Forecast for Population in 2020 - Essay Example

25th June Forecasts for population in 2020 Introduction: Population was one of thebiggest problems of the world few decades ago. In an attempt to control the growing population, many countries of the world formulated population controlling policies. One of the countries that enforced the strictest policy was China. The one-child policy has started to show extremely dangerous results and the problems are expected to aggravate in the coming years. Considering the present trends and extrapolating them up to 2020, this paper predicts two scenarios for 2020.

Scenario 1: It is year 2020 and China’s working population under 65 years of age has undergone a significant decline in the last decade whereas the population in China over 65 years of age has become 1.5 times what it was a decade ago. If China’s age is compared with China’s economy, the former is found to grow twice as fast as the later. This has come as a calamity to the people of China because retired people in China are not provided with sufficient health and care benefits and pensions to live a happy and satisfied life.

Nevertheless, this effect is being counter-balanced by the increase of awareness and globalization that has allowed people to make informed decisions and choose best ways for themselves. The drop in young population is consistent with the increased urbanization that has occurred in most of the developing countries since 2010. Up to 70 per cent of the world’s population in the developing countries has urbanized in the last decade, thus showing a 20 per cent increase in the urbanization since 2010.

The increase in elder share has raised the median age of many countries including US. The median age of Western Europe has reached 45. From 2010 to 2010, Americans between 25 and 64 years of age have increased in number by 12 million, of which,8 million accounts for people between 55 and 64 years of age. the increase in elder share has increased the burden upon government which is responsible to take measures for good health of the increased number of old people. Scenario 2: China is suffering from a dangerous imbalance of youth gender.

For every five young bachelors in China, there is no more than one girl. Owing to the immense shortage of Chinese girls, Chinese bachelors are left with little choice but to either remain single throughout their life, or else marry non-Chinese brides. Almost 30 per cent of Chinese boys have got married to non-Chinese girls between 2015 and 2020. Their elders do not have a rosy view about bringing non-native brides into their families, and the elder population has conventionally had at harsh terms with the young population.

As a result of this, number of divorces has climbed up to dangerous level. In the year 2019, 55 per cent of the mixed culture marriages in China culminated into divorce. Educationalists, scientists and common people mutually hold the consensus that the immense shortage of young female population in China should be attributed to the one-child policy that has been in place in China for quite a lot of decades in the past. In an attempt to have their future secured, parents have been aborting the daughters before their birth so that the one child they would have would be boy who would take care of them in the old age.

Analysis: Of the two scenarios discussed above, scenario 1 is more likely to occur because the statistics mentioned therein are quite consistent with what past research says. As compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 puts forth a slightly exaggerated account of the consequences of one-child policy in China. According to (Fishman 2), a threefold increase in the number of people over 65 years of age in China is expected to occur by the year 2050. Thus, it makes sense to estimate the number of 65 plus people as 1.

5 times that of the number in 2010. Also, the UN Population Fund expects 80 per cent of the population of developing countries to have urbanized by the year 2030 (Fishman 5), thus, legitimizing the prediction of the urbanization of 70 per cent people till 2020. Moreover, “From 2010 to 2030, the number of Americans between 25 and 64 will climb by 16 million, but two-thirds of the increase will consist of people 55 and 64” (Fishman 7). Thus, an increase of 12 million can be predicted till 2020.

The statistics put forth in the scenario 2 also reflect the present trends. “…in about 20 or 25 years’ time, there will not be enough brides for almost a fifth of today’s baby boys—with the potentially vast destabilising consequences that could have” (The Economist). However, there are chances that the one-child policy would soon be abolished considering the potential threats it has exposed the Chinese society to. Even if this does not happen, it makes little sense to estimate such a huge distortion of balance of gender in China or an exaggerated divorce rate in mixed culture marriages.

Works Cited: Fishman, Ted C. “As Nations Age, a Chance for Younger Nations.” 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 25 Jun. 2011. The Economist. “The most surprising demographic crisis: A new census raises questions about the future of China’s one-child policy.” 2011. Web. 25 Jun. 2011.