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Scenario planning for Globilization - Essay Example

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16 June 2011. Scenario planning for Globalization Story 1: The pine forests of British Columbia which covered a significant portion of land in the past, have been reduced to negligible. The woods have been eaten up by the mountain bark beetles, which have long sustained in these woods and have always been destroying the clumps of pinewood…
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Download file to see previous pages This reduction was first attributed to the growing number of mountain bark beetles by a forest ecologist, Scott Green from the University of Northern British Columbia. In the past, the pine forest used to recede in summer but would regain its density in the winter. But over the past 20 years or more, the mountain bark beetles have reproduced in such large numbers, that winters have hardly done any job to reduce their number, and the extinction of the pine forests have sustained equally through winter as they did in the summer. Recent research has shown the influence of rise in temperature upon the tendency of the mountain bark beetles to breed. With an overall rise of 2?C in the global temperature since 2010, the mountain bark beetles have increased in number by millions. Forest ecologists are of the view that if the present rate of greenhouse gas emission sustains for another decade, the mountain bark beetles would become the biggest threat to forests all over the world. Story 2: Over the last two decades, droughts and floods have frequently been occurring as a consequence of the 2?C rise in the global temperature since 2010. The biggest sufferings have been noticed in the Arctic. For the last twenty years or more, the temperature of air in the Arctic has increased at a speed twice as much as that for the other parts of the world. Accordingly, an overall increase of 4?C has been noticed in the Arctic. More than half of the total volume of summer sea ice in the Arctic has liquefied and flowed into the water over the last twenty years. This has majorly happened as a result of insufficient temperature controlling measures taken since 2010, since the scientists then expected this volume to recede not before 2100. The reality squeezed that period of ninety years into twenty years and the precautionary measures that were designed according to a ninety year period have proved just too insufficient. As a result of the massive loss of ice in the Arctic, polar bears have become extinct for the last five years. They are nowhere to be seen but the intensive care units designed by the WWF for the preservation of extinguishing animal species. The veterans are proposing new medications and techniques to increase the breeding rate of polar bears, but many are skeptical about the usability of these techniques since the polar bears can not be provided with natural habitat in ice after birth. Once released, many would die because of the loss of habitat like their ancestors. Story 3: The ice sheets have melted away with an enormous speed since 2010. The drought and spread of epidemics noticed in the last five years is fundamentally attributed to the rise of sea levels. The number and enormity of tropical cyclones has been greatly affected by the heat developing in the seas. Number of storms has generally remained the same as they were five decades ago, though typhoons and hurricanes have dangerously increased both in number and intensity. In the US, parts of Gulf Coast and East Coast have been hit hard by the typhoons, while coastal flooding has become a routine in New York. In the two consecutive years; 2028 and 2029, Queens and Brooklyn have seen some of the worst natural disasters of the past 100 years. The two foot rise of the sea level has also generated many hurricanes in Shanghai, Bangkok, London, Venice and Cairo since 2025. People have ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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