An Analysis of the Impacts of Corn-Based Ethanol Production on the United States' Corn Price - Thesis Example

Running Head: Quantitative Thesis Thesis Topic:  An analysis of the impacts of corn-based ethanol production on the United s corn price ChapterI Introduction The world is gravitating towards the accomplishments of the set goals for establishing a green world”. U.S President George W Bush has maintained the emphasis on corn-based ethanol production in the core of his energy policy. The thrust has been spurred by the critical and adverse impact on global climate of heavy industrialisation which emits atmospherically hazardous gases into layers of the atmosphere, causing global warming. The growing corn-based ethanol production industry has laid towering challenges for the various stakeholders in the fuel industry and food production and pricing regulation bodies. The crux of the matter lies in the resonating concern that the growing production of corn-based ethanol is contributing significantly to the soaring food prices. There has been a particular concern on the negative impact of corn-based ethanol production on the price of corn. The impact of the ethanol production has gone beyond the food prices (corn) influence threshold to the entirety of the agriculture sector. From a macro perspective, the impact has rippled beyond the precincts of the US into global fuel and food production and distribution realms. The major aim of this study is explore through quantitative research methodologies, the calculable impact of corn-based ethanol production on the price of corn in the US. The study aims to illuminate the dynamics that characterise the surmised and existent relationship between the two established variables; corn-based ethanol production and the price of corn. It is perceived that the import of the study, through the integration of both quantitative and qualitative evaluations will assist invaluably in the illuminations of the dynamics and dimension that constitute the soaring food prices bubble, in the US and the world over. Purpose The purpose of the study is to unearth and illuminate the existent relationship between the increased demand of corn and the farm product’s prices. More precisely the study is aimed at illustrating the dynamics that constitute the trends on price of corn determined by the escalating demand of corn fueled by the production of corn-based ethanol. Theoretical framework The study is conducted in the theoretical premise of macroeconomics among other sub-theoretical domains of significant proximity to the objectives and focus concept of this study. . The premise provides the theoretical components that illuminate an understanding of how economic and macroeconomic policies and factors affect the fuel, food production and distribution dynamics. The theoretical framework also presents macroeconomics analysis and inference tools that will help in the establishment of the ‘real world’ effects of the production of corn-based ethanol on the price of corn. Definitions of Terms Ethanol Ethanol; is also called ethyl alcohol or pure alcohol is a flammable and colorless liquid which is categorised as a psychoactive drug. In common organic chemistry notation ethanol is abbreviated as EtOh. Hayashi, Fumio (2007) states that ethanol is a pure-chain alcohol with molecular formula C2H5OH. Ethanol fuel is ethyl alcohol which constitutes the same kind of alcohol that is contained in alcoholic beverages. Ethanol can be used as fuel biofuel like gasoline. This kind can be produced from common crops such as corn and sugar cane. Ethanol is a growing source of renewable energy alterative to gasoline. Biofuels Biofuel is a term used to refer to solid, liquid or gas fuel that has been produced from biological or organic material. The kind is differentiated from the fossils fuels which are drawn from long metamorphosed biological material. “From a theoretical perspective Biofuels can be made from any biological carbon source” (Hayashi, Fumio 2007). The commonly used sources of biofuels nonetheless are photosynthetic plants. Commodity Markets Commodity markets are trade domains where-in raw materials or primary produce are traded. The raw products are exchanged on moderate commodities exchanges where-in their buying and selling is done in standardized contracts. Research Assumptions The underlying assumption succoring the thrust of the quantitative research is the surmised direct relation between the production of corn-based ethanol and the price of food. By extension, the assumptions entail that the relationship between the two outlined variables has a direct bearing on food and fuel (among other products and services) prices in national and international markets. The other assumption is that wheat producers (farmers) are striving to increase their production levels to match the demands of corn for both food (for humans and livestock) and fuel production. In this premise there is also an assumption that there is lag between the demands of corn and the total corn production capacity. Significance of the study The study is designed to illuminate and unveil the surmised and indeed existing relationships between the impacts of particulate policy thrust on specific matters. More concisely the study will contribute to an understanding of the measurable and calculable impact of the corn-based ethanol production on the prices of corn. The significance of the study draws from the insights the study will lay on the explorations of the dynamics of food production and retail prices in close relation to the protracted emphasis on the development and growth of the corn-based ethanol industry. It is perceived that the qualitative as well as quantitative outcomes of this study will assist in the policy development and regulation policy development and formulation for stakeholders responsible for the moderation of the fuel and food production and distribution industry. The outcomes will be of invaluable use in matters that related to efforts at striking the critical balance between the sustainability of the corn-based ethanol industry and the stabilisation of oil as well as food prices. Summary The research is thus aimed at arriving at authentic establishments of the features that constitute the relationships between the production of corn-based ethanol and the price of corn. The thrust of the research will employ quantitative methodologies of evaluating gathered data to establish the statistically illustratable effects of the escalating demand of corn (heightened by the production of corn-based ethanol) on the price of corn (food). Quantitative data will be augmented by a summation of qualitative nuances that derive from the trends on the core dynamics of the research issues drawn from various publications most of which will be enlisted in the literature review component. Chapter 2 Review of literature This research exercise is not being conducted in a vacuum. The research exercise fits into a broad body of knowledge which has had numerous contributions from various scholars, researchers, professionals and students who have carried similar or related research exercises. Also; the scope and objectives of this research endeavor occur within related and implied theoretical, ideological and philosophical frameworks which largely influence the disciplines of business. As such the researcher is spurred to consider the multiple contributions relevant and related to this research endeavor. The researcher will present a literature review conducted in locating the object of this study within the broader confines of the bodies of knowledge in focus. The thrust at accomplishing set goals in pursuing the ’green world’ philosophy and theory much based on the need to curtail the towering global climate upheavals has seen the emphasises shift in policy in various industry and agriculture fronts. President George W. Bush has had the production of corn-based ethanol as part of the core of his energy policy. This has brought in some merits and demerits. The resonating concern is that is that the emphasis on corn based ethanol production has adverse impact on the entirety of the national and international agriculture sector. More so the thrust on the production of corn-based ethanol has been the part of the root causes of the escalating food prices. Von Lampe, M (2006) notes that the production of corn-based ethanol has negatively affected U.S food prices in the current year as well as in previous years. He notes, “The effects of the impact are likely to continue into the following years especially when there continues to be a lag between corn production and demand”. The commentator has also observed that the production of corn-based ethanol has influenced food prices but not in similar proportions as it has impacted the oil prices and weather concerns. Eidman, V. (2007) notes that the production of corn-based ethanol has had far reaching impact beyond the food price aspects and has also contributed significantly to the rise of livestock feed demand as well as other corn-dependent food products. From another perspective the scholar cites Acting USDA Secretary Chuck Conner expressing that corn-based ethanol production "…has evidently had significant impact" on the food price rise. According to Eidman, V. (2007) Corner emphasised that fuel is getting too much of the blame "for what is being experienced in grocery store aisles.”. Elobeid, A. and S. Tokgoz (2006) give a statistical thrust on the impact of corn-based ethanol production of food prices. He indicates that the prices of food owing to the emphasis on corn-based ethanol production have rose for up to about 2.7 percent in each of the last three years. The scholar expects a leap of around 3.5 percent and 4, 5 % in the current year (2008). According to the scholar the price threshold will then retreat somewhat to a rage of 3-4% by the end of the current year (2008). Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi (2005) attributes the rise of corn-prices to rather global than local causes. He cites that Global weather trends that entail drought a scenario in Australia as well as increasing demand in China and in other paces have contributed significantly to the increase of the price of corn in the US in global markets. Corner has underscored the that surge and volatility in the oil prices is so much to blame for the escalating food prices which entail the rising price of corn and corn based food products. Corner (cited in Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi 2005) note that the rise of oil prices have pervasive effects for the food industry as that will impact directly on the cost of production, transportation and packaging, etc. The dynamics in the food prices and corn-based ethanol production interplay have had adverse effects for the corn-based ethanol production industry itself. Shurson, G.C. (2008) has noted that ethanol producers have been hard hit by the soaring corn prices which have been exacerbated by the plummeting of ethanol price by up to 30 % in recent months owing to a supply influx. The scholar notes that the VeraSun Energy firm has been considering halting its construction of a biorefinery in face of a diminishing industry outlook. Stake holders of the ‘green world’ thrust are also decrying the drop of the ethanol prices as they are expecting an actualisation of the envisaged prospects of the long term pilot corn-based ethanol reliance. Another contribution related to the premise of the study has been made by Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi (2008). The analyst expresses that the oil industry has to shoulder much of the blame for not absorbing adequate ethanol especially in a milieu characterised by the towering oil prices pegged above $80 a barrel on average. According to the analyst refiners have maintained that they do not have sufficient capacity to blend the fuel with gasoline. Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi (2008) present that further to that, the dimension that despite the upheavals and volatilities in the food and fuel markets and industries, ethanol production is still growing. “Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc. and other producers have contributed a sum of 1.2 bn gallons (4.54 bn liters) of capacity and 15 additional plants in March. The figures have corresponded with the total for the year 2006.” (Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi 2008) Stakeholders in the green world ideology have continued to make projections on the prospects of increasing corn production capacity to leverage the corn-based ethanol production industry. S.V. Joshi (2008) cites that US governments expects a production of a record 13,3 billion bushels of corn in the current year expecting about 25% of that to be used for ethanol production. Further to that the Fed government is projecting slight rise of the use of the proportion of the produced corn on livestock feed. Limitations of Literature review The research exercise has endeavored to solicit as much detail as possible under the scope and objectives defined and implied in the thesis statement. Nonetheless the research exercise has not been in any way exhaustive and the researcher herein acknowledges the limitations of the research exercise owing to it’s encompass and goals among a host of other factors. The focus of the research, and as such the literature review, is thus limited to the time-frame, conceptual scope and objectives defined and implied in the thesis statement. Summary A collation of the foregoing nuances can well be premised in a comprehensive probe into the effects of the corn-based ethanol production industry on the price of corn. It is perceived that an understanding of the dynamics that characterise the relationship between the two variables, the corn-based ethanol production output and the price of corn has fundamental contributions to the explorations and understanding of the root causes and dynamics of the soaring food prices. An integration of quantitative data analysis and the qualitative data evaluation derivable from the preceding review of literature will amount to meaningful contribution towards the thrust and efforts at unraveling the complexities that surround the fuel and food production industries. Chapter 3 Research Ideology and methodology To meaningfully frame the ideological, theoretical and conceptual platform for the research into the impact of the production of corn-based ethanol on the price of corn it is imperative for the researcher to consider research models that will enable the researcher to bring a considerable proportion amount of research detail into perspective. The research thrust will adopt the two salient research theoretical frameworks, the positivist and non-positivist research paradigms. (Barker E: 2003) contends that the positivist theory entails the economic, behavioral, cognitive, motivational/trait/attitudinal, and situational viewpoints. According to the scholar the viewpoints are treated as the conventional perceptions as they came before the crafting of the non-positivist model. In the views of the scholar, the positivist model which is still the principal framework reinforces the superiority of human reason and stresses that there is one objective reality which can be unearthed by scientific means. As such this design renders the world as an ordered and coherent environment with a well defined past, present and future. The tenets of the theory are clearly underpinned on the suppositions of rationalism. On the other end the contrasting non-positivist model holds the interpretive and post-modern viewpoints. Tenets of this model entail that the world be view as s composite social and cultural world contrary to the viewpoints of the positivist paradigm which hold the world in a rationality view that supposes a homogenous social fabric. Leveraging on the theoretical and principal tenets of largely, the non-positivist research theory, this research exercise will provide new perspectives, findings and insights that will assist in the exploration of the dynamics that characterise their relational link between corn price (food prices) and the production of corn-based ethanol. Owing to its merits and scientific thrust in treating quantitative aspects of phenomena quantitative research is widely used in both the natural sciences and social sciences. The employment of the research paradigm spans various disciplines such as physics and biology to sociology and journalism. “It is also used as a way to research different aspects of education. The term quantitative research is most often used in the social sciences in contrast to qualitative research.” Thomas Kuhn (Opcit) Below is an overview of quantitative research presented by Thomas Kuhn (Opcit). According to the source quantitative research is generally approached using scientific methods, which include: The creation of frameworks, theories and hypotheses The generation and development of tools and systems for measurement Experimental regulation and manipulation of research variables Gathering of empirical data Organisation and analysis of data Evaluation of collected results Scholars cited above state that quantitative research is often an iterative systematic process whereby gathered evidence is evaluated, theories and hypotheses tested and some formulated. Secondary data The research endeavor will also augment the primary data gathering and evaluations by conducting a secondary data gathering and evaluation thrust. Secondary data gathering draws much from published literature on the subject directly under the concept and scope focus of the research endeavor. According to Stewart and Kamins (1993), the use of secondary data is advantageous for a researcher since one can already evaluate the suitability of a data as it is already in existence, thus, much time can be saved. Before delving into secondary sources of data, an evaluation of potential secondary data is essential as a way of screening resources to establish the relevant sources of information which will provide relevant data germane to fulfilling research scope and objectives. Ethics Data gathered in this research thrusts of this study will be used exclusively used explore the dynamics of the hypothetical relationship between the price of corn (food prices) and the rowing capacity of corn ethanol. The research exercise is being carried out within the precincts and confines of regulations of the governing institutions as well as scholastic and professionalism values. As such the research drive is being conducted according to the guidelines and rules and regulations of the university. Details and information solicited from targeted and contacted research respondents will be used in the strictest of confidence and will not be availed to any other endeavors unless where all requite arrangements have been made and fulfilled in the interest of the research respondents and all other parties concerned. The researcher also hereby declares categorically the factor of absolute independence from organisations of or bodies of knowledge or interest that may be perceived to be of some association with the carrying of this study. The four stages of ethics in doing research are followed by the way of a good design, modes of data collection, analysis of data and for proper dissemination. Confidentiality and anonymity will be maintained on the part of the research participants (Should interviews be employed) and all other respondents contacted in premise and for the objectives of this research. Respondents will also be requested to participate out of their free will and conscience without any instrumentation of forces of coercion or impulsion by the researcher whatsoever. Instrumentation The instrumentation component of the research will entail the use of statistical inferences to illuminate trends hence the relationship between the two variables; the price of corn and the production of corn-based ethanol. Analysis The researcher will draw graphic and statistical comparisons between the growth of the capacity of corn-based ethanol and the prices of food in the US. This is expected to illuminate the direct impact of the protracted development of the corn-based ethanol production industry on the price of corn. Limitations Whilst the research is being conducted in commitment to the ideals of objectivity and authenticity, the concepts and ideas used and developed in the course of the study are by no means exhaustive nor are they sacrosanct in any way. The research endeavor may not accomplish the desirable and ideal zero incidences of ambiguity. The research is also prone to suffering the blow of some perceivable logic leaps much attributable to the novel approach towards fulfilling the scope and objectives of the study as well as answering the hypothetical research questions. On another dimension the ideas presented in this study must be construed and used in the full cognisance of the tacit and underlying assumptions for instance that there is a direct and measurable relationship between the price of corn and the production of corn-based ethanol. Summary The data gathered from relevant bodies with publications on the statistics that pertain to the growth of the ethanol production industry as well as the food (corn) prices will be used to illustrate the close relations between the production of corn ethanol and the rise of corn price. The study will entail in its core the use of graphic illustrations to depict the relations as well as statistical inferences to arrive at conclusions and some assumptions. The conclusions will be used to draw implications and the recommendations of the further studies. Chapter 4.Data Analysis Introduction As has been surmised in the foundational assumptions underlying this study, the relationship between the growing corn-based ethanol industries must be traced. It is expected that three will be a close relationship between the two variables as the 6% of US corn is directed into ethanol production. This has placed pressures and more demands on the corn produce and thus raising the biding prices of corn. The foregoing is closely intertwined with the rise of food prices in national and international parameters. Description of subjects The subjects (variables) to be used in this quantitative thrust entails, the price of corn, and the production capacity of corn-based ethanol measured according to the number of corn-based ethanol gallons produced per year. Statistics are obtained from secondary data using official statistics on the trends between the rise of food prices (corn) and the growth of the corn ethanol industry. Data Presentation The production of ethanol has been on rise in the US and the growth of this industry can be directly related to the rise of corn prices. The growth of ethanol production will be measured according to the number of produced gallons per year. A significant proportion of US ethanol is produced from corn. The local ethanol industry US is reported to have consumed over 13% of domestics corn production in 2005 and is reported to have used up to 20% in the 2006-2007 period. (Ferris, J.N., and S.V. Joshi 2008) Ethanol Productions Statistics 1990-1999: 1000 000 000 gallons 2000-2005: 4000 000 000 gallons 2006: +5 000 000 000 gallons 2007.2008 11000 000 000 gallons Source: national Agricultural Statistical Service [http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/pricecn.asp] Corn Prices Data Presentation Source: national Agricultural Statistical Service [http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/pricecn.asp] It is evident from the two direct–relationship graphs that the growth of the ethanol production industry has a direct impact on the price of corn. What is particularly notable from the statistics is that during the 2002-2005 periods when 4 billon gallons of corn-based ethanol were produced the price of corn was peaking from below $2 a bushel to about $3. Although the price took a lunge in the 2004-2006 phases the rise afterwards has been significant with corn price escalating from just about $2 a bushel to over $5. This is the period when corn-based ethanol production capacity was at an average over 5 billion gallons. Statistical interferences drawn from the trends and patterns illustrated on the graph show that holding everything equal, the production of corn-based ethanol will hit phenomenal figures of over 11 billion gallons by the end of the 2009 which may propel the price of corn way over $9 a bushel. Chapter 5 Conclusions and Implications The analysis of the data gathered and presented in the preceding chapters shows that the continued growth of the corn ethanol production industry has adverse impact on the price of corn which further impacts on the price of food as corn is used in the production of various kinds of food commodities. The trends portend significant implications for the food and fuel production industries whilst greater impact will be experienced across the entire food production and distributions spectrum. The outcomes of the study have significant implications as well on the energy polices. Harris, Laurence (2007) notes that if corn stocks are increased it will enable the corn based ethanol production to grow without requiring significant complimentary adjustments in the corn market. Statistics of the gathered data show that he U.S. closed the 2004-2005 marketing year (MY—September 2004-August 2005) holding corn stocks of 2.1 billion bushels whish are enough to generate 5.7 billion gallons of ethanol. “For as long as corn is the principal feedstock for ethanol in the U.S., however, continued increases in ethanol generation will in the long run necessitate adjustments in the corn market.” (Harris, Laurence 2007) Recommendations The growth of the corn-based ethanol production industry has to be supported through the development and the growing of corn production. As the production of corn ethanol increases, the supply of ethanol related products will also increase. Hayashi Fumio (2008) notes that both the dry milling as well as wet milling processes off producing ethanol produce in the process various economically valuable by-products the most notable of which entail the distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS). These can be used as feed for livestock and thus ease the pressure exerted on livestock demand trigged by the use of much of its corn in the production of ethanol. Hayashi Fumio (2008) states that every 56-pound bushel of corn that is used in the dry mill ethanol generation process produces around 17.4 pounds of DDGS. “IN the US, cattle (for both the dairy and beef categories) have so far been the chief users of DDGS as livestock feed, but larger supplies of DDGS are finding their way into the feed rations of hogs and poultry as well” (Hayashi Fumio 2008). The rising corn needs of ethanol producers may be meet through higher corn output. Increasing production will assure some increase in U.S. corn production into the future even in a case where the amount of farmland used for corn remains constant. From a research perspective, It is expected that the dynamics that pertain to the growing corn ethanol production industry and the price of corn are complex and thus further researches must be conducted specially on the dimensions of the export factors and the agricultural production factors. Such researches will help in a coming up with a holistic approach to the explorations of the surmised and existent relationships (as well as implications) of the direct interplay between the continued usage of corn in ethanol production and the price of corn and food as well. References Eidman, V. 2007. “Agriculture’s Role in Energy Production: Current Levels and Future Prospects.” Paper presented at a conference Energy from Agriculture: New Technologies,Innovative Programs and Success Stories, St. Louis, MO, December 14-15. Elobeid, A. and S. 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