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As Pollard notes, this period also marks the significant economic progress of Germany and the U.K., which seemed to outdistance the other European powers of that time. What makes Pollard's view particularly interesting is the historical context in which he wrote this analysis. In 1981, the United States and the Soviet Union were locked in a war of the superpowers, with regional wars being fought in Vietnam (1964-1975) and Afghanistan (starting in 1979). Both countries had experienced, or were about to experience, limits to imperial power.
Both countries had undergone long and painful economic stagnation. And both countries had focused on industrialization as a key to economic growth; indeed, the US and other major countries at that time were much larger industrially than they are today, when manufacturing is taken as a percent of GNP. Pollard's fundamental argument is that the changes in tariffs had significant follow-on effects on the flow of trade and the increase in nationalism amongst the nations of Europe. He focuses primarily on industrial goods, while discussing agriculture as an input to industry, rather than a significant wealth-creator of its own.
In the light of economic and nationalism lessons we've learned in the past 26 years, Pollard's viewpoint seems to have aged somewhat. The three big trends he covered very little in this chapter had a lot to do with the rise of nations and the movement of people during the period from 1870 to 1914:1. The rise of efficient agriculture in most countries, but particularly in non-European countries, which caused2. a displacement of rural workers who were no longer needed on the farms, creating a ready supply of labor for the cities (and an eager set of millions of emigrants to the New World), and engendered3.
a rise of unemployed and underemployed workers in the city whose radicalization led to major political shifts in most countries except the U. K.It is with the benefit of hindsight that one can ask Pollard to include: (1) the diminution of tariffs within countries as a part of national unity, particularly in Germany, (2) the rise of supra-national trading zones which created natural alliances, and (3) the impact of the U. S. on overall European agriculture and industry, which forced an increase in overall tariff pressures as cheaper U. S. goods and foodstuffs created concerns of oversupply and price competition throughout Europe (except with its natural trading partner, the U. K., which not coincidentally had the lowest tariffs).
With the retrospective view of China's rise in the past 20 years, we can see that agriculture is not just an input to manufacturing employees, but a significant contributor to national and global wealth, and an impetus to industrialization. One can argue with Pollard that the very availability of cheap food (due to what he noted as tremendous increases in agriculture productivity and lower shipping costs) created the labor surplus that allowed latecomers to the Industrial Revolution to participate in the overall increase of wealth in Europe and elsewhere.
Today's reader might ask two
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