Analysis of the Present and the Future Based on History - Essay Example

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Khanna is the director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation, a public policy institute. According to his sweeping and audacious survey of contemporary geopolitics, in the book “The Second World” he argues that the United States, the European…
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Analysis of the Present and the Future Based on History Mr. Khanna is the director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation, a public policy institute. According to his sweeping and audacious survey of contemporary geopolitics, in the book “The Second World” he argues that the United States, the European Union and China dare not call themselves imperial powers as they are busy reshaping the globe to suit their interests. The game is stirring, with the natural resources and potential wealth of countries like Ukraine, Turkey and Brazil as the trophy. The book revolves around the powerful thesis: three superpowers have emerged with a ravenous appetite for energy and natural resources during the postcolonial, post-cold-war era. He predicts that no shots will be fired, instead the three imperial rivals will woo and coerce, relying on distinct styles. The United States bids military protection, along with the promise of democracy and human rights. The European Union hangs down the prospect of affiliation with the world’s most successful economic club. China talks trade, investment and infrastructure projects with its would-be client states. (Khanna 09)
Mr Kotkin is an optimist urban scholar. In stark contrast to Mr Khanna’s “Second World”, Mr. Kotkin in his book "The Next Hundred Million," looked deep into the opportunities America has to maintain it rule as a world power in the future. He shed light on the facts like Americas population is expected to expand dramatically in coming decades and points to a slowly rising birth rate and to the continuing in-migration of young workers from poorer countries. Apart from this he mentioned that most of Americas population growth between 2000 and 2050 will be in its racial minorities providing it a wide ethnic diversity unmatched to any other developed regions in the world.
Mr. Kotkin in translates population growth into economic vitality, the capacity to create wealth, raise the standard of living and meet the burdens of future commitments. Thus in relative terms a country with a youthful demographic enjoys a big advantage over its global counterparts. In the upcoming decades most of the developed countries in both Europe and Asia will transform into old-age homes due to the stagnant population growth. And thus the state apparatus of such economies will face crushing pension obligations and without the young workers cost couldn’t be defrayed. (Kotkin 11)
In one sense the two books contradict each other, Mr. Khanna in the “Second World" argues that the United States is in decline as a World power. He envisaged that among the superpowers, the big loser could be the United States because he described United States as naïve and arrogant, a muscle-bound superpower searching for a brain and practices a “diplomacy by dilettantism” unworthy of a great power. In his polemical conclusion he did a little unhinged analysis of the ills afflicting the United States, which, by his description, faces a highly uncertain future with economic decline and waning international influence distinct possibilities. United States would be left as one of the several competing brands on the catwalk of credibility from a position of world dominance. Whereas on the other hand Mr. Kotkin in “The Next Hundred Million” argues that the United States can maintain its preeminent position in the world, keeping in view the social order in the United States. He predicts that Europe and Asia will decline and America will not only thrive but will emerge as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history. He envisions America to expand, brown, adapt and thrive in the upcoming decades.
Joel Kotkin, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, Penguin (Non-Classics), 2011
Parag Khanna, The Second World: How Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global Competition in the Twenty-first Century , Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2009 Read More
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