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Limitations in Risk Assessment - Essay Example

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(Peter L. Bernstein, a consultant to institutional investors, is the author of Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (The Free Press, 1992). He also is writing Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, to be published by John Wiley & Sons in the fall of 1996…
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Limitations in Risk Assessment
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basis of limited information on chemical contamination and assumptions about thepopulation. Exposure assessments should not be based on a hypothetical maximally exposed individual (MEI). Screening risk assessments should rely on more representativeestimates. Risk-management decisions should be based on refined exposure assessmentsthat evaluate the distribution of a population's varied exposures and should addressexplicitly for any segments of the population that have unusually high exposures. Whenever possible, measurements should be obtained to support or validate any genericvalues used in exposure assessments, to check modeling results, or to provide more-realistic estimates of exposure than can be obtained with models.

Such measurementsmight include collecting data at locations where exposures are anticipated, monitoring theexposures experienced by individuals, collecting data on the physical and chemicalconditions that affect the movement and availability of chemicals, and providinginformation that relates exposure to effects, possibly using biologic markers.Measurements of exposure can be very different from estimated exposures based onsource characteristics "(Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Regulatory Decision-Making, 28)There are two broad types of mathematical models used in exposure assessment: thosethat predict exposure to the agent, and those that predict the concentration of the agent.

Exposure models can be used to estimate the exposures of populations based on smallnumbers of representative measurements. Models that predict concentration can becombined with information on human time-activity patterns to estimate exposures.Modeling may be done on long-term and short-term exposures, both of. ) http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jspml_action=get-article&articleID=96203&ml_page=1&ml_subscriber=true Bernard Goldstein, Director, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute and Chairman, Department of Environmental and Community Medicine, UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Piscataway, NJ

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