Politics of Interdependence - Essay Example

WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT ON LABOR IF TURKEY JOINS THE EUROPEAN UNION/IMPACT ON EU MEMBERS IF TURKEY BECOMES A MEMBER WHAT WOULDBE THE IMPACT ON LABOR IF TURKEY JOINS THE EUROPEAN UNION/IMPACT ON EU MEMBERS IF TURKEY BECOMES A MEMBER The decision to enter the European Union was made by Turkey in 1963. Forty two years passed but there were not any considerable changes made in order to join the biggest European confederation. Turkey only remains to be a potential member and guest in the future program of European Union expansion. Recent political and economical changes in the EU had shown that membership of countries with developing economies and with standards of living which are several times lower than in major European countries is not welcomed right now. Political crisis in European parliament and decreasing Euro exchange rate (-12% in 2005) had shown that Europe is not ready to accept a lot of new members now as Euro-economy may enter crisis. Euro constitution voting had shown the same reaction as three major European states: France, Belgium and Netherlands voted against Euro constitution. Analysis shows that such a response was resulted by geopolitical changes in Eastern Europe as in the year of 2004 Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia proclaimed their decision to enter European Union in the nearest future. These three countries have developing economies with high economical growth rate of 8-12% which is one of the key economical factors for entering the EU, where economical growth is very moderate (approx. 2-5%). Membership in the European Union will mean remarkable growth of investments, free trade with Europe and economical stability. But the benefits of the EU from the membership of these countries are questioned. The year of 2004 was one of the most difficult, as EU was enlarged by Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia, Baltic states. Besides, negotiations about future membership of Romania and Bulgaria provoke a lot of fear in eyes of European conservatives. Debates about possible membership of Turkey in the European Union have been continuing for nearly forty years, as there are a lot of obstacles for Turkey to enter the European Union even in the new century. First of all Turkey was an agricultural country with undeveloped heavy ad textile industry, which was traditionally cottage industry scattered countrywide. Besides, there exists a vivid contrast between relatively developed coastline regions with tourist infrastructure and remote inland mountainous rural areas with extensive undeveloped agriculture. Even though that Turkey began to show economical progress starting since middle 1990's and had tamed high inflation rate, a lot of economical problems remain to be unsolved. Another very important obstacles are cultural and religious difference with traditional European and Western values, supplemented by constant instability in the neighboring states : Iraq, Iran and Balkans. Muslim Turks who posses different cultural and religious values find passive opposition and rejection in today's Europe, which became multi-cultural and multi-national in relatively short period of time in 1990's after the collapse of Pro-Soviet bloc of Warsaw Pact members and growing instability in North Africa (Libya, Morocco and Algeria) and Middle East. Immigrants, who occupied the major low qualification jobs started to be stereotyped, and it's even used in today's official press: "It was as depressing as it was predictable that this first spasm in response to the treaty's rejection in France and the Netherlands would be succeeded by calls for a halt to the Union's expansion. If French voters were living in fear of losing their livelihoods to Polish plumbers and the impeccably liberal Dutch were running scared of Islam, how could politicians contemplate a new influx of Croatian electricians and Turkish carpenters" 1 Perhaps, it would be incorrect to reject and deny all positive changes in Turkey and deny its role in the international trade and trade with countries of the European Union, but at the same time it would be absurd to deny a set of interstate problems traditionally faced by Turkey: high poverty level, unbearable conditions of childish labor, existing oppression of national minorities political opposition (especially of Kurds), undeveloped structure of democratic institutes which do not meet European standards of democracy. A special article in the obstacles of potential membership in the European Union is Turkey's loyalty to Muslim civilization. It's very important issue, as Turkey nevertheless is a country which always has a potential of changing it's democratic pro-western ideology on Muslim extremism and there exists a number of premises for such possibility: proximity to such Muslim countries as Iran and Iraq, a number of camps for refugees from Middle East countries, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. As BBC News reports: "There is significant public opposition in Austria, Germany, France and Spain. Some opponents object to Europe incorporating a Muslim nation, and one that is geographically mostly in Asia, noting that it would increase the EU's proportion of Muslims from 3% to 20% overnight. They say it would extend the EU's borders to Iraq, Iran and Syria, threatening stability. Its size and poverty could also drain EU resources, they argue, and there could be a wave of Turkish migrants across Europe."2 Besides, Turkish pro-religious elite circles financed Chechen separatists and Vakhabits in Northern Caucasus. It's also important to notice that Turkey is often used as a buffer zone for illegal traffic of drugs and weapon from Middle east and as a buffer zone for illegal immigrants from Asia and Caucasus countries: "When considering waves of international migration, while Turkey is a source country, its role as a transit route is more prominent. Turkey is the scene of intense illegal migration traffic due to its proximity to targeted European countries, its physical condition and its long and hardly manageable land and sea borders. For citizens of Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, India, Sri Lanka, Syria, China, Bangladesh, and Palestine, it is a transit route, while for citizens of African countries such as Ethiopia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia and former Eastern bloc countries of Moldavia, Ukraine, and Russia, it is both a target country and a transit spot."3 Other arguments include such characteristic of Turkey as big population. Specialists in European Union are more sure that Europe will be able to "digest" relatively small population of Romania and Bulgaria, than nearly 55 millions of Turks. It's a very important argument as cheaper labor force from Turkey will create unemployment among native Europeans especially in France. Besides, stagnation in major European countries and economical crisis will have little to offer to new immigrants and it will only turn uneasy current situation in European economy from bad to worse: "Turkey's large population and relatively backward economy is a source of concern for Europeans due to possible Turkish migration to Europe. But the bloc has already made clear that it has no intention of allowing the free circulation of Turkish labor immediately, even if the country becomes a full member."4 Besides, major European countries such as Germany and France have a big percentage of Turkish immigrants today. It is resulted by historically favorable conditions for immigrants from Turkey: "Ankara Association Agreement of 1963 and its components have put Turkish migrants in a more favorable position than most of the other non-EU migrants. This has created a sort of 'intermediate' legal regime applicable for Turkish immigrants across the EU."5 Despite relatively favorable conditions of interaction with the EU countries if compared to the new members from Eastern Europe, progress of Turkey was relatively small. High inflation rate, political instability and ethnic conflicts with Kurds in the East prevented Turkey from graduate development and restructuring its agricultural economy into an industrial one with developed service sector. Turkey remains to be a risky investment for the EU and in order to understand the nature of risks one can analyze the following data of GDP growth: 7.4% (2002), -7.5% (2001), 7.9% (2002), 5.8 (2003), 8.0% (2004)6 . Despite the considerable investments growth in the year of 2004, it remains to be insufficient for the economy of such size. Perhaps, the main achievement of Turkish government in recent years is taming of inflation rate from 65% in the year of 1999 to some 12 % in 2004. The economical performance of 2004, which is characterized by low inflation rate and GDP growth of 8% opened a possibility for Turkey to enter the EU, but at the same time specialists refuse to make any sober and realistic forecasts for this country predicting its membership only in the year of 2015. Turkey has to promote a wide packet of reforms in administration and democratization of its public institutions in order to meet the requirement of the EU. Even though that a lot of specialists agree that Turkey has more rights for membership in the EU than other Eastern Europe countries and Romania (one of the poorest countries of Europe) due to a long history of partnership and trade, the digits of Turkish foreign debt which is nearly 75% of GNP prevent from negotiations in close future(For example foreign debt of Romania is only 18.5% , foreign debt of Bulgaria and Croatia are approx. 50% of GDP, but these countries have a higher potential to pay it back). Optimistic forecasts on Turkey's membership in the EU are based on the share which Turkey has in mutual trade with the EU. Turkey has established customs union with the EU, which promoted the growth of mutual trade moving Turkey from the 9th biggest partner in the year of 1990 to the 7th biggest partner five years later. Turkey is also one of the biggest exporters to the EU (moving from the 17th in 1990 to the 13th in the year of 2004). Mutual trade with EU at the same time allows Turkey to keep it's trade saldo with EU positive (Exports to the EU: 54% of the total; Imports from the EU: 46.7 % of the total). 7 EU is making rather remarkable financing (around $1.2 billion in the period of 1996-2004) to Turkish economy directed on realization of programs which will restructure and reorganize economic sector, business administration, etc. in order to meet the requirements of EU membership. EU countries which are situated in the Mediterranean region (Italy, Greece)also are optimistic about Turkey's membership in the EU, as they have tight trade ties with Turkey and participate in international projects together. For example : "Turkey's EU participation would also boost Turkish-Italian commercial ties, Fini said. Italy and Turkey are important trading partners, with annual trade of about $11.5 billion Italian companies have recently invested in energy, banking and telecommunications in Turkey. The two countries also plan to encourage greater cooperation among small and medium-sized companies, Fini added."8 Understandably, it's quite risky for the EU to make any solid decision about Turkey's membership in the EU in close future as there remains to be a number of obstacles, which prevent from it. But none denies that Turkey will join the EU one day and that it'll take place even earlier than in the year of 2015 if economical and geopolitical climate will remain favorable in Europe. Everyone in the EU understands that among all current candidates to enter the EU Turkey has the longest reputation of being an important trade partner with European countries, its economy had never experienced a strong pressure from the government (as it took place in Romania, Bulgaria and other countries which joined the EU in 2004 ad were the members of Warsaw Pact). Besides, it had proved loyalty to Western values by long-time membership in NATO, serving as a guarantor of peace in such uneasy region as Middle East, preventing growth of Islam extremism. Turkey continues to be a guarantor of peace in Middle Asia region promoting its influence on the politics of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It's very important for preventing peace in the region and for creating power balance with Iran and Russian Federation. Turkey's membership in the EU will also ensure oil supplies to Europe as in this case the realization of today's project of construction a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey through Georgia will be a reality. It will provide Europe with cheaper Caspian oil from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan ; reducing dependence from Russian suppliers.9 This project will not only provide direct oil supplies to Europe but will also enlarge economic cooperation with Middle Asia countries and will promote economical and political stability in the region: "Turks see the EU as a tool to bring stability to Turkey. Turks, who see economic and political instability as the main threat to their welfare, continue to see the union as a way to resolve their most important problem. Thirty percent believed the EU would be a force for stability, while 19 percent said with EU membership foreign investment in Turkey would increase. Economic growth, democratization, a more secure and free Turkey, and lower unemployment were cited as other benefits of membership."10 But from the other hand there exists a number of problems which create obstacle for possible membership in the EU. Besides those, mentioned above, there exists a very serious historical problem with deep ethical roots. It's genocide of Armenian people in 1916. Turkey has not yet admitted it, and for may members in the Euro parliament it's essential condition for joining the EU, as it'll prove the triumph of democratic values in Turkey and its ability to admit mistakes from the past. To admit genocide will also mean to pay compensations to the victims and descendants of victims according to international law norms. In this case compensations may reach the sum of billions of dollars (as the number of victims was nearly one million). The solution of this problem is very important for Armenia, who has a close border with Turkey. Nevertheless, even officials in Armenia want to see Turkey as a equal member of the EU. References: 1. Cohn, Theodore Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice Longman; 2 ed., 2002. 2. Philip Stephens "Philip Stephens: Turkey cannot be wished away" Financial Times, 1 September 2005. 3. "Q&A: Turkey and the EU" BBC News, UK edition Wednesday, 6 October, 2004. 4. Dr. Mehmet zcan "The Effect of Turkish Accession to EU on EU's Illegal Migration Problem" Journal of Turkish Daily 16.December 2004 p.11 5. "Turkey should not be punished for EU crisis" Turkish Daily News;17 July , 2005. 6. Dr. Bulent Cicekli "Legal Integration of Turkish Immigrants under the Turkish-EU Association Law" Journal of Turkish Daily; 11 February 2002 p.21 7. "Turkey: Economic profile" available from http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/turkey/economic_profile.htm; accessed 3 September 2005. 8. "Turkey: Economic profile" available from http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/turkey/economic_profile.htm accessed 3 September 2005. 9. "Turkey should not be punished for EU crisis" Turkish Daily News; Jul 17, 2005 10. Bruce Kuniholm Turkey's Accessing to the EU: Differences in European ad American Attitudes, and the Challanges for Turkey Terry Sanford university of public policy, (Duke Working Papers series, 2001),27. 11. "Turks see France as main obstacle to Turkey's EU accession" Turkish Daily News; June 28, 2005 Read More