China in the Process of Overtaking the United States of America - Essay Example

Is China in the Process of Overtaking the United States of America as the most Powerful Country in the World? [Name of the Student] [Name of the University] Is China in the Process of Overtaking the United States of America as the most Powerful Country in the World? It has been predicted that development in China will overtake that of the US, within the next 20 years. As a result, the US will be challenged by China, with regard to its economic supremacy. However, the overall power of an economy cannot be assessed, solely on the basis of size. This is borne out by the fact that in the early 19th century, China, despite being the largest economy of world, was subservient to the much smaller European nations. China, even on reaching such a position in the future, cannot sustain its growth interminably[Kag12]. Thus, it has been predicted by some scholars that China will lag far behind the US and the European Union, with regard to per capita GDP. Compared to China, the US seems to have slowed down or even stopped. China’s economic data boasts of double digit growth, mass urbanisation, and renewal to an extent that is unprecedented. For instance, China inaugurates an international hotel every four days. This renders it the fastest growing hotel market in the world. As many as 90 international hotels will be opened every year, and this trend is expected to last till the year 2013[Sup11]. In addition, among the exporting nations, China has emerged as the foremost. This improvement has been from a previous position as the ninth largest exporter. With this achievement, China has outpaced Germany, which was previously the largest exporter in the world. If the predictions of Goldman Sachs, a leading investment bank, are to be believed, then the Chinese economy is poised to overtake the economy of the US by the year 2027[Nye11]. All the same, even if the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China were to equal or surpass that of the US, the composition of their economies would remain unequal. This is due to the reality that there would be a vast underdeveloped countryside in China. Moreover, even if China were to achieve a GDP of 6% and the US had to rest content with a GDP of 2%, there would be significant disparities with regard to per capita income. This has been expected to persist till the second half of the century[Nye11]. Nevertheless, China will be forced to make adjustments to its export oriented development model, due to the increasing contentiousness of global trade and financial balances. This has been realised by the Chinese, and their 12th Five Year Plan focuses on reducing export dependence and increasing domestic demand[Nye11]. Moreover, the burgeoning Chinese economy has been received with far greater enthusiasm than its increasing military power, across the world. Such positive evaluation has been forthcoming to the maximum extent from the Arab nations of the Middle East and Israel. These countries have clearly expressed that the economic growth of China has benefitted their nations[Chi112]. However, discussions are taking place regarding whether the US or China is the economic leader of the world and whether the US will be forced to concede its position of economic pre – eminence to China. These are being conducted in an environment of widespread uncertainty regarding the economic conditions in the nation. The people in the majority of the nations surveyed, have stated that the conduct of economic and political affairs have been dismal in their country[Chi112]. Moreover, Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, states that the US has been overtaken by China, as the largest economic power of the world. This is with reference to the size of its GDP. Although, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund state that China will take a few more years to achieve such a status, the fact remains that China is definitely the second largest in terms of economy and military spending[Ken12]. During the incipient stages of economic development, emerging nations benefit from imported technologies. This is a temporary phenomenon, and the growth rate diminishes as the higher levels of development are attained. The economy in China is now envisaging several serious impediments to sustained rapid growth. This has been attributed to the inefficiency of the state – owned enterprises, increasing inequality, internal migration on a massive scale, a social safety net that is clearly not up to the mark, rampant corruption, and institutions that leave much to be desired, with regard to their efficiency. These factors could foster political instability[Nye11]. Furthermore, the National Energy Administration of China has disclosed that during the first seven months of 2011, the nation’s total consumption of electric power had increased by 12.2% from the previous year to 2.69 trillion kilowatt hours. Nevertheless, as Yongqing, a prominent IT authority and business thinker asserts, China is motivated by national interest and not economic interest to become a superpower. Although, its GDP is tremendous, and the government rich and powerful, its average GDP places it at a very low position among the nations of the world[Sup11]. In addition, with the conclusion of the Bush era in the US, this country has gained a favourable world opinion. However, there are reservations regarding its superpower status. It is believed in many countries that China has either supplanted or will replace the US as the principal superpower. Such opinion is prevalent in Western Europe. For instance 72% in France, 65% in the UK, and 61% in Germany are convinced that the US will fall behind China[Chi112]. The first country to depict recovery in Asia was Japan. Thereafter South Korea and the countries of Southeast Asia, chiefly Singapore and Malaysia established their economic acumen and might. At present, the recovery process in concentrated on India and China. This has served to extricate hundreds of millions from the emasculating grip of poverty[Nye11]. This process has generated its share of concerns, principally with regard to the changing power relationships between the states. In the year 2012, China emerged as the second largest economy of the world, thereby effectively surpassing the economic prowess of the other nations[Mag12]. Unlike the rest of the developing nations, China has depicted a tremendous pace of aging. Thus, by the year 2030, the number of elderly dependants will be far in excess of the children. The indications are that China could become old, prior to becoming rich[Nye11]. Moreover, there are distinct disparities with regard to growth between the north and east, in comparison to the south and west, in China[Kna09]. Moreover, China has a dismal record in the area of human rights. Not even a quarter century has elapsed, after it killed a large number of unarmed citizens; and it is just a half century since the Giant Leap Forward, in which tens of millions were killed by the government[Dik10]. As such, dissent is countered with death or imprisonment. In addition, China has prevented the nations of the world from deposing some of the worst despots, such as Assad of Syria and Bashir of Sudan. At the same time it has lent all form of support, including nuclear to the treacherous North Korean regime[Ken12]. However, China may not prove to be a destabilising force in the world. Contemporary China has emerged as an integral part of the international system[Liq10]. This level of integration had not even been achieved by the US in 1918, when it was transformed into a superpower. At that point of time, US merchandise exports were of the order of 8%. In comparison, the corresponding figure for China in 2010 was 26%. Moreover, 50% of such exports had been produced by foreign enterprises. In addition, China has $3trillion in foreign reserves. The majority of these reserves are held as securities in the US and European Union[Ken12]. In most of the countries, for which trends are available, there has been a significant increase in the view that China will forge ahead of the US. The increase is more than 10% in France, Jordan, Israel, Poland, and Pakistan. Within the US, the proportion of the people who believe that China has already surpassed the US or is about to do so, has increased to 46% as of the year 2011, from 33% in the year 2009[Chi112]. This trend can be attributed to the fact that the US is considered by many to be lagging behind China, from the economic perspective. Western European countries are strong believers in this change. Thus, in many of these countries the proportion of the populace that deems China as the principal economic power has increased by double digits since the year 2009[Chi112]. However, in the other nations, such high proportions of the people are not convinced that China is the leading economic power of the world. Many nations of Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America regard the US as the foremost economic power of the world. Thus, the people of Palestine and Israel regard the US as the economic numero uno. However, Jordans and Lebanese consider the Chinese to be at the top of the economic pile. Very significantly, Chinese believe the US to be topmost economic power of the world, and that to by a 2 is to 1 margin[Chi112]. Those who consider China to be the world’s leading economic power, in the US, France, Germany, Japan, and Spain, have clearly stated that this is not a good development. On the other hand, those who believe the US to be the top economic power, consider this to be beneficial to all. Among the developing nations that consider China to be the economic leader of the world, this development is seen in a positive light. At the same time, in China, it is generally believed that it is a negative development that the US is the world economic leader[Chi112]. Some of the policymakers of the US have expressed that China is a premature superpower. Its underdeveloped status and unreliability to conduct itself in a responsible manner make it a truly dangerous nation. Therefore, China with its increasing assertiveness, will promote and preserve autocratic and abusive regimes, in order to further its self – interest, threaten war to achieve its vested interests, adopt policies to impoverish other nations, and pay the least heed to global objectives, such as the issues related to public health and the environment[Ken12]. In accordance with the above discussion, it can be concluded that China could emerge as the predominant superpower of the world, in comparison to the US in the near future, despite the controversies relating to human rights violations and the ageing population. References Kag12: , (Kagan, 2012), Sup11: , (Superpower on the rise, 2011), Nye11: , (Nye, 2011), Chi112: , (China Seen Overtaking U.S. as Global Superpower, 2011), Ken12: , (Kenny, 2012, p. 1), Sup11: , (Superpower on the rise, 2011, p. 38), Mag12: , (Magstadt, 2012, p. 475), Kna09: , (Knapp, 2009), Dik10: , (Dikötter, 2010), Liq10: , (Liqun, 2010), Read More