Dangerous Climate Change - Coursework Example

Running head: “Dangerous” climate change “Dangerous” Climate Change What is “dangerous” climate change? What strategies are available to avert the onset of dangerous climate change? Introduction It seems that with each passing year, we are experiencing changes in our weather patterns and climate. These changes often manifest through warmer weathers during summer seasons and in some cases, beyond the summer months. Some reports have shown European summers getting hotter, Alaskan streams and other lakes getting warmer, and our polar ice caps allegedly thawing (Schneider and Lane, 2006). More than just the actual warming of the planet, the impact of such warming has certainly captured the world’s attention. These are the major issues which have caused much concern among authorities and the public in general. This issue has managed to affect the environmental, as well as the business community with projected losses in profits accredited to climate change. Environmental experts claim that as our planet continues to grow warmer, more environmentally related disasters would be expected to occur with much stronger hurricanes, storms, and typhoons building up in the warmer oceans (Lemonic, 2008). These experts further emphasize that man has to address the issues which pertain to climate change in order to stem the progression of this phenomenon into dangerous levels. The word ‘dangerous’ seems to have now been strongly associated with climate change. Its actual meaning in the context of climate change will be discussed in this paper. This paper shall discuss climate change and the different ways by which its implications can actually be quantified to dangerous levels. It will discuss the point where climate change can be considered acceptable and the point where it is considered to be dangerous. This study is being undertaken in order to establish a thorough and comprehensive understanding of climate change as well as its implications to our society and our efforts towards reversing its impact. Discussion Defining ‘dangerous climate change’ ‘Dangerous climate change’ is a term which was introduced legally during the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (McGuire, n.d). Climate researchers have come up with different definitions in order to define the point at which climate change can be considered dangerous. Schneider and Lane (2006, as cited by Spratt and Sutton, 2008) have suggested different metrics in measuring climate change and such metrics have included: the risks to unique and threatened geophysical or biophysical systems; risks related with extreme weather events; total damages; temperature thresholds to large-scale events; risks to global ecosystems; loss of human cultures; key sustainability metrics of water, energy, agriculture, health, and biodiversity; the number of people put at risk; and the triggering of irreversible chain of events. These are all metrics which can be used in order to determine how dangerous the impact of climate change is. Dawson and Spannagle (2009) discuss that dangerous climate change is the degree of climate change which violates Article 2 of the UNFCCC. Article 2 basically sets forth that the function of the UNFCCC is to manage the emission of greenhouse gases to levels which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the weather and climate system (Dawson and Spannagle, 2009). In effect, such acceptable levels must be achieved within levels which would: “allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change; ensure that food production is not threatened; and enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner” (Dawson and Spannagle, 2009, p. 112). Article 2 does not use the exact words ‘dangerous climate change,’ however such words are accepted in terms of dangerous anthropogenic interference; it also refers to the man-made toxic chemical emissions which trigger climate changes beyond their natural patterns. The UNFCCC has not come up with a clear definition for dangerous climate change, nor has it come up with a clear definition for dangerous anthropogenic interference. In other words, no clear measures have been set forth in the clear conceptualization of the thresholds for dangerous climate change except the three principles previously mentioned. Dawson and Spannagle (2009) discuss that it may not actually be possible to adequately define the thresholds for ‘dangerous climate change.’ They further discuss that defining what constitutes dangerous climate change is often a value judgment; “it depends on who (sic) or what is being adversely affected, who is making the judgment, and what is considered to be acceptable or unacceptable” (Dawson and Spannagle, 2009, p. 112). Nevertheless, merely defining climate change is an inadequate undertaking; there is a greater need to consider what the society can do in order to reduce and manage its impact. Strategies to avert dangerous climate change In order to avert dangerous climate change, various strategies have been conceptualized by environmental scientists and concerned groups. Based on the UNDP (2007), in order to mitigate climate change, major and basic changes in the energy policies of all nations must be implemented. These changes would have to include policies on oil and fuel use, as well as the management of the CFC emissions from the processing and use of these energy sources (Lemonic, 2008). Firm and strict legal provisions have to be conceptualized for all nations in order to punish violators and in order to prevent the unmitigated emission of CFCs from such energy sources. The UNDP (2007) also suggests that in the passage of energy policies, placing a price on carbon emissions through the imposition of taxes is one of the more effective measures in controlling carbon emissions. The UNDP (2007) also discussed that in order to ensure sustainable carbon budgeting, the scarcity of our planet’s capacity to absorb GHGs must be considered. Without markets which indicate the “scarcity implied by the stabilization target of 450 ppm CO2e energy systems will continue to be governed by the perverse incentive to overuse carbon-intensive energy” (UNDP, 2007, p. 161). It is therefore important to establish a basic market-based reform which will help prevent dangerous climate change. Regulations and international cooperation must also help support the implementation of basic-market reform. The UNDP (2007) also suggests that negotiations on a possible framework for the Kyoto Protocol would help provide an opportunity for nations to fill in gaps for the management of climate change. The UNDP is also firm on setting forth an agenda for finance and technology transfer to developing nations with the ultimate goal of slowing the pace of deforestation in these areas (UNDP, 2007). In the 2010 World Development Report of the World Bank, the WB set forth that most of the changes which the UNFCCC wants to implement would require a substantial amount of assistance from the private sector (Miller, 2009). In order for such private investors to assist in the mitigation and adaptation of climate change, they would have to be invited to make investments in terms of eventual benefits they can gain from their investments. A major area which would need their initiative is on the development and dissemination of new climate friendly technology (Miller, 2009). It is therefore important for investments to be made on the acceleration of new and environmentally-friendly technology. The existing technologies would have to be changed because even if these were to be improved, they would still not be able to reduce global emissions by 50 to 80% -- levels which are needed in order to avert the risk of dangerous climate change (Miller, 2009). Moreover, time is our current worse enemy. Coming up with a new and effective technology would likely take many years to complete and distribute for widespread use. In the meantime, rapidly growing nations like China, India, and Brazil would likely increase their use of factories, cars, power plants, and buildings in order to strongly establish their status as economically progressive nations (Miller, 2009). This trend would likely make it more difficult and costly to introduce alternatives in energy use. Lovelock (2010) has expressed his skepticism of models which predict the earth’s situation in the future fifty or so years from now. These models portray a grim picture of our planet and they point out the importance of implementing measures to prevent this phenomenon from unfolding. Lovelock (2010) is more doubtful of the accuracy of these models and the suggestions of experts in relation to these models. Instead he suggests that we do our best to cut back on our forest cutting and our use of CFCs, but more importantly, “our greatest efforts should go into adaptation, to preparing these parts of the Earth least likely to be affected by adverse climate change as the safe havens for a civilized humanity” (Lovelock, 2010, p. 5). He also expressed his doubts about the earth ever regaining its lushness; he believes that some of the changes are already irreversible for our planet. Nevertheless, he suggests that it is still prudent for us to do what we can in order to save our planet and stem the impact of dangerous climate change (Lovelock, 2010). The above suggestions from the UNDP and the World Bank have found implementation in both the private and public sector. Its implementation is not yet widespread; however, with more nations joining the cause, it is possible to reverse or slow the point where ‘dangerous climate change’ would be reached. Works Cited Dawson, B. & Spannagle, M. (2009). The complete guide to climate change. New York: Taylor and Francis Lemonic, M. (2008). Global Warming: Beyond the Tipping Point. Scientific American. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-warming-beyond-the-co2 Lovelock, J. (2010). The Vanishing Face of Gaia. New York: Basic Books McGuire, B. (n.d). Issues in Risk Science: Dangerous Climate Change: rising sea levels and ocean circulation changes. Benfield Hazard Research Centre. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://www.abuhrc.org/Publications/Issues%20in%20Risk%20Science%20-%205.pdf Miller, A. (2009). Getting on a technology pathway to avoid dangerous climate change. World Bank. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/getting-technology-pathway-avoid-dangerous-climate-change Schneider, S. & Lane, J. (2006). An Overview of “Dangerous” Climate Change. Stanford University. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Schneider-lane.pdf Spratt, D. & Sutton, P. (2008). Dangerous Climate Change. Global Greenhouse Warming. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/dangerous-climate-change.html United Nations Development Plan (2007). Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation. UNDP. Retrieved 22 March 2011 from http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Chapter3.pdf Read More