Dangerous Climate Change - Research Paper Example

The dangerous climate change and some of the strategies that can be used to avert the beginning of a dangerous climate change. 1) Define and Discuss Climate Change including diagrams and graphs or figures Climate Change Dangerous climatic change has many definitions and there is no specific definition. Dawson and Spannagle (2009) states that dangerous climatic change is the level beyond which climatic change surpasses the acceptable climatic change levels (limits) prescribed in Article 2 of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992. Articles 2 of UNFCCC refer dangerous climatic change as dangerous anthropogenic interference caused by human activities. However, Parker and Shapiro (2008) give a more specific definition of a climatic change. They state that dangerous climatic change refers to any or combination of the following; three feet rise in sea level, beyond 50 percent extinction of species or / and regional change in climate that cause severe reduction of local food and water supply. According to climate change experts, dangerous climate change is caused by additional 2oF (1.2oC) rise in global warming above 2000 levels. 2oF (1.2oC) rise in global warming above 2000 levels is equivalent to 450 (per particle million) ppm of Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. In May 2008, there were 385 ppm CO2 levels (Parker and Shapiro, 2008). Increase in carbon dioxide concentration is caused by human activities that release carbon dioxide into the atmospheres. All combustion, which are made to generate energy releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and should be controlled if dangerous climatic change is to be avoided. Figure 1-Reasons for concern about climate change impacts Temperature Change (0C) Sources OECD, 2004 The above figure shows the warming range per every unit of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Each column represents a tipping point caused by a given concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The rate of warming is indicated by the graph that cut across all the columns. Column one shows that an increase in carbon dioxide concentration from 350 ppm to 550 ppm generate additional temperatures of between 1.5oC and 2oC respectively. The impact of increase in temperatures in column one can only harm handful species and can threatened earth system, which may trigger things like ice melt or dieback of forests. If carbon dioxide emissions were to stabilize at around 850 ppm substantial additional warming would occur at this range because the slope of the graph is very steep. If carbon concentrations were to go beyond column five in the above diagram, then temperatures will rise by about 5oC and 6oC respectively. These are extreme rise in temperatures and life may cease to exist. 2) The most affected by dangerous climate change The number of people who die or in danger in developed nations is less as compared to those who die or in danger in developing nations. This is because infrastructure and social safety nets are inadequate or non-existent to cushion people from less developed countries from dangerous effects caused by drastic changes in the climate. People in developing countries are mainly affected by dwindling food suppliers while people in developed countries suffer from weather related conditions such as heat strokes and hurricanes. According to Dawson and Spannagle (2009 p.115), precipitated patterns have caused extreme weather events. Rainfall patterns are changing and incidences of drought have increased due to global warming in developing countries. These have affected agricultural production in Sub-Sahara Africa, South Asia and Mediterranean region. Developing countries are hard hit by failing crop yields and declining water supply. Worsening food securities are evident in Africa and South Asian countries. It is estimated that twenty three million people will be hit by severe drought and rising food prices in Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. As a result, Oxfam Launched $152 million appeal to help most affected people in Africa (Buzzle, 2008). In addition, people in developing countries will suffer more because the amount of calories that will be available for every person will dropped to 2,410 calories daily while those for people in developed nations will be 3,200 calories daily in 2010 (Buzzle, 2008). Due to global warming that increase incidences of malnutrition, two million in Africa dies annually because of malnutrition related cases. Developed nations also suffer the impact of dangerous climate change. Developed countries such as the United States have experienced extreme long heat waves and it is estimated that other hot events are likely to be common in the United States by 2039. Furthermore, it is estimated that heat waves induced by global warming is deadly. In 2003, a heat wave in Europe claimed about sixty five thousand lives. France was hard heat as 17,622 people died, while in Germany, Spain, and Italy as well as Portugal and Netherlands, 9,000, 7,300, 7,300, 1,900 and 2,400 people lost their lives respectively. In London, 1,600 people died from heat waves and 150 people died in Belgium (Schwartz, 2010). The heat waves hit Europe also in 2010, killing thousands of people, and destroyed thousand hectares of crops Guardian (2011). In Russia, over 50,000 people were killed by heat waves in 2010 as people succumbed to heat strokes and respiratory complications. Heat waves also reduced Russian grain yield by about 25 percent. In addition, countries such as Japan suffer from earth quakes, which can be linked to dangerous climatic changes (Watts, 2009). From the above statistics it is evident that more people are at risk in the developing countries than in developed countries. 4) Different viewpoints- Hanson, World Bank, IPCC, Lovelock According to Hansen, dangerous climate change can happen when carbon dioxide concentration is at most 350 ppm. He points that the indication that climate tipping point has been reached include melting of ice sheets, rise in the seal level, ocean acidification as well as disappearing alpine glaziers and reducing water supply. Hansen believes that the tipping point can be reversed by undertaking a number of measure including stopping oil and gas exploration, total ban of use of coal by 2030 and an intensive reforestation and practicing biochar agriculture. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model foresees gradual changes in the climate in future. IPCC concluded that if global warming increases by 2oC or more, the biodiversity and ecosystem are likely to suffer irreparable losses. As a result, IPCC requires that global warming should be limited to 2oC -2.4oC relative to the temperature before the industrial age. This will be caused by about 445 ppm and 490 ppm of concentration carbon dioxide. According to IPCC, to avoid situation of dangerous climate change, developed countries must reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by about 25 percent and 40 percent before the end of 2020. IPCC believes that the planet earth can be saved if appropriate measures are implemented to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations to manageable levels between 445 ppm and 490 ppm. Gessert (2010) revealed that Lovelock generated Gaia hypothesis, which proposes that Earth’s biosphere functions like a living organism under ecological relationships and feedback loops. According to Gaia hypothesis, the Gaia’s feedback loop has worked in favour of mankind from the end of ice age to the current time. However, the climatic stability that favoured mankind since the end of ice age is ending as huge amounts of carbon dioxide is spewed to the atmosphere by activities of mankind. Lovelock perceives that an opportunity for sustainable development has lapsed and is not sure whether ant single species will survive in future. This is because he argues that if melting polar ice melts and allow for exploration of vast reservoir of natural gas and oil under Arctic Ocean, Earth’s temperatures will automatically rise beyond IPCC predictions, so high that no species will survive except for few thermophiles. This is because temperatures may be pushed beyond the boiling point of water. As a result, and the planet will become too hot and remain so until, after a billion years when it will be consumed by the sun. Though his prediction is hopeless, he believes that man has a role to play to save self and others as they prepare for the next role. Consequently, humans need to develop earth based religion rooted in science. The science based religion should be able to situate mankind within a larger picture of the biosphere and elevate the earth beyond personal interests. 5) Dangerous climate change means that tipping points may arise. According to Little (2010), tipping point refers to a specific point (threshold), where a small change in human activity can trigger abrupt and fast climatic transition to a new state. It is a point farthest away from climatic equilibrium and any slight change in the climate could result to non-reversible consequences. Therefore, tipping point is a dangerous climatic position that can easily be pushed to a new state that is normally extremely disastrous. A climate system is pushed to a tipping point by human activities. Eccleston (2008) asserts that the melting of Arctic sea ices and greening of the Sahara as well as disruption of West African monsoon will happen in ten years. Melting of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet will happen within three hundred years, while collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation and increase in El Nino Southern Oscillation will take 100 years. Finally, the dieback of Amazon and Boreal forest will happen within fifty years. Melting and any other change in the climatic or environmental phenomenon is a sign of a tipping point and should serve as a warning that something terrible is about to happen if the climate is stressed beyond the current level. Tipping points help to distinguish global warming problem from other problems (Spratt and Sutton 2008). 6) Implications of dangerous Climate Change. Dangerous climate Change claim thousands of lives each year in developed countries and claims millions more people in developing countries. Developed countries experienced heat waves which claimed over 65,000 lives in Europe alone as temperatures rose to over 104 F (400C). Heat waves are silent killers claiming lives of the elderly, chronically ill and very youngest members of the society. It also destroys crops and leaves millions of hectares of land burned. It was estimated that Russia losses resulting from Heat Wave was over $15 billion (Guardian, 2011). According to Watts (2009), scientists have linked earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches, and tsunamis to global warming. This is because rising levels of carbon dioxide from vehicles, power stations, and factories alters Earth’s geology. Scientists further found out that ice cap disappearance alters the pressures acting on the Earth’s crust and triggers volcanic eruptions. According to Polya (2007), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that if dangerous climate change is not responded to, temperatures are likely to rise by 4oC and sea level is likely to rise by 0.6 metres before 2013. When sea level rises, islands, and coastal areas risk being submerged. This may cause extensive damage to agriculture and crops will fail. High magnitude droughts, hurricanes, and floods will endanger thousands of populations. According to lovelock, if emission of carbon dioxide reaches 500ppm the Greenland ice would be eroded and ocean phytoplankton system will disappear. If ocean phytoplankton system disappears, global temperature balance will not be achieved and global warming will be fiercer. Climate change scientists revealed that carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is currently 380 parts per million (ppm) and increases at the rate of 3.3 percent per year. Furthermore, Williams (2010) stated that International Union for the conservation of Nature (IUCN) has listed 50,000 endangered species. Of the 50,000 species listed, 17,000 species are facing immediate extinctions. IUCN predicts that 50 percent amphibians, 70 percent of botanic life, 37 percent of fresh water fish, 28 percent of reptiles, 21 percent of mammals, and 12 percent of all birds will be extinct by the end of 21st century. Other implications of global warming include ocean acidification that will kill coral reefs. According to Hansen (2009), dangerous climate change will cause Arctic sea ice to melt. At the same time, melting ice sheet and glaciers will release frozen methane as tundra also melts. 7) Reversion Strategies 7.1) Hansen: Hansen thinks there should be zero coal plants by 2020. (He wants to raise the price of carbon emissions and make technology obsolete.) Hansen suggested a number of reverse strategies to control dangerous climate change. First, Hansen suggested that use of unconventional fossils and coal must be phased out by 2020. However, use of unconventional fossils fuels may be allowed where it is possible to capture and sequester CO2. In addition, construction of old technology coal-fired power plant must also be stopped. Secondly, he suggested that concerted efforts must be put on reducing human made hydrocarbons as well as black carbon, ozone and methane. Thirdly, forestry and farming practices should be improved to reduce atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, biofuel-technology power plants with CO2 sequestration should also be improved to reduce atmospheric CO2. Finally, producers of carbon emissions must be highly taxed and energy efficiency standards set. There should also be removal of barriers to energy efficiency actions to spur innovation that will bring about more use of renewable energies. Innovations should also be developed to increase efficient use of oil and gas so that less mobile fuel can be used in the transition to another phase of industrial revolutions. 7.2) Government Regulations: Government regulation strategy/ Private Sector/ Government Subsidy Various governments are promising to take steps to reverse the dangerous climate change. The steps include reducing greenhouse gases, increase use of renewable energy controlling imports of tropical timber, increased energy efficiency and setting high tax on emissions. Governments have entered into international agreements. The agreements include Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen 2009 among others. Countries that ratified Kyoto Protocol accept to reduce levels of carbon dioxide emissions and participate in emissions trading. Through the international agreements, governments commit themselves to implement environmentally friendly activities in their area of jurisdictions. United States of America, India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and China agreed to the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate. The partnership makes the countries to invest in technologies that help to reduce global warming. Methane to market initiative is a new technology that is aimed at reducing methane emissions by capturing emitted methane and used for generation of clean energy. World Bank advance Subsidies Government can offer subsidies to entities or individuals who generate energy from renewable sources. It can also give tax subsidies to consumers who use renewable energy to meet their energy needs. Subsidies may be in form of direct cash transfers, indirect support mechanism, rebates or preferential tax treatments. Subsidies help to lower the cost of production or the cost of paying for energy. Direct cash transfers could be paid in terms of grants. It can also refer to borrowing loans in furtherance of the renewable energy production or usage. Preferential tax treatments refer to exemption from specific tax or duty levied on conventional energy sources or uses such as fuel. Subsidies are provided for renewable technologies such as wind, wave and hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, fossils and nuclear power. This is to encourage many people or entities to adopt the use of renewable energy or energy saving technologies and equipments. Prototype Carbon Fund through public private partnership under Clean Development Mechanism stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol to help developing countries to minimize carbon emissions. Carbon emission trading Carbon emission trading or cap and trade refer to an environment oriented policy meant to impose cost or quota on carbon emissions. Carbon emission trading is based on cap and trade or baseline and credit. Government of a given country set a price for carbon dioxide emissions, which will be paid by entities of companies that emit carbon dioxide. This will impact negatively on companies and as a result will discourage process or activities that produce high levels of carbon dioxide. In a cap, government set up limits beyond which entities are not allowed to cross. Therefore, each company will be told the amount of carbon dioxide it has to produce and beyond that will attract some serious sanctions. On the other hand, some governments may grant cash subsidies or rebates to companies that operate below their threshold, which is equivalent to the amount of carbon dioxide that was not produced. For example, European Union Emission Trading scheme commenced operations on January, 1 2005 and all the twenty five European member states participate. Private sector Twenty three multinational corporations came together at the G8 Climate change discussion. Among them are British Airways, Toyota Motors, Ford and British Petroleum. There are different ways in which private entities can help reverse climate change menace. According to Weidman (2010), ICT sector can help reverse or minimize the climatic change. This can be done by private entities through sponsoring of climate change meetings and symposiums, financing innovative technologies that use renewable energies and using their technologies as a platform to influence members of the public to adopt environmentally friendly techniques in their operations. For example, mobile communication providers can use their short messaging service platform to urge the subscribers adopt environment friendly technologies to reduce carbon emission to the environment. There are about five billion mobile subscribers in the world and it is estimated that the number will increase to fifty billion subscribers in 2020. It is estimated that through smart application of ICT, at least 15 percent of world carbon dioxide emission could be offsets by 2020. Taxation Emission tax is levied on individuals owning and operating green houses on the basis of each tonne of green house gas emitted into the atmosphere. Emission taxes are cost effective and environmentally effective. 7.3) Technology: Carbon Capture Strategies (When will they get in? How much will it cost? Which technology is at which point now Stangeland (2007) stated carbon capture storage strategy has been invented and implemented by some countries. This is to help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Under the Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage, carbon dioxide is captured, stored temporarily, transported and stored in safe and isolated locations away from the atmosphere. Places appropriate for storing carbon dioxide include saline aquifers as well as depleted oil and gas fields. Presently, they are stored in North Sea where one million tones of carbon dioxide have been stored annually since 1996 in an underground geological formation called the Utsiru. Infrastructure for capturing carbon dioxide is set up in large power plants fired by fossil fuel, large petrochemical as well as aluminum and steal plants. Transportation of capture carbon dioxide is done via pipelines or shipped. The first carbon capture and storage project is Sleipner. It began operation in 1996 and stores at least one million tons of carbon dioxide each year. The largest carbon capture and storage is the Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Project situated in Saskatchewan, Canada. Other site also includes In-Salah located in Algeria. Canada has invested over $ 3.4 billion in the development of carbon capture and storage technology. References 1. ‘Deadly heat-waves will be more frequent in coming decades’, The Guardian, viewed March, 25 2011, . 2. Buzzle 2008, Report Says Food Shortages Will Hit Developing World and Global Warming Set to Bring Back Malnutrition, viewed March, 25 2011, . 3. Dawson, B & Spannagle, M 2009, The complete guide to climate change, Taylor & Francis, London. 4. Eccleston, P 2008, ‘Climate change 'tipping point' within 100 years,’ The Telegraph, February 5, viewed March, 25 2011, . 5. Gessert, G 2010, Green light: toward an art of evolution, MIT Press, Massachusetts. 6. Hansen, J 2009, Storms of my grandchildren: the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity, Bloomsbury Publishing USA, New York. 7. Lenton, MT, Held, H, Kriegler, E, Hall, WJ, Lucht,W, Rahmstorf, S & Schellnhuber, JH 2007, Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Harvard University, Cambridge. 8. Little, M 2010, Tipping Point - the Coming Global Weather Crisis, Michael Joseph Little, New York. 9. OECD 2004, The benefits of climate change policies: analytical and framework issues, OECD Publishing, France. 10. Parker, LC & Shapiro, MS 2008, Climate chaos: your health at risk: what you can do to protect yourself and your family, ABC-CLIO, New York. 11. PNAS n.d., Defining a Tipping Element and Its Tipping Point, viewed March, 25 2011, . 12. Polya 2007, Climate Criminals and Climate Genocide, viewed March, 25 2011, . 13. PTRC n. d., Weyburn-Midale CO2 Project, viewed March, 25 2011, . 14. Schwartz, M 2010, Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, viewed March, 25 2011, . 15. Smith, BJ, Schellnhuber, H & Mirza, M n. d., ‘Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis’, BioScience, Volume 49, 393–404. 16. Spratt, D and Sutton, P 2008, Climate ‘Code Red’ the Case for a Sustainability Emergency, viewed March, 25 2011,. 17. Stangeland, A 2007, Why CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) is an Important Strategy to Reduce Global CO2 Emissions, viewed March, 25 2011, . 18. Watts, A 2009, ‘Global warming to trigger earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches and volcanic eruptions,’ The Guardian, September 7, viewed March, 25 2011, /. 19. Weidman E 2010, ‘It's time to include the private sector in the climate change conversation’, The guardian, November 19, viewed March, 25 2011, . 20. Williams, C 2010, Ecology and Socialism: Solutions to Capitalist Ecological Crisis, Haymarket Books, Chicago. Read More