Project Scheduling at Blanque Cheque Construction - Case Study Example

Case Study 10 A project may be viewed as a temporary organization aimed at creating unique, predetermined outcomesusing predetermined resources at predetermined times. In order to restrict resources and expenses within the budget and minimize failures, a project management plan is drawn. Project management entails the utilization of techniques and information to efficiently and effectively achieve a stated project (Boehm 43). Estimating the duration of each activity in a project is a core part of project management and it gives a sense of how long the whole project will take to accomplish. A project manager may make use of the below approaches to estimate how long a project will last, rather than basing it on how long he is pressured to make it last. Expert Opinion The expert opinion uses the consensus method to arrive at an estimate. The project manager will engage the services of at least three experts who have an understanding of the type of project to be undertaken or have managed similar projects before (Kerzner 6). After a briefing by the project manager on the project requirements, the experts discuss it among themselves and each submits their own separate estimates according to their understanding. Each produces a task list containing effort estimates for each task. The project manager then hands back a list of the estimates to the experts without revealing to which one of them each belongs. He asks the experts to consider the risks and estimates of the others’ results and recalculate their work. The experts then discuss the project to determine if any assumptions or issues have changed after the last discussion. After studying the combined estimates, the experts revise their estimates and submit the results independently again. If the discrepancies are still not practical, the project manager hands the results back again, or invites more experts. The aim is to make the difference between the lowest and the highest estimates as low as possible. The cycle may be repeated severally until most of the results are in or close to agreement. Once in agreement, an average of the experts’ estimates is used as the project duration. However, rather than spending much time on the estimation procedure, the project manager may use the results of several experts in the early stages. For example, if three experts determined the estimate as 2000 hours and one estimated at 4000 hours, he may need to ignore the overestimated duration but with the knowledge that he bears the risk of the duration accepted actually doubling. Past History Past history is one of the most reliable ways to determine a project’s duration. If the organization has been keeping records of effort hours from earlier undertaken projects, the project manager will have helpful information to estimate the new project (Kerzner 14). This method saves the previous works’ characteristics in a database that is searchable for new projects. The project manager then describes his new project’s characteristics and searches for similarities in the database. He may also review earlier results in order to get an idea of the required effort in his new project. Even if the previous project team did not document the actually worked effort hours, the then project manager must have had at least an estimate of the original duration and effort that the new project manager may base his project on. Assuming he finds an old project that is related in characteristics to what he is working on and that the estimated duration matched the actual duration, he may be able to suppose that his effort hours also came close. However, if the project was completed with, say, a 30 percent remainder in time, he may as well assume that the effort hours also ended up with a 30 percent remainder in time. For instance, he may find a previous project that was estimated to last for six months and 2000 hours before completion. But if completion was actually accomplished after just the six months, it implies that the project also consumed approximately 2000 effort hours. On the other hand, if seven months were taken to complete the project, the project manager may estimate that it took 2300 hours before completion. He may therefore estimate his work on the information acquired from past similar projects. Mathematical Derivation The project manager may use the mathematical average of three parameters to compute the final estimate of a projects’ duration. He first needs to break down the project into activities by compiling the activities and tasks into a list, which he may use as a checklist. Since it is a new project, he may involve advice from team members or experts to estimate the duration of each task involved and come up with the sum total hours. With the help of his team, he will then create three estimates citing three different possible circumstances. The first circumstance will reflect the most likely situation with all the normal opportunities and problems present in any project. He may denote this with N. The second will reflect the most optimistic situation where all tasks go right as per schedule. He may denote this with R. The final one is most pessimistic where all tasks go wrong, behind schedule or fail to be completed. He may denote this with W. To get his project’s duration, he will use the formula (R + 4N + W)/6 (Kerzner 19). Supposing he and his team estimate that the sum total hours of all the project’s tasks is 100 hours in the event that all the normal conditions prevail, which is (M). Then if everything does not work as per schedule, the estimated time (W) is 260 hours. Finally, if everything works properly and the project goes as per plan, the estimated optimistic time (R) is 60 hours. His estimated time for the project would then be 60 + 4(60) + 260)/6. This will give him estimated project duration of 120 hours. The final result still leans towards the most likely duration estimated. Some estimating methods are more useful than others because they feature different input parameters and the results will differ (Boehm 24). If the results are impractically short and exceedingly optimistic, the project may end up taking much longer than the worst situations may estimate. This is due to the fact that unrealistic estimates seem to meet the project manager’s targets and he does not see the need to seek reasonable options to increase his chances of achieving the set tasks in the stated durations. Further, if the team mates believe the estimates to be unrealistic, they will not put in the necessary effort to achieve them. They will instead accept them as being beyond their capability and not seek to overcome them. Works Cited Boehm, B. W. Software Engineering Economics. New Jersey: Prentice, 1981. Print. Kerzner, H. Project Management: A systems approach to planning, scheduling and control. New York: van Nostrand Reinhold, 1995. Print. Read More