Forecasting Drought in Australia - Research Proposal Example

Research proposal and Reflection Name Date Course Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 List of figures 3 Introduction 4 Aims and objectives 5 Aims 5 Objectives 5 Literature review 5 Methodology 10 Timetable 11 Conclusion 12 Reflection 13 Research Vignette 1: Projection of World Fossil fuel by country 13 Research Vignette 2: Geostatistical Method for Predicting Soil Moisture Continuously in a Subalpine Basin 14 Research Vignette 3: Evaluating the compliance of sea Turtles Light Ordinances in Florida using remote sensing 16 Works Cited 17 List of figures Rainfall deficiencies 6 Temperature distribution 8 Temperature changes 9 Introduction In Australia, drought is defines by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as the lowest decile of rainfall within a period of three months as compared to the past records (Pozzi, et al, 780). Drought is therefore considered in terms of lack of rainfall or very low levels of rainfall for a period three months. This is considering that the lack of rainfall for a period of three moths may also be during the season when rain is expected. The rainfall deficiency is important in Australia during the process of defining drought. The deficiency of pastoral leases is also useful in the determination of drought. Historical climate records play an essential role in terms of determining drought in Australia. This is considering that drought has adverse effects on different activities as well as water supply and food security. Drought is common in many regions across Australia. The state governments have the responsibility of declaring that a certain region has been affected by drought. The records from the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that severe droughts usually occur once every 18 years since 1860 (Pozzi, et al, 782). The worst drought that occurred in Australia in the recent times was between 2003 and 2003. The meteorological records indicate that there has been a decrease precipitation since 1994. Drought in Australia has negative impacts on the agricultural activities and it also impacts negatively on the food security. The animals are also affected by drought as it leads to a decrease in the amount of food as well as water. The paper is thus a project proposal about rainfall data for forecasting drought in Australia. Aims and objectives Aims The aim of the research project will be to create an understanding of how the rainfall data is used for the purposes of drought forecast in Australia. Objectives To establish the importance of rainfall data in the process of drought forecast. To establish the relationship between the rainfall data and drought. To establish the trends and frequency of drought in Australia. Literature review Australian Water Availability project which is under the Meteorological bureau is usually responsible for the calculation of rainfall deficiency data. The data is usually used for the purposes of forecasting drought in different regions. During the calculations, 1 in 20 events of rainfall can be used for the purposes of determining the likely occurrence of low rainfall in future and hence leading to the drought forecast. In other incidences, 1 in 10 events is also used for determining where the rainfall is below the 10th percentile which is also useful in terms of forecasting the drought (Barua, 28). The past rainfall data as well as the current rainfall data are mainly utilized during the process of forecasting drought in Australia. The National rainfall deficiency datasets are usually produced on a monthly basis for the purposes of forecasting drought. The levels of accuracy is maintained when the dataset are calculated and produced every month. This is considering that the forecast is used for preparing the people for the drought as well as enabling the authorities to put in place measures to deal with the effects of the drought. In Australia, 91 potential periods between 12 to 24months are usually assessed in grid cells. The grids are usually used to establish the regions that have recorded the lowest amount of rainfall. The rainfall deficiency established from the grids can be used for the process of forecasting drought. The information is also used for the purposes of planning. Rainfall deficiencies, Source . The deciles are commonly used in Australia for the purposes of forecasting the drought. This method has been in use in Australia since 1967. It involves ranking the long term monthly rainfall records from the highest to the lowest construct through the use of a cumulative frequency distribution. A division of tem different parts is then made and each of the part is referred to as a decile. The first decile has rainfall that does not exceed 10% of the rainfall occurrence. The tenth decile has the highest amount of rainfall. The Australian Drought Watch usually uses the deciles for the purposes of forecasting the drought. The use of deciles is a simple methods that requires less data and few assumptions and hence making it accurate in terms of forecasting the drought (Deo, & Mehmet, 516). The definition of the drought in Australia also involves the deciles which is useful in terms of forecasting the drought. However, the user of this method also has its disadvantages as it requires a long history of rainfall record. A record of rainfall data between 30 to 50 years ago is usually required for the purposes of carrying out the calculations and forecasting the drought. The results of the forecasts are usually provided to the members of the public and the government. The droughts that falls in decile 1 and 2 are considered severe and the authorities have to take appropriate measures to ensure that the mitigation measures are put in place. The farmers and ranchers have to be provided with such information so as to ensure that adequate preparations are carried out. Temperature distribution, Source, . Other models that utilize the rainfall data are also used for the purposes of forecasting drought in Australia. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (SARIMA) is one of the model that is used for the purposes of forecasting drought in Australia. This model also involves the use of rainfall data. The calculations are composed of periodic components and different observations which play an important role in terms of ensuring that the calculations can be carried out. Monthly rainfall observation data is useful in the calculations at it is used for the creation of series (Barua & Perera, 95). The information about the seasons is important during the process of forecasting drought in Australia. The model also utilizes twelve monthly series during the calculations. This method has been used over the years with different seasonality being involved. This model has high levels of accuracy and it can be used to forecasts accurately up to a period of two months. This model is highly reliable in terms of forecasting the drought. Mathematical calculations have to be carried out for the purposes of obtaining information about the drought. This method however requires some levels of expertise as well as adequate knowledge and skills with regards to the Rainfall data and some of the mathematical formulas. This method may take a lot of time in order to obtain the required results. The meteorological bureau however utilizes this method during the prediction of drought when using the rainfall data. This method is gaining a lot of popularity in terms of forecasting drought through the use of rainfall data. Temperature changes, Source, . The prediction of drought in Australia is also based on some of the rainfall patterns and events. Elnino is one of the events that are characterized by a high amount of rainfall that leads to flooding. This phenomenon is common in most parts of the world including Australia. Elnino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an event that is associated with Elnino. This event is used for the purposes of predicting drought in Australia. ENSO is important in terms of expressing the cycle of changes in the climate. The global climate events such as droughts are linked to Elnino and ENSO (Yuan & Eric, 4900). The meteorological bureau in Australia usually uses the information about ENSO for the purposes of predicting drought. This information is accurate in terms of predicting drought. However, its major weakness is that ENSO does not occur from time to time. It may take up to ten years for such an event to occur. Within a period of ten years, drought can occur several times. The use of ENSO data is therefore limited in Australia due to the frequency of the event. This concept has also been used over a long period of time in Australia and other parts of the world. It is more of an observational method and no calculations are required. The prediction o drought based on the rainfall data has played an essential role in terms of ensuring that the authorities take action and the people are prepared for the drought. The forecasting methods play an important role in terms of providing estimates with regards to the duration of the drought. Methodology The process of data collection can be carried out through the primary as well as secondary methods. The collection of data through the use of primary method involves obtaining the information directly from the source (Creswell, 21). This method of data collection involves the use of interviews and questionnaires. For the purposes of the research, the primary method will be used for collecting the data directly from the experts and personnel in the meteorological bureau who are involved in the process of drought forecasting suing the rainfall data. The collection of data through the use of secondary means mainly involves the use of books, journals and internet sources (Bernard, 12). The secondary data will be collected during the research and it will be used for comparison purposes. The primary and secondary data will be compared in order to provide accurate information with regards to the use of rainfall data for forecasting drought in Australia. However, the recent and credible books and journals will be used during the process of data collection. The information from the internet will be scrutinized in order to determine its credibility. Only the internet sources from the government as well as the Meteorological bureau will be used during the research as they are the only credible sources. The concepts of quantitative as well as qualitative research are important during the research. Quantitative research mainly involves the use of calculations and mathematical statistics. However, the qualitative method does not involve the use of mathematical statistics. Both methods can be used during a research and this is usually referred to as mixed method research (Ragin, 11). High emphasis will be placed on the use of qualitative methods as it is related to the research. Ethical considerations are important during the process of carrying out research. This will be applied in the research. The concepts of ethics are important in terms of ensuring that the research is credible and accurate. As a means of maintaining ethics during the research, all the information obtained from the secondary sources will be clearly authorized. This is also useful in acknowledging the authors of the article and avoiding plagiarism (Jensen, 15). It is unethical for a researcher to be engaged in plagiarism. During the interviews, high standards of ethics will be maintained. The respondents will not be influenced to provide information in a certain manner. The interview questions as well as the questionnaires will be well structured for the purposes of ensuring it does not influence the respondents to provide information in a certain manner that is inappropriate. Timetable Activity Description Timeline Preparation for the research Developing the research proposal. Purchasing the required equipment. Developing the research questions. Identifying the respondents. 3 weeks Data collection Visiting the library. Carrying out interviews. Distributing the questionnaires. 3 weeks Data analysis Analysing the data collected. Making comparisons between the primary and secondary data. 1 week Data compilation Writing a complete report. Correcting errors. Compiling the report in a soft copy and hardcopy. 2 weeks Presentation Presenting the complete report 1 day Conclusion In conclusion, it is evident that the forecast of drought in Australia is important due to the effects that drought has on the country. Drought is common in Australia and it has adverse effects on the human activities as well as animal and plant survival. It is evident that various methods can be used for the purposes of forecasting drought in Australia through the use of rainfall data. It is evident that different models and techniques are used for the purposes of forecasting drought through the use of the rainfall data. Some of the models and techniques requires the past rainfall data for the purposes of coming up with a conclusion. A lot of expertise is required when handling the data related to the rainfall. It is also evident that some mathematical formulas as well as concepts are also required for the purposes of forecasting drought. It is that the meteorological bureau is highly involved in the process of fore casting the drought through the use of rainfall data. The Bureau is responsible for providing the government with the information that is aimed at mitigat8ing the effects of drought. It is also evident that the information about the drought forecast is important to various stakeholders including the farmers and the ranchers. Reflection Research Vignette 1: Projection of World Fossil fuel by country The researchers in the article had a clear hypothesis governing the research. This played an important role in terms of ensuring that more focus is placed on specific issues. The research questions in the paper are not clear as it is more general and direct questions are not available. This lowers the quality of research and it makes it difficult to clearly understand what the researchers are investigating. The methodology that was used for the collection of the data is appropriate and it impact positively on the research. The concepts of mixed methods research have been utilized. This involves the use of qualitative as well as quantitative concepts. Some statistical data that has been used in the research have been clearly highlighted. The methodology clearly explains how the data was collected which also impacts positively on the credibility of the research. The methodology that was used for the data collection also indicates that the research was carried out in an ethical manner. The methodology that has been used in the research is appropriate in terms of testing the hypothesis. This methodology used is thus suitable for the study as it provides the required information. The research has played an essential role in producing new knowledge. New information has been provided by the authors with regards to the topic. This is an indication that the researchers had extensive knowledge with regards to the topic. The new knowledge is related to the recent trends in the industry. This indicates that the researchers have been following the new trends in the industry. The concepts of modeling have been used in the research which has positive outcome. The use of modeling is useful in terms of predicting the future outcome. Future outcomes have been predicted in the research through the use of modeling. The access and reliability of the data is also dependant on modeling. The paper is reliable due to the nature of the data that was used during the research. This further indicates that the information obtained from the research is relevant to the topic. The limitation is however the lack of adequate information in some of the issues in the topic. The paper has a high level of ethical considerations which has improved on the quality of the research. The high levels of ethics in the research play an important role in enhancing its credibility and reliability. Research Vignette 2: Geostatistical Method for Predicting Soil Moisture Continuously in a Subalpine Basin The research has an hypothesis although it is not clearly stated. The lack of clarity in the research may have negative impacts on the process of carrying out the investigations regarding the research topic. The overall quality of a research can also be affected by the lack of a clear hypothesis. The research questions are also not clear in the paper. However, the objectives of the research have been stated clearly which plays an important role in providing clear guidance. The aims and objectives of the paper have been listed and each objective requires a broad understanding of the topic. The research methodology that has been used in the research mainly relies on the concepts of qualitative research. Observations as well as investigations have been used in the research for data collection. This is considering that the research focuses on scientific issues which require a lot of observations. Scientific methods have also been used for the purposes of data collection and analysis. The quantitative research method has been used in some parts of the research. Quantitative research method has been used in the analysis of the data collected. Statistical analysis has been carried out in the research and it mainly involves the quantitative research methods. The methodology that has been used in the research is appropriate in testing the hypothesis. The methodology addresses the research hypothesis from different perspectives and hence impacting positively on the ability to provide the required information. The methodology is also useful in terms of addressing the aims and objectives of the research. The research has produced new knowledge regarding the topic and hence making it relevant. The new knowledge can be used for the purposes of addressing some of the knowledge gaps in the industry. High standards of ethics have been observed in the research. The research is ethical as the information obtained from the external sources has been well referenced. Opportunities exist for applying the spatial surveys in the research area. This is considering the scientific nature of the data and information required. Geospatial mappings do not compromise the fine scale data representation. The concepts that have been used in the reach play an important role in terms of successfully incorporating the concepts of fine and broadscale data representation. The use of scientific methods has greatly improved on the quality of the information provided in the research. Research Vignette 3: Evaluating the compliance of sea Turtles Light Ordinances in Florida using remote sensing The researchers had a hypothesis that they were investigating although it has not been clearly highlighted. The lack of clarity in the hypothesis has effects on the outcome of the research. The research does not have any research questions and this creates difficulties in terms of carrying out detailed research. The research methodology that has been used is appropriate in terms of data collection. The research methodology mainly involves the use of observations for the purposes of data collection. Qualitative research concepts have been used in the collection of data. Scientific methods have been used widely in the research for the purposes of data collection and analysis. Quantitative research concepts have also been used in the data analysis process. This plays an important role in terms of ensuring that the data is of clearly understood. Statistical data has also been used for the purposes of data analysis. The use of both the quantitative and qualitative methods of research is important in terms of improving on the effectiveness of the research. This is because the weaknesses of qualitative research can be solved through the use of quantitative research. The strategy has been used in the research for the purposes of improving its quality. The methodology that has been used in the research is appropriate in terms of testing the hypothesis. The use of secondary research data has been useful in the research in terms of highlighting some of the recent information. It has also been used to support the findings of the research. This is therefore an indication that the research methodology is appropriate in terms of addressing the needs of the research. The research has been able to produce new knowledge with regards to the topic. The new knowledge crested is useful in terms of creating an understanding of the future trends in the industry. The concepts of ethics have been maintained throughout the research which makes it reliable and credible. The information can be used for addressing the aspects that are related to the topic. The opportunity for incorporating the spatial surveys into the research are is available. This is due to the scientific nature of the information required in the research. The research clearly addresses most of the issues that are related to the topic. Works Cited Pozzi, Will, et al. "Toward global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for monitoring and forecasting." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94.6 (2013): 776-785. Barua, Shishutosh, et al. "Artificial Neural Network–Based Drought Forecasting Using a Nonlinear Aggregated Drought Index." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (2012). Deo, Ravinesh C., and Mehmet Şahin. "Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the prediction of monthly Effective Drought Index in eastern Australia." Atmospheric Research 153 (2015): 512-525. Barua, Shishutosh, A. W. M. Ng, and B. J. C. Perera. "Drought assessment and forecasting: a case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia." Australian Journal of Water Resources 15.2 (2012): 95. Yuan, Xing, and Eric F. Wood. "Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset." Geophysical Research Letters 40.18 (2013): 4900-4905. Creswell, John W. Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. Sage publications, 2013. Bernard, H. Russell. Research methods in anthropology: Qualitative and quantitative approaches. Rowman Altamira, 2011. Ragin, Charles C. The comparative method: Moving beyond qualitative and quantitative strategies. Univ of California Press, 2014. Jensen, Klaus Bruhn, ed. A handbook of media and communication research: qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Routledge, 2013. Anderson, Sharolyn J., & Katherine, Williams E. Geostatistical Method for Predicting Soil Moisture Continuously in a Subalpine Basin. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 80.4 (2014). Anderson, Sharolyn J. et al. Evaluating the Compliance of Sea Turtle Light Ordinances in Florida Using Remote Sensing. Geography Compass, 7.12 (2013): 868-878. Ward, Johnson. Projection of World Fossil fuel by country. Fuel, 141 (2015) 120–135. Read More