How the Increase in the Price Would Be Affecting Tobacco Sales in Saudi Arabia - Research Proposal Example

Introduction: More than one billion people in the world smoke tobacco and the expectation is for this number to increase to 1.6 billion in 2025. About 5 million people die annually because of tobacco products. Furthermore, this number is expected to increase up to 10 million by 2020 (Guindon, Perucic, Boisclari, 2003). This is not the case in the developed countries for many reasons. The developing countries including the Middle East region are the highest consumers. Researchers show that the populations of the developing countries are most affected by smoking, which imposes enormous costs in terms of morbidity, health care expenses and economic impact within the individual level (tobacco prices and public health, 2000). One of the most important reasons is the high price of tobacco. Countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have high taxation on tobacco products. The taxation on tobacco products in these countries has increased gradually by the last decade. These countries use the tobacco taxation in many fields related to tobacco control such as: campaigns and treatment. The overwhelming research illustrates that the increasing prices of tobacco goods is the most effective method to reduce the smoking prevalence (Gilbert A, Cornuz J, 2003). Although it is socially unacceptable, the presence of the smoking trend in Saudi Arabia is increasing slowly (Jamal S Jarallah, 1999). Students and young are the most affected group among the society with 16.5 percent and 15 percent are ex smokers. Although most of them know that smoking is harmful ( Bassiony, 2009). The price of tobacco is considerably low. The taxation on tobacco products has not changed since the law established by the agreement of the gulf countries and remains on 5% only. This price is one of the lowest in the world although the number of smokers is increasing (Guindon, Tobin, and Yach, 2002). Research Topic ,research statement and Justification The main aim of the study would be to understand how the increase in the price would be affecting the tobacco sales in Saudi Arabia. The reason for undertaking this study has been that the smoking price in Saudi Arabia has been low and that could be termed as the primary objective when young people would be taking interest in smoking. The Saudi economy has seen tremendous growth and this has been witnessed from the period of 2002- 2008. (Euromonitor International's,2009)The Saudi Arabian tobacco industry has been growing in both volume and value. (Euromonitor International's,2009)There has been rise in the population and rising consumer incomes, with increased overseas people coming to Saudi Arabia and tobacco companies are increasingly benefiting from a rise in sales. The rising disposable income has increasingly pushed up sales of premium brands.( Euromonitor International's,2009) The Saudi Arabia’s had signed FCTC (Framework Convention on Tobacco Control) in 2004, and after that Saudi government had decided to impose a law banning smoking in public places.( Euromonitor International's,2009) Although the law is in place, it is not fully enforced by the authorities. Sales of tobacco in the country have still been on stronger note.( Euromonitor International's,2009) There has been total ban on the local production of tobacco products in Saudi Arabia and that had meant that there have been opportunities for multinational companies. (Euromonitor International's,2009)Saudi Arabia has been ranked fourth in the world in terms of cigarette imports, and companies like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco has been leading the imports and sales in the country.( Euromonitor International's,2009) International manufacturers continue to sell their products in Saudi Arabia through their exclusive agents which import the products and sell them through various channels.( Euromonitor International's,2009) It is very difficult to get a new licence for the importation of tobacco brands; existing agents would be able to market new brands from leading manufacturers. Cigars and cigarillos have been seeing growth in 2008 thanks to favourable economic conditions. There has been a report that the Saudi Ministry of Health had launched a lawsuit against international tobacco companies in the year 2008. (Donna Abu-nasr,2008) Health chiefs have been demanding compensation of $2.6 billion and an annual compensation of $133 million for the expenditures that has been incurred for the treatment of smokers. (Donna Abu-nasr,2008) Anti-smoking clinics has been opened in various parts of different cities in the kingdom and that has been part of the ministry’s efforts to help smokers to give up the addiction. (Donna Abu-nasr,2008)The lawsuit has been considered as one of the world's biggest damage claims and the aim of has been to tackle smoking through the courts for the first time to the Middle East, and smoking has been chronic and governments has been using law suit to reduce the habit. The suit has been targeting the local agents than the international tobacco companies as the agents have been the main source for bringing cigarettes into the country. (Donna Abu-nasr,2008) In Saudi Arabia, it has been estimated that a quarter of the kingdom's 27.6 million people smoke. A 2007 Health Ministry survey of 3,829 intermediate school students across the country has found that 1 in 5 students use cigarettes and 3 out of 10 live in homes where others smoke in their presence. (Donna Abu-nasr,2008) Research Objectives The study would be covering the role of tobacco price and consumption in Saudi Arabia. The study would be also covering the benefit of increasing tax rates and increasing the price on tobacco products. The previous studies in Saudi Arabia were not discussing the price increase as a step to reduce the tobacco consumption. It was concerned more about the prevalence of tobacco smokers. The developed countries were interested in the benefits of the taxations of tobacco to fund the campaigns and tobacco control promotion in these countries. Additionally, the studies did not show the effect of the increase of the taxation on reducing the consumption by young people in the Arab world. However, this study will suggest and clarify the benefit of these taxations on funding the lung cancer centres and operating new centres. In addition, it will examine the attitude of smokers and their tolerance to quit smoking under the high new prices. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a gap in the law of tobacco smoking. There is no specific age prohibited from buying tobacco. This has caused an increasing the prevalence of consumption of tobacco products amongst high school students. The research will discuss the benefit of increasing tobacco prices and how it will reduce the number of smokers especially amongst this group. The prevalence of smoking in Saudi Arabia is about 22 percent, in which males are the highest at about 36%, according to WHO reports (WHO, 2006). This study is the first to discuss the benefits of taxation on tobacco products in Saudi Arabia. In the discussion part it will suggest the most proper use of this taxation in tobacco related disease treatments. Additionally, this study will be the first about taxation in the gulf cooperation council countries. These countries with their high income suffer from the high prevalence of tobacco consumption. Since all these countries have the same culture and pattern of lifestyle, this study could be applicable in all of these countries. Also they can apply it to the other important kinds of harmful products such as Hubbly Bubbly flavours. There has been a report that has stated that UAE has planning to increase the price of tobacco every two years and the theory has been that if the citizens would have to spend out at least 16 Dirhams, they would be not interested in trying it out. (Lynne Roberts,2008) Statement: An increase in tobacco price would bring down the demand for tobacco in Saudi Arabia. Hypothesis One: An increase of tobacco price and tax rate would be bringing down the tobacco consumption in Saudi Arabia. Hypothesis Two: There would be other factors that would be bringing down the consumption of tobacco along with price, tax rate. Hypothesis Three: Nothing would be bringing down the consumption of tobacco sales or usage. The Methodology The Participants for the study The participants for the study would be Saudi Arabian nationals and any expatriate who has been working in Saudi Arabia for at least 6 months. Both male and female would be used for the study ad the study would not be limited to the teenagers or any profession. What is meant is that any employed person would be asked to participate in the study. The base age for participating in the study would be 15 years and there would be no higher age for the study. There would be no restriction for women to participate in the study and the study would be confined to the cultures of Saudi Arabia though the data that has been used could be taken to the other parts of Middle East. There would be sellers of Tobacco products who would be participating in the study and there would be wholesalers and retailers who would be selling tobacco products. There would be a study on the intention of Saudi Arabian efforts to curb the smoking. The Sampling frame The sample would be divided in to two parts namely the smokers and non-smokers. The main aim of the study would be to understand the perception if the tobacco price increases and that mean there has to be very step to ensure that the opinion of the smokers to be determined. That does not mean that the study would be excluding non smokers and those who sell it. There would be participation of health and law professionals from the government sector like the police department and health officials. The sample would be covering females who have been into smoking and the sample would be covering both local and international population. The sample could be divided like this The study would be done on a questionnaire method and direct interview would be used. The main method would be to determine the number of male and female that has to be involved in the study and the number of smokers and on smokers that has to be involved in the study. Total no of sample size: 500 Males: 90% Females: 10% Local population: 250 International population: 250 The city that would be covered for the study: Riyadh The smoker’s percentage that would be involved for the study from both sexes: 75% The non smokers that would be involved in the study: 25% The age group that would be divided Between 15 and 25:25% Between 25 and 35:25% Between 35 and 50:25% Above 50 ages: 25% The justification for sample chosen The non smokers would include both ex smokers and who has not smoked any time. By the term ex smokers those who have smoked less than 5 cigarettes in the last two months. ( Saeed AA, Khoja TA, Khan SB.1996,) The sampling size has been limited to 500 and that has been because there is no need to use large numbers for a prevalence survey on tobacco use. Large numbers are generally required in surveys on the association between tobacco use and diseases. Sample size would be depending a lot on the resources and other practical considerations.( While D, Kelly S, Huang W, Charlton A 1996) The age group has been equally represented to ensure that every age group has been kept for study. The range has been started from the age of 15.The reason for not choosing a younger age than 15 has been due to the constrains of getting interview done on school premises and the time limit for the study (Moore L, Roberts C, Tudor-Smith C,2001). There has been an unrestricted tobacco sale to minors in Saudi Arabia that has to be used for the study purpose.( Rowlands DF, Shipster PJ.1987) The population for the study has been equally divided between local and international population. By the term international population means, those persons who are not citizens of Saudi Arabia. There will be lot of Americans, Indians, and Europeans who will be involved in the study and that has kept in level of local population (Schultz H, Ezzat A, Allam A, Gray A,1998). The local population number has been kept as 250 and the reason for choosing this number is to understand the prevalence of smoking in Saudi Arabia. The limitation of the study could be shown as the case of sociocultural restriction of interviewing female and that means the local population would be fully males and the 10% of the females would be from the international population.( Saeed AA, Khoja TA, Khan SB.1996,) The method chosen The main aim of the study would be to determine the correct and in depth answer to the study and that would be got from the questionnaire method and the main aim of the questionnaire method has been to get the answer by direct interview method and that would be covering all the issues to get the answers that would be supporting the hypothesis testing. The study would be covering the all the legal aspects and the harmful effects of smoking with importance attached to the price issue. The method of the study would be covering the quantitative design and the questionnaire would be covering more of closed format rather than open format and that would be helping the analysis of the data. The questions could be easily phrased out and that could be easy to administer. The questions could all be answered with simple numerical responses or by providing yes or no answers to questions with multiple response options. Proper training would be given to the persons who would be involved in collecting of data as every step would be taken to ensure that there would be no bias that would be involved when the study has been conducted. There would be every step that would be taken to ensure that there would be no field bias in the form of questionnaire filling the form and that would be also covered in the study. The ethical issues involved and how it will be dealt with The main ethical issues that would be involved would be that there would be ensuring of privacy of the information that has been collected and there would be every step that would be taken not to interfere with the phone details. There would be proper knowledge about the intention of the study by the respondent and the respondent need to answer the questions only if they are willing to give out response on their own. There would be no compelling for answers and the proper steps would be taken to ensure that the questionnaire would be completed within the stipulated time period. The questionnaire would start with the explanation of the study and should obtain the verbal consent from the respondent. The type of data analysis that would be used The data that has been used for the study would be coded first and the software that would be normally used would be the data excel sheet, SPSS sheet and t test would be used to determine the hypothesis, Proper step would be taken to ensure that one of the three hypothesis has been satisfied and incomplete and missing data would be dealt seriously. Timeline for the research There would be a proper time period for collecting the data using questionnaire method and there would be one month for collecting the data that has been fixed and the number that has been fixed has been 500 persons and there would be proper steps to ensure that there would be a grace period of two weeks after one month deadline has been over to ensure that quality data has been collected. Step One Testing of questionnaire, rewriting the questionnaire and pilot study:3 days Step two Data Collection time period: 45 days Step three Coding of data: 14 days Step four Testing of hypothesis: 14 days Step five Data Analysis and report preparation: 14 days Data would be analysed by X2 test using SPSS or Excel stat software. P values of less than .05 were considered statistically significant Total no of days: 90 days. The final report would be having recommendations for further study and limitations for the present study. The report would be generated in computer with page number, proper citations, double spaced times roman, 12 fonts. The community participation The study would be limited to the Riyadh area and that would mean that every step would be taken to ensure that there would be proper participation from every one and that would mean that both the sexes would be involved and every sections of the society including the age group would be properly represented. The importance of research The aim of the research has been to ensure that there has to be a step in curbing the increased use of smoking in Saudi Arabia and the finding of the study could be transferred to other parts of middle East and that would mean that the other parts of Arab nations could take forward the finding of the study and that can bring a uniform measure to ensure that the increased use of tobacco in Arab countries is bought down. There has to be increased study to ensure that the role of both the sexes has to be understood and there would be involvement of police and legal department along with health department and that would be covering the teenagers also as teenagers has been more tempted in trying out cigarette smoking .There has to be an attempt in trying to ensure that strict action would be taken against the importing of cigarettes and there would be ensuring other methods to be taken other than price increase in bringing down the consumption of cigarette. Reference list: Guindon GE, Tobin S, and Yach D,2002, “Trends and affordability of cigarette prices: ample room for tax increases and related health gains”, Tobacco Control, 11,35-43 . Gilbert A, Cornuz J ,2003,” Which are the most effective and cost-effective interventions for tobacco control? Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe” Health Evidence Network report; http://www.euro.who.int/document/e82993.pdf , accessed September 22 2009. Jarallah J, Al-Rubeaan K. , Al-Nuaim A. , Al-Ruhaily A. , and Kalantan K., 1999, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1763927&blobtype=pdf. Prevalence and determinants of smoking in three regions of Saudi Arabia. [Online] 1999. [Cited: September 22, 2009.] WHO website- country profile, WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean: Saudi Arabia. http://www.emro.who.int/emrinfo/index.asp?Ctry=saa#top [ Cited: September 22, 2009]. Guindon G, Perucic A, and Boisclari D,2003,” Higher Tobacco prices and taxes in South-East Asia an Effective Tool to Reduce Tobacco Use, save lives and Generate Revenue” The World Bank, Economics of Tobacco Control Paper No.11. Global Tobacco Control. 11th World Tobacco Conference on Tobacco or health, (2000). Tobacco Facts Sheet: Tobacco price and Public health. Bassiony M., 2009. “Review Articles Smoking in Saudi Arabia”, Saudi Medical Journal, 30(7) , 876-881. Donna Abu-nasr,2008,”Saudi Arabia Sues Cigarette Importers for $34 Billion”,viewed on September 23,2009,retrieved from http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202425953266 Lynne Roberts,2008,”Tobacco prices set to double”,viewed on September 23,2009,retirved from http://www.arabianbusiness.com/520638-tobacco-prices-set-to-double Euromonitor International's,2009,”Tobacco in Saudi Arabia”,viewed on September 23,2009,retirved from http://www.euromonitor.com/Tobacco_in_Saudi_Arabia Rowlands DF, Shipster PJ.1987, "Cigarette smoking among K–15 year school Boys", Saudi Medical Journal ,8(6),613-8. Saeed AA, Khoja TA, Khan SB.1996," Smoking behaviour and attitudes among Adult Saudi nationals in Riyadh City", Saudi Arabia Tobacco Control ,5(3),215-9. Schultz H, Ezzat A, Allam A, Gray A,1998, "Smoking and health: new insights And recent developments" ,Annals of Saudi Medicine ,18,1-5. While D, Kelly S, Huang W, Charlton A 1996," Cigarette advertising and onset Of smoking in children: questionnaire survey", BMJ,313,398-409. Moore L, Roberts C, Tudor-Smith C,2001,” School smoking policies and smoking prevalence among adolescents: multilevel analysis of cross-sectional data from Saudi Arabia”. Tobacco Control,10,117–123 Read More