transporting oil to the European countries. This has a great negative impact to Sweden as a country with three major crude oil refineries. The protests during this period led to shortages in oil supply higher refining costs which in turn meant the oil products were sold to the customers at very high prices. Due to insufficient oil and hiked prices transportation of food products within the country became a problem since the main source of transport energy petroleum had issues. Scarcity of food spread around the country and as a result some regions became hunger stricken. (Johansson 2010) The assessment of the risk was evaluated basing on several factors which included: the rate at which the oil barrel prices were shifting, the transport charges variations during this period, the fluctuation prices of food, and their availability alongside the quality of food that is available in the country for human consumption. (Elforsk, 2006) The risk was assessed in a workshop that was held on the 2 of October. It involved four main stakeholders representatives form: Swedish energy sector, the Swedish transport sector, the agricultural sector of the economy alongside with the national food urgency and the related research institution centers. The various effects of inadequate food distribution within the country were looked into in relation to the social life of human beings. The results were then processed after which all the participants in the workshop sessions were given a chance to comment on the results. The main objective was to determine the extent to which fuel shortage affects the distribution of food within the country in relation to the transport sector. (Johansson 2010) The likelihood of such an occurrence is minimum as very few countries would take such seriously when it comes to blockage of oil transport from Middle East. The Swedish refineries have never been blocked in the past and so chances of happening are very low. Though the risk occurrence could not be ruled out it was given a medium scale. The uncertainty of fuel shortage was given medium scale as this was based on how the fuel shortage will affect the social and economic life of the people. (Elforsk, 2006) It was found out that food distribution is heavily dependent on transport availability. Hence without enough fuel minimum transportation will be there leading to inadequate supply of food to the consumers. The effect is therefore very big and the society may only recover after addressing the fuel shortage problem. There was introduction of policies which govern the fuel prices in the country and also on world market this helped to control the fluctuation rates of fuel providing more stable transport network that led to a stable constant food supply chain within the country. Since then the country has had a uniform distribution of food within its boundaries. (Johansson 2010) c. Fire accidents on cruise ships The incident of fire on ships has been an issue worthy looking into. In the past several years a couple of ships at the sea or the docks of Swedish boundaries have been affected by fire accidents. The most famous was the ferry accident in which more than 100 lives were lost. Between 1992 and 2010 the numbers of fire accidents recorded were at 133. (Johansson 2010) The assessment of the fire accidents issue was done basing on the following factors: the number of causalities from the accidents, the impact on the environment the frequency of occurrence of the accidents. The results were then processed after which all the participants in the workshop sessions were given a chance to comment on the results. A workshop session was organized to handle the assessment. It comprised of coastal guard representatives, municipal representatives and the fire fighting unit representatives. During the workshop the main objective was to determine the cause of the fires in ships extend of their effects and best way to be able to effectively deal with such accidents as soon as they occur. (Elforsk,2006) An approximation of 500 was said to be dead incase such an incident happened and further 2500 causalities such us serious burns or physiological damage. The impact on the society’s functionality was found to be marginal. Economically millions worth goods are lost in each occurring accident. In general the impact of fire on marine ships is wide. From the data collected it was found that the likely hood of similar fire accidents in the marine ships in Swedish boundaries’ was at 0.58 percent for every year. This means that for every 1.7 years there is one fire accident likely to occur. The uncertainty of fuel shortage was found to be medium basing on economic and social impact of such accidents. (Johansson 2010) After the workshop modern fire suppression systems were installed in the ships with special training and emergency evacuation services being provided with all the necessary resources. The ships that were being bought had well designed systems that can handle any fire accidents. These measures have been instrumental and effective in minimizing the effect of fires on cruise ships since then. (Elforsk,2006) PART 2 Major Source : NRR for civil engineers 2012 According to this documentation the risks are classified into two major categories: the natural hazards’ and major accidents. Examples of natural hazards’ include: arising Human diseases Flooding disasters, the Poor air quality due to pollution, hazards due to volcanic activity, persistent wild fires and animal diseases. Some of the major accidents included accidents occurring in the manufacturing plants, due to electrical faults and also road accidents. (NSBR 2011) a. Natural hazard Human diseases They take many forms thereby affecting the people’s way of life. For instance sick people would not be at their best productivity and also socially they won’t be that active as compared to the healthy ones. One of the main causative agents is human viruses which have become persistent. A good example is the pandemic influenza viruses on the spread for over 20 years. (NSBR 2011) The diseases had several impacts to the society for instance increased death rats to viral infected patients, other 2000 people losing their lives to reemerging infectious diseases and decline in the net country’s productivity since the deaths reduced number of people available to work. These infections were quantified basing on the number of causalities to the infections, how many reported cases had been done to health facilities and the overall impact of such diseases to the peoples social and economic way of life.(Telford 2006) After a series of workshops conducted by both the government and the medical research institutions , data processed with members being given time to comment on the results obtained several measures were put in place to handle the spread of such infectious diseases. Some of these measures’ include: establishment of the influenza preparedness strategy which was aimed at handling the cases of influenza infections, establishment of a medical system where the country at any given time will have a stock of antiviral which can be able to cure half its population. (NSBR 2011) It was evident that after such precaution measures being put in place the rates and effects of the infectious diseases were curbed in the past few years, hence we can conclude that the current health practices have learned or been informed by what happened during the past cases of outbreak of such infectious diseases. .(Telford 2006) b. Major accidents i. Industrial accidents. One challenge with such accidents is that they occur in different forms hence their effects will vary depending on the nature of occurrence of the accident. Fires When they occur they either consume valuable goods, take away precious lives, because injuries, displacements and social disorder since the recovery time from such accidents take quite a very long time. Whereas short term displacement usually happens at the area of the accident. A good example is a fire outbreak in an oil refining plant. (NSBR 2011) Contamination It takes various forms i.e. gaseous, air, water and liquid contamination. In 2005 some food products had to be removed from supermarkets due to a raised alarm on contamination during their processing. In 1996 another accident took place in Italy where small amounts of toxic gases were released into the air. This left 600 homes displaced and over 2000 people being depoisoned however no death cases were reported. .(Telford 2006) Such accidents are quantified and qualified by the number of causalities’: injured and lives lost, the area displacement has occurred and the amount of time the affected community takes to recover from such a calamity. Main aim was to come up with well stipulated measures that will minimize the rate of these accidents and their impact to the surrounding population. .(Telford 2006) After several meetings with relevant stake holders: government officials, administrative representatives and emergency responders the results found that industrial accidents had four major impacts: loss of lives, injuries, and mass displacement and contamination cases. Several measures were put in place to try and minimized such accidents from happening as well as their effect. These efforts included establishment of a national act which oversaw all the industrial hazard processes minimizing the rate of accidents that occur from such sensitive areas. Establishment of nuclear preparation plan that was able to counter any nuclear accidents that took place. (NSBR 2011) From the current trend in reduced industrial accidents it’s no doubt that the measures put in place few years ago act as a major source of information to current system hence the reduced number of industrial accidents and its impact to the community around. .(Telford 2006) CONCLUSION From the case study of the two sources provided it was evident that the several national risk which occur on a scale range of low to high uncertainty should be well handled by putting place well structured policies and models. And provide an easier time to the coming generations on how to handle such occurrence since its acts as an information tool to the generation to come. A positive form this risk assessment is that the affected countries have been able to handle related occurrence in the recent years meaning good strategies were put in place from the beginning (NSBR 2011) REFERENCE Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning: National Vulnerability and Preparedness Report (NSBR), 2011. Elforsk: Beredskapsplanering för dammbrott – Ett pilotprojekt i Ljusnan (Contingency planning for dam failure – A pilot project in the Ljusnan), 2006, report number 05:38. National Electrical Safety Board: Drift och underhåll av reservkraft, Ett regeringsuppdrag,2012, ref. no. 12EV3841. Swedish Energy Agency: Trygg energiförsörjning 2010, 2010. Erik Johansson: Kartläggning av SCADA – säkerhet inom svensk dricksvattenförsörjning, 2010. European Commission: Council conclusions on Further Developing Risk Assessment forDisaster Management within the European Union, 2011, 8068/11. European Commission: Commission Staff Working Paper: Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster management, 2010, SEC(2010) 1626 final (17899/10). Civil Protection Ordinance (2003:789). Emergency Management and Heightened Alert Ordinance (2006:942). ISO: Risk management – Principles and guidelines, 2009, ISO 31000:2009. Swedish Emergency Management Agency: Beroende- och konsekvensanalys, transporter, 2008, ref. no. 0021/2007. Swedish Emergency Management Agency: Indikatorer på krisberedskapsförmåga, 2007, ref. no. 0433/2007. Swedish Emergency Management Agency: Klarar vi krisen: samhällets krisberedskapsförmåga, 2007, ref. no. 1443/2007. Swedish Emergency Management Agency: Omvärldsexempel 2005 – Krisberedskapsmyndighetens rapportering av underlaget i regleringsbrevet för budgetåret 2005, .Thomas Telford ,Swedish Emergency Management Agency: Risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser – vägledning för statliga myndigheter, 2006, ref. no. 0050/2006. Read More