Israeli Government Challenges and the New Egyptian Islamic Leadership - Assignment Example

Practical Written Assessment Intelligence Product Name Institution Course Date Israeli Government Challenges and the New Egyptian Islamic Leadership The ascending to power of the Muslim brotherhood party through the election of its candidate Mohamed Morsi has various implications for Israel as a nation especially with regard to domestic affairs of Israel, the relationship between the two nations, security of Israel and regional stability of the country. The Muslim brotherhood has always been very clear on its stand concerning Israel. The group has always been against Israel and supports terrorists’ activities against Israel. The group also advocates the cessation of Israel aggression in Palestine which is a Muslim country and it is also opposed to the occupation of Jerusalem by Israel. Several leaders of the group have been advocating for the cancellation of the peace treaty between the two states that was signed in 1979. Most of brotherhood members and leaders want Egypt to severe any relationship between the two nations (Zahid, 2010). This might spell negative implications on the peaceful existence between the two nations should the new leader implement the ideals of the group. This implies that there is a likelihood of eruption of conflict between the two nations which can result into an armed confrontation. The regional stability of Israel is at stake, with the relationship between it and Palestine already severed. Should Egypt team up with Palestine in its aggression against Israel, then the peace that has been witnessed in the country is likely to be severed. The security of the country, especially along its borders with Egypt may also be jeopardized because of the ideals held by the brotherhood, which advocate for violent acts against Israel. There is also a likelihood of any links between Egypt and Israel to be severed. For instance, the brotherhood leaders have been pushing for the removal of the Egyptian ambassador in Israel. This is a move to severe any diplomatic relationship and dealings with the Israel. This makes any peaceful existence between the nations and hence the security and regional of Israel pretty unlikely. However, the only hope for any peaceful existence between the two nations is for the leaders of the two countries to compromise on their stands and behaviors towards each other. However, this is also another farfetched theory that is unlikely to work (Tadros, 2012). This is because the leaderships of both nations have no kind words for each and any peaceful existence is always the cold peace that threatens to disintegrate at any moment. Now with the Muslim brotherhood in power, the disintegration of the peace is becoming a reality. Apart from the impending end of peaceful existence between Israel and Egypt brought about by the ascension of the hostile Muslim Brotherhood movement to power in Egypt, Israel also faces other challenges in the Middle East. One of them is the longstanding conflict between the country and Palestine. The Islamic nation of Palestine has for decades been involved in violent confrontations with Israel (Harms & Ferry, 2012). A peace agreement between the two countries has always hit a dead end, with leadership in both states unwilling to compromise their stands on certain issues. This has also been fuelled by the different religious beliefs the two regions hold. The attempts to develop a two-state solution especially in the region of British mandate of Palestine have been futile, with talks between the two parties always hitting a dead end. This longstanding conflict between the two states and the lack of a lasting solution remains a challenge facing the state of Israel. Apart from the conflict with Palestine, Israel is also in conflict with Iran over nuclear programs been carried by Iran. Israel has stated its stand on the nuclear program and has tried to compel Iran to stop its nuclear activities. However, Iran has been adamant on the issue, ignoring the threat by Israel to carry out air strikes against it (Pollack, 2011). This is also another potential source of armed conflict that Israel can get itself. If Israel carries out the strikes as it alleges, Iran is likely to retaliate. This might into an all out war between the two countries. This will ruin the peace that has been witnessed in the country as well as the regional stability that Israel has been enjoying. The economy of the country will also be affected if the war breaks out. This is not to mention the massive loss of life and property that would be experienced in the event of a war breakout. This can be especially devastating should Iran decide to unleash its nuclear weapons on Israel. There is also the issue of the internal conflicts in Syria. Syria has been involved in internal conflicts with government forces engaging in armed confrontations with rebel forces. This has resulted to massive loss of life because innocent people have been caught in the conflict between the government and the rebels. The government of Israel has been trying to resolve the conflict to no avail. This coupled with the Palestine and Iran conflicts form some of the challenges faced by the government of Israel in the Middle East. There is also the impending conflict between Syria and Israel in the sense that Israel accuses Syria of transferring advanced weapons to the Islamic militants. This has made Israel to promise attacks on Syria should it not stop providing the weapons to the Islamic militants. Furthermore, Israel government says that Syria faces potential grim consequences if it retaliates in the event of an attack (Goodarzi, 2007). The Israel government says that the transfer of weapons to the Islamic dominated region of Hezbollah would result in the destabilization and endangering of the entire region. The implication of Israel’s action, should it make good its threat, is that this will result in increased tension between the two nations which will destroy further the already strained relationship that exists between the two nations. In the recent past, Israel has carried attacks on the country with one strike hitting the Republican Guard bases and storehouses. In addition, a military research center was also hit during the air strike. This military research center is believed to have been the main site for chemical weapons. Another strike was directed at Damascus International Airport. This strike was aimed at destroying weapons which were believed to on transit from Iran on their way to Hezbollah. These attacks elicited strong condemnation of the Israel government from its Syrian counterpart, with leaders from Syria insinuating on a possibility of a war breakout between the two countries. These attacks are threatening to end the peaceful existence that has been witnessed between Israel and Syria. For instance, in a statement, the leader of Hezbollah Mr. Hassan Nasrallah and the president of Syria Mr. Assad have in recent days said that the peace that has been in existence on the Israel-Syrian border is likely to come to an end with the continued attacks from Israel. Instead, the region is likely to become a war front between the two nations. The implication of the war between the two countries is further destruction of Syria which is already destroyed by the civil war already in the country (Cordesman, Nerguizian & Popescu, 2008). For Israel, this will only help fuel the hatred that is harbored against it from the Muslim communities and this will increase their resolve to wage a war against it. With the ascension to power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, there is a high likelihood that there will be increased cooperation between Egypt and Hezbollah, which is also a Muslim dominated region. The cooperation of the two regions has various implications for the nation of Israel. One of the implications is the increased alienation of Israel in the region. Under the leadership of Hosni Mubarak, the relationship between Israel and Egypt was warm and friendly. However, the Muslim brotherhood in the country has always been against in dealings with Israel (Tadros, 2012). Since Hezbollah is also Muslim dominated, any cooperation between the two regions would imply that Israel as a Jewish nation will remain without an ally in its neighborhood. This also means that Israel will be a state that is surrounded by enemy states. This will affect its diplomatic as well as its trade relationships with the two countries. Hostility between Israel and the two countries would adversely affect their relationships and this will mean minimal dealing will take place among the three regions. The cooperation between the two regions has also security implications for Israel. With Israel carrying out offensive attacks against Hezbollah, the cooperation between Hezbollah and Egypt might compel Egypt to also join the war. This will pose a great security threat to Israel. All economic dealings between Israel and Egypt are also likely to be severed in the event of cooperation between Hezbollah and Egypt. During Mubarak’s reign, there was a good relationship between Egypt and Israel. Despite many conflicts between the two countries, the good relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Hosni Mubarak ensured a good relationship and successful economic engagements between the two countries (Harms & Ferry, 2012). This made Egypt the only Arab country with good relationship with Israel. However, this relationship was not without a lot of resistance from the Muslim fraternity led by the Muslim brotherhood. Therefore with the shift of power to the brotherhood, the relationship that existed is likely to be severed and any economic engagement between the two countries will practically end. Egypt is more likely to shift its allegiance to other Arab countries like Palestine and Syria. These are countries that have always been against Israel and if Egypt joins with them, then the relationship between Israel and Egypt will definitely end. This means that Israel will no longer receive any energy supply from Egypt and this will adversely affect its economy. This makes any cooperation between Hezbollah and Egypt bad news for Israel. There are various consequences that may result due to Islamist cooperation in the region. One of the consequences is increased polarization in the region in the sense that states will be highly polarized in terms of whether they support the Israel led group or the Islamist group. This polarization is likely to culminate into a conflict between the two factions. There will also increased aggression of the Muslim world against Israel. There is a long enduring history of continued hostility between Muslims and Jews. This is one of the reasons for the long conflict between Israel and Palestine (Pollack, 2011). However, due to the military superiority of Israel in the region, Palestine has never been able to subdue Israel. However, this has never stopped the conflict between the two regions. Cooperation between any two or more Islamic countries in the region will therefore spell trouble for Israel. This is because in the event of war between Israel and one of the Muslim countries, the other partners are likely to come in to aid their ally. This will in turn also attract the countries allied to Israel and this might result into a very big war. Israel is also likely to be adversely affected economically by the Muslim cooperation in the region. This is because a cooperation of Islamists implies that Israel will lose some of its economic allies from the Muslim side. The involvement of the cooperation with Israel is pretty unlikely because of the longstanding hostility between Israel and most of the Muslim countries. The Islamist cooperation in the region will also strengthen the economies of the countries involved in the cooperation. For a long time, the Islamic countries in the Middle East have been fairing poorly economically because of the poor economic cooperation among the countries. Any cooperation among them will therefore mean that business among them will flourish. This will help boost the economy of the said countries (Harms & Ferry, 2012). However, this cooperation might mean a different story for the United States and Israel. For instance, the Islamic cooperation might decide to severe links with the countries. This is more likely because of the strained relationships that exist between the two countries and most Muslim countries. If that becomes the case in the event of cooperation among the Islamist nations, then Israel and the United States will be adversely affected economically. This is because the two countries depend mainly on the Middle East countries for their energy supply. The Middle East is the main provider of oil in the world because of their large oil reservoirs. The United States especially has been benefitting greatly by doing business with the Middle East. The economy of the United States depends largely on the oil supplied by the Middle East. This therefore implies that if the supply is cut, the US economy is likely to plunge. The same applies to Israel which is likely to be hit harder by the cooperation because of its hostile engagements with most Muslim countries, which include Syria, Palestine and Iran. Israel has always been a thorn to these countries (Pollack, 2011). For instance, the conflict between Israel and Palestine has spanned decades and there has never been a lasting peace truce between the two nations. Any peaceful talks have always ended into a stalemate, with leaders from both unwilling to relent on their positions and ideals which sharply contrast with each other. Another source of conflict has been the city of Jerusalem, with each country claiming ownership of the city. Any attempt to have a peaceful coexistence between the Jews and the Muslims has always been futile with both communities ending up in conflict (Kemp, 2013). Israel has been at loggerheads with Iran about the possession of nuclear weapons by Iran, with the former promising to carry out air strikes on Iran if it does not stop its nuclear activities. Syria, on the other hand, has already been a victim of Israel with the latter already having carried out attacks on the country over allegations of Syria supplying weapons to the Hezbollah which is purported to be one of the sworn enemies of Israel. The cooperation of the Islamist countries will far reaching effects on the local as well as the global economies. The cooperation has both the negative and positive sides on the world’s economy. For instance, the cooperation will help stabilize the violent prone area. Conflicts among the Muslim countries will cease should there be cooperation (Pollack, 2011). This will result in the flourishing of the local economy as business among the Muslim countries will stabilize. This will also help in the improvement of the global economy as this will make it possible for countries to engage in trade with the Muslim countries of the presence of peace. The increased involvement of countries with the oil rich nations will definitely help in the improvement of the global economy (Kemp, 2013). However, this is only possible if the Muslim agree to deal with other non-Muslim countries in trade and business. However, if the Muslim countries decide to severe relations with the non-Muslim countries, then this will negatively impact on the global economy. The global economy would also be affected if the countries use their economic prowess that would be brought about by the cooperation to launch offensive attacks against nations like Israel. This is because this would result to a war that would affect the world economy. Iranian Military Support Government to Syrian Leadership within Current Civil War Iran and Syria are very close allies. This closeness was brought about by convergence of their interests. For instance, both Syria and Iran resent the US and Israel, both had a common enemy in form of Saddam Hussein and both countries support Palestine’s aggression against Israel. These common causes and interests have helped foster the good relationship between the two countries (Goodarzi, 2007). The alliance between the countries has been in existence since 1979. The relationship has resulted in a number of benefits for both countries. One of the benefits is the strengthening of military in both countries. The Syrian government has benefitted from the relationship by receiving sophisticated military from its ally, Iran. On the part of Iran, it has benefitted through the massive investment in Syria. The Syrian government has been assisted by Iran mainly in the military department. For instance, in 2011, during the uprising in Syria, the Iranian government gave Syria riot control equipment, oil and intelligence monitoring techniques. It also helped fund a military in the country. Iran has a lot of influence both politically and economically in the Middle East and the gulf countries. For instance, the country holds the Hormuz strait, owns 30% of oil in the region and has the largest military troop in the region. This makes it to wield a lot of power in the region both politically and economically (Goodarzi, 2007). Iranian military capacity in support of Syria is a 50,000 force that is aimed at helping the regime of Syrian president Assad. The continued support has consequences especially on the Syrian government. One of the consequences is the overdependence of Syria on Iran. Another consequence is that this can result in Israel indicting Syria also and this can lead to Syria being attacked. This has already been witnessed in the attack carried out by Israel on Syria due to allegations that Iran is using Syria to transport weapons to Hezbollah. Radio Conversation between Two North Korean Colonels against USA The intercepted radio conversation between two North Korean army men, Hu Tying and Lee Chung, against the US shows the increased tension that exists between the United States and North Korea. North Korea, through its leader Kim Jong Un who has repeatedly issued threats the US and south Korea that he would use his military to attack them. To make good his threat, he launched an attack on South Korea. This shows the kind of power struggle that is in existence in the current global system (Zhu, 2012). However, the US retaliated by saying it was also launch an offensive attack on North Korea if it attacks. The US has also asked china to severe its links with North Korea. This is a move to destabilize the country and make it tow the line according to the requirement of the UN. However, North Korea has been adamant in its resolve to carry out attacks on the US. If North Korea makes good its threat, then a war is eminent. This will adversely the world economy as well as result to lose of lives and property. There is also a likelihood that it can result into an all out war with other countries drawn into the war. Countries allied to both countries may be drawn into the war in the name of offering aid to their ally. This may result into dire consequences that will impact negatively on the world economy. References Cordesman, A. H., Nerguizian, A., & Popescu, I. C. (2008). Israel and Syria: The military balance and prospects of war. Westport, Conn: Praeger Security International. Goodarzi, J. M. (2007). Syria and Iran: Diplomatic alliance and power politics in the Middle East. London: Tauris Academic Studies. Harms, G., & Ferry, T. M. (2012). The Palestine-Israel conflict: A basic introduction. London: Pluto Press. Kemp, G. (2013). War with Iran: Political, military, and economic consequences. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. Pollack, K. M. (2011). The Arab awakening: America and the transformation of the Middle East. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Tadros, M. (2012). The Muslim Brotherhood in Contemporary Egypt: Democracy Redefined or Confined? London: Routledge Zahid, M. (2010). The Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's succession crisis: The politics of liberalisation and reform in the Middle East. London: Tauris Academic Studies. Zhu, Z. (2012). North Korea under Kim Jong-Un: An initial assessment. Singapore: East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. Read More