Path to 270 by Ruy Texeira and John Halpin of the pro-Democratic Party organization Center for American Progress - Essay Example

Texeria and Haplin conclude that the two forces that are most likely to determine the direction of the 2012 election would be the changing population balance of the U.S electorate, and the objective reality and the voter perception of the economy. The democrats have a constant support from the communities of colour, single, highly educated women, millennial generation voters, secular voters and educated white voters. With this support, the party has grown in strength; however, the republican comprises of the older whiter more rural and evangelical voters.

The republicans face a shrinking electorate creating a less serious political landscape of the country (2). Although the democrats have a demographic strength, they still have democratic weaknesses (3). The economic distress facing a larger area of America and the inability of the Obama administration to provide a lasting solution to this predicament have led a large population of the Americans to doubt the leadership of the Obama administration. The Obama administration faces the issue of unemployment, which decreases their chance of getting hold of the presidency for a second term.

The opposition party: the republicans have the upper hand in having an electorate that is older conservative and less diverse. The republican vote portrays an even distribution that explains the victory attained in the Rust Belt states and the contested southern states such as Virginia and Florida. The republicans gather support from the white working class voters, the independent voters and men who are against the democrats due to the economy (Texeria & Haplin 4). Obamas’ re-election depends on two strategies: holding onto his 2008 white college graduate support, which could translate to a landslide defeat due to the high proportions of white working class voters.

His second option would be to holding his slippage between the two groups, which would give a possible victory