The demographic imbalance in the UAE and Security Threats - Research Paper Example

? The Demographic Imbalance in the UAE and Security Threats Introduction The United Arabs Emirates population composition represents a unique phenomenon unlike any other in the world. Unlike many countries, the national citizens in the country constitute the minority. Though other countries such as Qatar and Kuwait have low levels of national citizens, UAE transcends all by leading the pack. UAE national citizens comprise only 12% of the total population, the lowest in the world (Al-Khouti, 2010; Randeree, 2012). This has given rise to a plethora of debates regarding the impact that the dominance of foreign nationals has posited to the country’s political, social, economic and identity related aspects of life. This paper analyses the demographic imbalance in the UAE and the security threats that it poses. The paper posits that the demographic imbalance in the UAE has become one of the challenging problems that pose a threat to the social, economic, and political future of the country. The paper first looks at the demographic data with regard to nationalities, then proceeds to analyse how the demographic imbalance threatens local community identity, social structure, economic and political future of the UAE. Demographic data with regard to nationalities and gender Since 1975, the UAE population composition has experienced rapid transitions. The population has grown more than 10 times over this period with the greatest population growth being that of foreign nationals (Al-Suwaidi, 2011). At 12% of the total population (Al-Khouri, 2010), the number of nationals is extremely low compared to that of expatriates, and certain nationalities are predominant within the demographic structure. Analysing the most recent estimated data for 2010 over a five year period, UAE population was estimated to be 8.5 million in 2010 of which only 950,000 were national citizens while 7.3 million were accounted for by non national residents. In 2005, the nationals were estimated to be around 818,000, which implies that the national population growth was at a 3% growth rate. On the other hand, the foreign nationals who were 3.3 million in 2005, more than doubled over the five year period to 7.3 million (National Bureau of Statistics, 2012; UAE Defence & Security Report , 2011). Table 1: UAE Population data 2005-2010   2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 UAE Nationals 0.82 million 0.85 million 0.88 million 0.9 million 0.93 million 0.95 million Foreign Nationals 3.3 million 4.2 million 5.3 million 7.17 million 7.2 million 7.3 million Figure 1: UAE Citizens versus Foreign citizens Figure 2: Population growth trends 2005-2010; UAE nationals versus foreign nationals (data in millions) It has been predicted that if appropriate correctional measures and policies are not taken to address the trend effectively, then UAE national population is further projected to fall relative to the foreign nationals, grossly impacting the demographic imbalance (Al-Khouri, 2010). With the Economist Intelligence unit (EIU, 2010) having forecasted that the population in the Gulf region will be growing by a third over the next eight years till 2020, this poses a serious challenge to the development of the region in the future and requires strong policies to address the imbalances. Analysing the population composition based on nationalities as presented by Randeree (2009), it can be noted that certain foreign nationals are more predominant than others. The leading nationals are Indians at approximately 36.5% of the population, while the Arabs from other regions and Pakistani nationals follow at 12.7% each. UAE also exhibits a unique structure in its demography with respect to gender - unlike most countries, Emirati male population exceeds the female population, thus by 2010 population estimates there were 479,109 males, while females stood at 468,888 (Randeree, 2012; National Bureau of Statistics, 2012). This implies that ratio of male to female is 1.02 males for every female. The Emirati male to female ratio has been rising over the five year period, with the male population being higher than female. This reflects a declining fertility rate within the population, which is a critical factor in enabling demographic balance in the future. Demographic imbalance and threat to identity and social structure With nationals in the UAE constituting the minority, and the foreign nationals constituting one of the most diverse populations in the world, great concern has been expressed as regards the erosion of the local culture and identity. Higher foreign population results in an increased permeating effect in the interactions between locals and non locals in ways that lead to decentralisation and dislocation of identities (Spiess, 2010; Al-Khouri, 2010). This has the potential of altering patterns of social interaction and actions in essence impacting the very essence of the social fabric. Dr. Al Suwaidi, the director of Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR) and a well respected academic has been very vocal as to the unfolding impact of the demographical imbalance on both the UAE social fabric and identity. Notably, while UAE adopted the Emiratisation program over two decades ago to enhance the Emirati population in the workplace and foster the Emirati social structure (Randeree, 2009), Dr. Al Suwaidi notes that these have not been very successful. Instead, the possibility of a highly multicultural society is perhaps in the making, and the Emirati could potentially be losing their national identity (Abdulkhaleq, 2007). These views are supported by Mr. Najib Al-Shamsi, the Director of Studies and Research unit at the GCC General Secretariat, who notes that UAE national identity and culture is under threat. This is attributed to higher levels of non-national residents in the country, globalization impact, increased materialistic tendencies among Emiratis and growing influence of foreign culture, particularly the western culture, on the Emirati identity (Al-Shamsi, 2009). A key notable example is given by declining level of the Arabic language which is crucial for defining a social and cultural identity. With UAE under increasing global pressure to grant non-national expatriate populations citizenship rights (Spiess, 2010), the UAE citizen population perceives this as an invasion in their principles and the fact that they are national minorities further exacerbates the threat of their social structures and national identity in the face of higher diversity. Recently though, UAE and other GCC countries have devised a newer strategy for developing a cohesive national and cultural identity. This has seen the UAE establish a national ID program (Al-Khouri, 2010), to accurately monitor local population trends. Demographic Imbalance and threat to economic future of UAE Analysing the growth trend of the foreign population with respect to the economic growth and development of the country, a positive pattern can clearly be noted. This clearly implies that the population growth in the country is driven more by economic development rather than by the demographic factors of mortality and fertility. While the number of Emirati males were more than Emirati females by 1.02, the number of foreign males was almost triple that of foreign females (National Bureau of Statistics, 2012). This implies that at any time, the gender ratio, and age compositions within an economy are often strongly influence by the structure of the economy. The essence of more males among the non national population reflects the important role that they play in transportation, construction and manufacturing industries. The overdependence on foreign labour though poses serious economic risks to the country. No other nation globally relies more on higher levels of ‘temporary’ non-national labour force than do the UAE. Only 12% of workforce in UAE comprises Emirati citizens (Forstenlechner & Rutledge 2011). The Emiratisation program was developed to enhance employment opportunities for the educated Emirati nationals entering the market. The rapidity with which the economy has grown though outpaced the level of skill development in the country resulting in hiring a greater number of expatriate worker and increased unemployment of Emirati youth. Most private sector employees avoid hiring Emirati’s for reasons ranging from higher wages expectations to skills and experience (Mashood, & Bal 2009). And therefore, Emiratisation program is much more practised by the government institutions than the private sector despite regulations that are in place for the private sector to do so (Al-Suwaidi, 2011). There have been protests by nationals for the government to increase the number of government jobs in order to reduce unemployment rates of UAE nationals. This clearly shows that while the demographic imbalance may be an emotional issue, its impact on unemployment and the future state of development in UAE is a rising concern. The demographic imbalance threatens the political future of UAE The UAE has been facing increased international pressure to allow foreign expatriate workers full rights of citizens. With the expatriate population overshadowing that of locals, this could potentially pose a risk on the political future of Kingdom (The Emirates centre for Strategic Studies and Research, 2009; Al-Khouri, 2010). This is because as foreign nationals have more rights, most likely they would also seek political representation. This would not only put the essence of the UAE ‘kingdomhood’ at risk, but with the UAE indigenous nationals being a minority, most of the political representation would probably tend to be foreign. This would impact the political structure, policies and legislations that define the very essence of UAE politics. Aside from this, UAE’s military strength may be compromised. Though the number of males reaching military age annually is quite high, only a few of these are actually Emiratis who can be drafted into military service. The last taken census of the military personnel was conducted in 2005; the military were composed of 59,000 personnel with 30% of these representing expatriates (Global Security Organisation, 2012; Foley, 1999). Since then, the level of foreign nationals as compared to Emiratis has risen in the country, and therefore possibly in the Emirati army as well. This grossly impacts the very essence of national defence in the country, especially if the percentage of foreign nationals would keep rising in the army. The heavy reliance of Emirati army on foreign armies for training and various aspects of its foreign defence policies (Cordesman, 2000; Global Security Organisation, 2012) clearly demonstrates the need for the UAE to reduce the demographic imbalance and develop military skills that are unique to UAE. Though UAE’s military structure and foreign relations give it a strategic advantage, addressing key internal weaknesses resulting from the demographic imbalance is critical for UAE in understanding both its internal strengths and weaknesses. Conclusion With the level of demographic imbalance between the Emirati nationals and the non nationals continually rising, the security threats that this poses to the UAE kingdom are issues of great concern. Notably, the demographic imbalances threaten the social values and interactions of the Emirati as they increasingly become eroded. The increased fusion of foreign cultures with Emirati culture, which is in minority, threatens the national and social identity of Emirati as well as results in erosion of significant identity factors such as the Arabic language. The demographic imbalance makes UAE over dependent on foreign labour. The high levels of employment of non nationals at lower wage rates have eroded Emirati wage rates resulting in high unemployment for the Emirati nationals. Finally, the continued calls for increased rights to the expatriate community might lead to enabling them to take up citizenship which would grossly impact the political structure of UAE, resulting in reduced power held by the Emiratis and thus revolutionising the politics within the country. It is therefore imperative that lasting effective solutions be arrived at in addressing the demographic imbalance in UAE. References Abdulkhaleq, A. (2007). UAE’s Demographic imbalance. Gulf News.com. 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