World Population Growth - Case Study Example

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH The current growth rate in the world lies at 3 percent implying that the population has a likely replication time of 54 years. In this regard, the worlds’ current population of over 6 billion is expected to reach 12 million by the year 2054 given all factors constant. According to estimates, the global population in March 2012 was about 7.084 billion. Since then the growth in population has continued to rise. This is attributed to numerous factors such as the absence of famine and disease out breaks as it was witnessed 1350 that contained the world’s population at a constant 370 million. It is also attributed to high birth rates and low death rates pursuant to improved health care. In fact, the highest growth rate in the world’s population was witnessed between 1960’s and 1970’s where the population grew by up to 1.8 % annually. The growth reached its peak in the year 1963 where the percentage growth was recorded at 2.2 %. Currently, the growth rate is expected to rise constantly in the next few decades with a steady decline in the world’s population growth rate. In this regard, the world’s population is projected to hit a high of between 7.5 and 12 billion people in the year 2050. A steady decline in population is also expected to occur in 2150 based on long term estimates. This according to population analysts will occur owing to the increasing inability of available resources to sustain future population under the current growth rate level. They assert that under this growth, there has been a continue increasing pressure on the environment, food supply and energy resources. Annual Population Growth Numbers The following graph shows projected world population by the US Census Bureau sampled from the international census database from the period starting 1950 to the year 2050. The graph indicates an increase in the global population from 3 billion to 6 billion between the year 1959 and 1999. This is an indication that the population doubled between this periods of 40 years. In the further projections the population is expected to increase through the 21st century but minimally. In fact, the population is expected to hit a high of 9 billion which is a fifty percent increase in the next 45 years. Graph A: World Population by year graph Percentage Annual Growth Rates and the Average Annual Increase Data The table below presents data on the annual growth rates of the world’s population from 1950 through the current period and projected estimates up to the year 2050 Year % Annual Growth Rate average annual increase in millions 1950 1.458 37.3 1951 1.611 41.8 1952 1.717 45.3 1953 1.796 48.2 1954 1.899 51.9 1955 1.912 53.2 1956 1.976 56.0 1957 1.963 56.8 1958 1.783 52.6 1959 1.409 42.3 1960 1.346 41.0 1961 1.820 56.1 1962 2.220 69.7 1963 2.223 71.3 1964 2.109 69.2 1965 2.096 70.2 1966 2.036 69.6 1967 2.062 72.0 1968 2.100 74.8 1969 2.076 75.5 1970 2.090 77.6 1971 2.011 76.2 1972 1.953 75.5 1973 1.890 74.5 1974 1.804 72.5 1975 1.739 71.1 1976 1.729 71.9 1977 1.702 72.0 1978 1.741 74.9 1979 1.652 72.3 1980 1.862 82.9 1981 1.765 80.0 1982 1.758 81.1 1983 1.676 78.7 1984 1.712 81.7 1985 1.729 83.9 1986 1.751 86.5 1987 1.735 87.2 1988 1.697 86.8 1989 1.681 87.4 1990 1.569 83.0 1991 1.581 84.9 1992 1.513 82.5 1993 1.462 80.9 1994 1.442 81.0 1995 1.411 80.3 1996 1.322 78.7 1997 1.361 77.5 1998 1.299 77.1 1999 1.275 76.7 2000 1.261 76.8 2001 1.245 76.8 2002 1.225 76.5 2003 1.217 76.9 2004 1.201 76.8 2005 1.201 77.7 2006 1.197 78.4 2007 1.185 78.5 2008 1.166 78.2 2009 1.140 77.4 2010 1.121 76.9 2011 1.107 76.8 2012 1.107 77.7 2013 1.093 77.6 2014 1.078 77.3 2015 1.061 76.9 2016 1.044 76.5 2017 1.024 75.8 2018 1.003 75.0 2019 0.980 74.0 2020 0.959 73.1 2021 0.939 72.3 2022 0.917 71.3 2023 0.895 70.2 2024 0.873 69.1 2025 0.853 68.1 2026 0.833 67.1 2027 0.813 66.1 2028 0.794 65.0 2029 0.774 63.9 2030 0.756 62.8 2031 0.739 61.9 2032 0.722 60.9 2033 0.705 59.9 2034 0.688 58.9 2035 0.672 57.9 2036 0.657 57.0 2037 0.641 56.0 2038 0.626 55.0 2039 0.611 54.0 2040 0.596 53.0 2041 0.582 52.1 2042 0.567 51.1 2043 0.552 50.0 2044 0.538 48.9 2045 0.523 47.9 2046 0.510 46.9 2047 0.496 45.8 2048 0.482 44.8 2049 0.468 43.7 2050 0.440 43.1 The annual growth rate has been calculated as follows using the formula; Where; t represents the year, r (t) is the difference in growth rate between two successive years and p (t) is the midyear population. The graph below is drawn from the above data. Graph B: Rate of growth graph Based on the equation and given that the current annual population growth rate is 1.17 % then to calculate the number of years it would it take to double the world's population which currently lies at 7 billion can be computed. Taking the midyear population at 6 billion persons then the number of years would be calculated as follows: The average annual population increase bar graph The following data and graph shows percentage population increase after every ten years since 1950 through the current period and projected outcomes in the next four decades. The data shows that there was a rapid increase in population between 1950 and 1990 which was then followed by a steady decline in the following two decades. This decline is expected to continue through future decades. The decline is attributed to population control interventions that have over years been devised to control rapid growth in the world’s population. It further shows a positive trend of different nations’ attempt to embrace birth control measures which have faced resistance in the past years. Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 % Population increase 37.3 41.0 77.6 82.8 83.0 76.8 76.9 73.1 62.8 53.0 43.1 The bar graph below is drawn from the above data. It shows the yearly population change expressed as a percentage increase. From the graph, it is evident that there was a rapid increase in population in 1970 where it rose to over 80 million representing an increase of 77.6 % and reached its peak in 1980 when it rose by 82.8%. This is an indication that though the yearly growth rates peak was witnessed in the late 1960’s, the actual peak in population occurred between 1970 and 1980 owing to the fact that the population in 1960 was much below that of 1980. In addition, research indicates an accelerated growth in population which lied at 4.4 billion people in 1980 to a stunning 6 billion persons in 2000. This growth is expected to continue though on a slower pace with a projection of additional 1 billion by 2015. This will raise the world’s population to over 7 billion. The changes over the years is attributed to various factors which include; reduced death rates, increased access to immunization leading to increased chances of survival among children, family planning interventions that continues to receive global acceptance and improved health care conditions in third world countries. Further, the world’s population have in the recent decades got access to quality education and job opportunities for both men and women leading to women concentrating in education and jobs at the expense of bearing children as they used to in the past decades more so in developing countries. It is important to note that the slowing birth rates have greatly contributed to diminishing population growth rates in many nations. Countries that continue to experience increased population growth rate do so owing to the fact that their birth rate drop does not equal the death rates. In addition, most of these countries have a big population base leading to increasing population every year regardless of population control measures put forth. Finally, most countries have adopted primary health care directives and girl child education. This has proved to be successful in birth reduction hence reduced population growth rate. References Gilbert, G. (2006). World population: A reference handbook. Santa Barbara, Calif., [etc.: ABC- CLIO National Research Council (U.S.): (1986). Population growth and economic development: Policy Questions. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press. Sharma, R. K. (1996). Demography and population problems; Delhi: Atlantic. UN (New York, NY). (2004). World urbanization prospects: The 2003 revision. New York, NY: UN. Department of economic and social affairs United States. Bureau of the Census, International Statistical Programs Centre (U.S): 1984 World Population: University of Minnesota: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Read More