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Regression Analysis - Research Paper Example

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According to the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) (2014) offenses such as motor vehicle theft, burglary, arson and larceny are all described as property crimes. All except arson involves the theft of money or property. In the case of arson, it represents damage to property. Motor vehicle theft and burglary are the two main property crimes of special interest because they are serious, prevalent and reliably measured by the FBI (Alfred Blumstein and Richard Rosenfeld 2008; 18). Additionally, only 32% of larcenies are reported compared to more than 50% of burglaries (Alfred Blumstein and Richard Rosenfeld 2008; 18). Several reasons are given for the difference in reporting rates and included among them is the requirement to report for insurance purposes. An important source of heterogeneity associated with the theft of motor vehicles is that a large proportion is stolen for joyriding as opposed to economic gain.
The trends in crime statistics in the United States show a 16.3% decline in property crimes for the period 2004 to 2013 (FBI). In fact, burglary has been on a steady rate of decline since 1980 (Alfred Blumstein and Richard Rosenfeld 2008; 18). An explanation for this might be increase in sanctions in relation to burglary which makes it less attractive than robbery.
In terms of motor vehicle theft the trend which changed n the 1990’from one of an increase in rate per thousand changed to a decline. This trend is still continuing (Alfred Blumstein and Richard Rosenfeld 2008; 18). The theft of motor vehicles has been associated with the era of crack when they were stolen to trade for drugs and later to prevent their own motor vehicles from confiscation. In order to reliably forecast the property crime rate several factors have been assessed through various studies.
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