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Population Change - Research Paper Example

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The paper "Population Change" presents that Denton and Spencer have extensively studied the effect of population change and their derivative attributes, on the economic growth and GDP of Canada (2003). The highlights of their study have been briefly elucidated and presented in this summary report…
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Population Change
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Download file to see previous pages The instantaneous rate of growth of GDP is expressed as the sum of rates of growth of variables on the right-hand side of the above equation; hence, logarithms are introduced in the equation. The rate of GDP per capita is thus expressed as:
The base data for the study are taken from Statistics Canada National Income and Expenditure Accounts for GDP (available from 1961), and the population series from the Staten (available from 1971). Both data series have been extended backward from 1951 using “old-onto-new” splicing. The labor force source population, as defined in the labor force survey, is the non-institutional population of 15 years of age, or older. Based on the growth rate equation defined above, the data for half a century has been generated for historical analysis, and with which forecasts have been compared.
Historical trends indicate that the GDP growth rate was highest in the 1960s touching 5.2%, and lowest in the 1980s at 2.33%. The study forecasted GDP for 2001-2011 as 2.52, which is quite near to the actual of 2.7%, as reported in the World Fact Book for Canada (2008).
A high GDP growth rate in the 1960s is explained by the fact that baby boomers along with augmented female participation added to the workforce. During the 1980s it is worth noting that both the labor workforce and employment rate declined.
It is also of interest to note that the population growth along with the labor force source population continued to decline since the 1950s. By the 1980s, the inflow of younger people joining the labor workforce, and the participation rate of older people declined. The net immigration however offsets, adding a part component to the labor workforce.
Labor workforce would decline, by 2011-21 reach zero, and then become negative. This would show a shift in the age distribution of the adult population towards the retirement end.  ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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